We can see three higher highs on the chart. At the second higher high, the lines were drawing a class C divergence, which is the weakest, a slight histogram divergence and a class A divergence on the FI . Price did fall, but only to test the broken resistance and rally to a new high. At the current high, the signals are even more obvious. The lines have drawn a class A divergence, another class A divergence on the FI and a continuation of the histogram divergence, which shows how little steam was left for the bulls. Now look at the . It is very rare to see such a clear divergence between price and . experts see divergences immediately, but for a amateur like myself, this is a clear divergence between price and .
First support comes out at 39, but I dont expect a bounce from it, because it has been allready tested (if you look closely you will see a daily ). First good support comes only at 35.50, and that will be a buying area. If price goes to 35.50, the EMAs will be around that level too, as they will flatten out because of the fall. A rejection from that level would be enough proof that a new rally will emerg, if not to a new high, at lest to 39$. Note that these two support levels are in an area where there is strong multi year support.
The second target would be the 30-33$ area. Allthough not so important if you take into consideration the last 10 years, it has served as good resistance and support for the last few years.
Now that I have a short bias in Microsoft , I will trade using the . Currently the daily is in sell mode, but I would like to get my short a few cents higher. I will be posting charts with my entry, if I don't miss it of course. I think that the next few days there will be a push to 40.50$.
Microsoft has a very high correlation with the overall market, which I don't really like because I usually take positions on the indexes and they can both go against me at the same time. The Dow is near the all time high, and I believe that the nasty divergence I pointed out a few weeks ago didn't play out yet. The Nasdaq, which is the technology index, is much weeker, and I think it might be at a very very important level where shorting would be fantastic. The NFP is coming tommorow and that might be the trigger for a selloff.