"Sell in May and Go Away" has not worked the majority of prior years (I went to 2013). Recent 2022 double bounce was at 13,000 (May, 2021) May bottom. Since May of 2013 the NAZ is up 487%. QE and heavy Propping is no longer, I am sure that this had much to do with prior upward momentum. With interest rates quickly rising and Tech PE ratios (not exactly low), may "Sell in May" return? I am not so sure it will. It seems like much of recent upward movement tends to happen around off times/periods. Examples: Holidays, Overnight Futures and Summer months. These are lower volume times and are better spots for a prop or two. White arrow is projection based on recent years (during May - May).
With no QE and all that is going on, the Yellow arrow would be the traditional 35% drop from ATH and the return of "Sell in May and Go Away".
Current NAZ level is at 50% retracement, next move will most likely provide the clue. Since 1/22 we had 50 trading days lower and 9 got us back to 50% retracement (maybe too quick). Without the backstop of QE/Fed/Stimulus, etc. just not seeing how we power to or above ATH. The low volume propping can only get you so far and the Summer months may be next/last push (which is why we need to stay Bullish, a few more months).
With no QE and all that is going on, the Yellow arrow would be the traditional 35% drop from ATH and the return of "Sell in May and Go Away".
Current NAZ level is at 50% retracement, next move will most likely provide the clue. Since 1/22 we had 50 trading days lower and 9 got us back to 50% retracement (maybe too quick). Without the backstop of QE/Fed/Stimulus, etc. just not seeing how we power to or above ATH. The low volume propping can only get you so far and the Summer months may be next/last push (which is why we need to stay Bullish, a few more months).
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4HR 2 YR view, Equilibrium is at 14,000. Seems like more slightly sellers than buyer's above Fib 50%. Bottom Yellow is 35% from ATH. May see retest of 14,000 prior to May 2022 period.
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1HR since 3/15, 100 MA White, 200 MA Blue, 14575 is Key Level and Test, Long above and Short below. 14,000 is logical target/support on any pull back.
1) Down Play, 14575 to 14444 to 14300 to 14000.
2) Up play, 14850 test or Drop/Pop off 14575 back to 15850 test to start next Box. Volume below is OK, no signals I can find.
1) Down Play, 14575 to 14444 to 14300 to 14000.
2) Up play, 14850 test or Drop/Pop off 14575 back to 15850 test to start next Box. Volume below is OK, no signals I can find.
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NAZ needs to pass and retest 14820, for retrace back up. Under 14750 is Strong Short. Looking like Bearish PA today.
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Stay Long off bounce during Dead Zone. Drop most likely EOD.
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14750, NAZ needs to stay above should we see PB. Buy the Dip is getting weak.
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No pass of 14880, may see 14790 test.
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14880 pass to Pivot. Again on low volume, 30% off. Not sure I hop on this. Will look for decent drop and hold to form.
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EOM or early April target.
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Updated Box and Upper Range
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Note on above, a turn or direction change takes days to develop. This could be consolidation to go higher, we need to watch.
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3-29 projection, White Arrow is Support and bounce and Yellow Vertical is Run. Yellow in final Box is projection. White vertical is 3-31
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TL's to 14140. Rejection at 15300 or 15124 and multiple failed attempts to get higher would be the time to go short.
