Large Time Frame Overview
In 2023 we have trended predominantly higher, but encountered sell side pressure around August which lead to 3 months of bear side movement. With that correction we tested some keys areas, mainly the 4240, yearly POC, as well another high volume node inside of the balanced trading we were experiencing throughout the beginning of 2023, prior to the breakout to new yearly highs, which was roughly the 4130 level.
At the end of October and now into November we have experienced bull strength, breaking all the larger TF down behavior and now 1 TF-ing up on a larger TF basis, with 4 weeks of moving higher so far.
4600 was tagged Wednesday during the RTH session, which was my larger TF topside target. Overall the action has suggested stalling behavior. If we regain 4600, this would open up the 2023 high of 4683.50.
Alternatively to the downside, the 4430 LVN/Oct High below seems like the a likely area to see buyers step back in, if we get correction. This target would likely take several days of trading to get to, and we would need to lose a couple of ledges on the smaller TF to open this idea up, what I see currently would be the 4550 level first followed by 4480.
If 4430 is unable to be held, 4350 is the next area I would expect potential support to come in.
Losing 4350 would open up a test of the yearly POC from above, 4240.
Small Time Frame Overview
The last 2 weeks of trading has been relative balance at these highs and yesterday we had more of the same of that after a failure to breakdown.
The overnight inventory is again long, trading higher after the close, able to move outside of the upper range of balance to a high so far of 84, although the profile did not develop increasing volumes at those levels and now has trended back towards balance.
If we are to continue to trend higher, I don't want to see the ETH L of 4570 violated. If this unfolds, I would be looking for us to test the Sept high, 4597.50, for a second time, expecting more of a battle to occur in this area than what happened Wednesday with the swift rejection.
Above 4600 opens up the current yearly high as an extended target although I suspect that is more movement than today will offer, but important to consider for next week. I think it is more likely to get some back and forth trading above 4600 to develop additional market structure along the way.
Falling back into balance and losing the ETH low will make things less clear and back in balance. I would expect to see back and forth rotations with a lack of clarity of whos in control.
If shorts are to be taken inside this the 50-70 bracket, we need to see clean bear rotations with small bull pull backs, and likely it would be an IBL break setup. Shorts under 4566 start to make odds less favorable for 3R targeting the 4550 region, nothing should be taken below 4555. I suspect it is less likely that we reverse the entire previous day and setup a pRTH L breakdown, although possible and in that instance the extended downside target would be 4535.
In 2023 we have trended predominantly higher, but encountered sell side pressure around August which lead to 3 months of bear side movement. With that correction we tested some keys areas, mainly the 4240, yearly POC, as well another high volume node inside of the balanced trading we were experiencing throughout the beginning of 2023, prior to the breakout to new yearly highs, which was roughly the 4130 level.
At the end of October and now into November we have experienced bull strength, breaking all the larger TF down behavior and now 1 TF-ing up on a larger TF basis, with 4 weeks of moving higher so far.
4600 was tagged Wednesday during the RTH session, which was my larger TF topside target. Overall the action has suggested stalling behavior. If we regain 4600, this would open up the 2023 high of 4683.50.
Alternatively to the downside, the 4430 LVN/Oct High below seems like the a likely area to see buyers step back in, if we get correction. This target would likely take several days of trading to get to, and we would need to lose a couple of ledges on the smaller TF to open this idea up, what I see currently would be the 4550 level first followed by 4480.
If 4430 is unable to be held, 4350 is the next area I would expect potential support to come in.
Losing 4350 would open up a test of the yearly POC from above, 4240.
Small Time Frame Overview
The last 2 weeks of trading has been relative balance at these highs and yesterday we had more of the same of that after a failure to breakdown.
The overnight inventory is again long, trading higher after the close, able to move outside of the upper range of balance to a high so far of 84, although the profile did not develop increasing volumes at those levels and now has trended back towards balance.
If we are to continue to trend higher, I don't want to see the ETH L of 4570 violated. If this unfolds, I would be looking for us to test the Sept high, 4597.50, for a second time, expecting more of a battle to occur in this area than what happened Wednesday with the swift rejection.
Above 4600 opens up the current yearly high as an extended target although I suspect that is more movement than today will offer, but important to consider for next week. I think it is more likely to get some back and forth trading above 4600 to develop additional market structure along the way.
Falling back into balance and losing the ETH low will make things less clear and back in balance. I would expect to see back and forth rotations with a lack of clarity of whos in control.
If shorts are to be taken inside this the 50-70 bracket, we need to see clean bear rotations with small bull pull backs, and likely it would be an IBL break setup. Shorts under 4566 start to make odds less favorable for 3R targeting the 4550 region, nothing should be taken below 4555. I suspect it is less likely that we reverse the entire previous day and setup a pRTH L breakdown, although possible and in that instance the extended downside target would be 4535.