jhannellefrancis

The Lows before the Highs

Short
OANDA:NAS100USD   US Nas 100
Weekly Analyses: 03/04 - 03/08

Monday London Session Lows

Following the bullish rally last Friday (03/01), NAS ended the week at ATHs. Using the 1H fibs on my chart, these ATHs were at the -61.80% fib extension level at 18331.2.

Afterwhich, price was met with rejection signalling a 15min HL at 18282.9.

As I mentioned in my previous posts, the bearish retracements should continue into Monday and Tuesday. Afterwhich, I will be looking for buys towards the end of the week to create new ATHs. Since we cannot buy from the current Highs, we must first sell to create HLs on our hourly TFs before creating new ATHs once again.

At market session open on Sunday NAS went bullish which has held throughout the session until signalling a 15min LH at 18327.6.

It is clear that Asian session is bullish which usually tends to hold throughout until London session. So from now until then, the current 15min LH could continue bullish to form a HH. If a 15min HH is formed, that is even more confirmation for sells.

At London session, I will be monitoring the Lows formed. As of now, sells are valid but this may not play out until London session.

Since price is coming from ATHs on every time frame, a retracement to at least the 2H HL is required. This is because the 2H is the only TF at a HIGH not a HH, so price must sell to a HL before continuing its trend move.

2H HL can end at 18129.8 for the following reasons:
1. Area of retest of 1H daily HH breakline.

2. 38% fib retracement level on 2H TF from Low to High.

3. 0% fib retracement level on 1H TF from Low to High. Since the 1H HH has been completed at -61.8% fib extn, price usually makes it way back to the 0% starting line.

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My sell entry:
18321.80

Sell TP: 18129

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