dereckcoatney

Russia's MOEX

Short
MOEX:MOEX   MOSCOWEXCHANGE
This one is the weirdest thing I've seen. Decimation in the crash, followed by a NASDAQ-like rocket to new highs afterwards, then a total break with that structure. I'm frankly at a bit of a loss here. This feels like diving into Russian-language literature. The letters don't even look recognizable. So now we're in a new downward sloping channel that feels totally detached from the previous structure.

I guess this is what an oligarch's playground looks like plotted on a graph?

I don't have a lot of historical data for this, but the long-term structure looks very, very bullish (below). If the world's markets do puke again soon, I will be keenly interested to see how this performs. It broke that lower (orange) trend line in the crash earlier this year, and I would expect it to do so again. If it can hold, this may somehow moon soonish. If it breaks, we might actually be looking at a rare falling broadening pattern (red). That implies an extremely volatile future. But, these typically resolve with an incredible moonshot off the lower red channel that will take us off the charts to the upside.


Keep in mind, don't immediately assume that that is bullish because it might just as well be "bullish." In other words, it is only a reflection of price. A moonshot like that hypothesized by this chart on an entire index could very well be foreshadowing a period of hyper-inflation.

It's not clear to me though how exactly that could transpire. They have only modest inflation now, and they do not have a precarious net capital account. I am not an economist, but my understanding is that hyperinflation is more often the result of having a large world reserve currency-denominated debt that cannot be serviced, and Russia just doesn't appear to have that problem. It is my understanding that they have more FX reserves than USD-denominated debt.

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