As a result of forming a triangle on SPY over the last couple of days, here is a possible Elliott Wave count for SPY. A bearish view is that we came off the September highs in a leading diagonal for wave 1, then began forming a large corrective 3-3-5 flat for 2. Triangles are often found in wave 4s, so I believe we could be nearly done with the 5 waves of "C" of...
*If* this ES wave count is correct, the next move down will be a complete terror (blessing).
This counter rally has retraced to the 65% fib, characteristic of a wave 2 (pink degree).
3 is the money shot. I have placed it on the chart, but in reality it would go much lower.
As an uber-bear, I am glad to see some selling enter the arena, however, we remain within this channel that bulls will identify either as a bull flag or the handle of a cup and handle formation.
I would prefer that it were a bull trap. But, until we clear it, we bears must remain cautious. While we have been striking lower lows in price, the RSI has been...
ES Is taking the form of a bullish falling wedge (much smaller than the last one thank goodness). If it does not break down, it has the potential to bounce again, after which, if it does, I of course, true to form, still expect it to fall again.
I think we may just have concluded our second counter rally. We should start moving down now.
The first counter rallies, are the very sharpest, and these were certainly doozies.
Sharpest rallies happen in bear markets, not in bull markets.
Was expecting a 3-wave move out of the falling wedge. They just came almost all at once instead of with a break in between. Think we're done or virtually done now, expecting big drop now or very soon. Slope of last leg says markets are doomed.
The three wave bounce out of the wedge that I anticipated appears to have completed today. I expect we will now head down to the original broadening top trend line next, where I do expect another bounce.
Watching the price action here, rally doesn't feel quite done. When we turn, it will be unmistakable. We're not "impulsing" down; feels like we are only "correcting" down. Here is a possible scenario.
Spare me that "he's a bull" baloney.
Am trying to the get the timing right. :)
Explanation is in the chart. The question is: are we done with the first major correction off the highs? If we're done now, we should see serious selling heading to the broadening top trend line.
If we're not done, then we have completed the first leg, and begun the second leg of a larger 3-leg structure, after which we will then go visit that trend line.
Here is my thought on SPX. You all thought I went all permabull, but I was referring to this potential bounce out of this wedge that we are now witnessing.
I believe it is a leading diagonal, a completed 1st impulse wave down and we are now correcting it.
We have reached the 38.2% fib today, which is enough, but today did not feel "toppy." We may push up to...
After today's price action, we now have a clean falling wedge forming, which is not good for the bears. Complete with bullish divergence on the RSI. In order to invalidate this, we will need the wedge to break down and print both a lower low in price and on the RSI oscillator. We need to fall hard, now, or else we risk this entire move being a mere correction,...
So apparently someone with an axe to grind on Twitter got me temporarily restricted, which is completely retarded, but here is a short-term projection for SPY. We are above an important long-term trend line that I believe will provide some temporary support.
It is the "original" broadening top channel (longer-term view below).
After we test it, I believe we...
I'll be brief, but this removes all doubt, for me personally. I've been watching this develop for years.
It's a long-term weekly chart, so up months like July and August are irrelevant.
What does a market bottom look like? From the 2009 lows, we began making successively higher highs with greater and greater momentum, as indicated by the RSI. That is...
A wonderful opportunity to test a tenet of Elliott Wave Theory lies before us at this moment, before we can use hindsight to fix our wave counts (hehe).
In Elliott Wave Theory, wave 3 cannot be the shortest wave. One reasonable way to count the structure from the March lows is as I have it labeled above. If that is the correct count, wave 3 looks pretty short,...
In the grand cosmic portrait that the stock market has been painting for us over the years, Apple has led the charge for some time. And in fact, I am predicting a major market downturn, but given the weight of Apple's stock in the indices and in our collective psychology, until it falls, nothing falls.
That said, i believe the top is imminent and there is a...