OANDA:NATGASUSD   Natural Gas
3867 31 72
2 months ago
No question the ICL is behind us. I underestimated NatGas' first daily cycle.
We are near to the previous top and the 1st daily cycle just had begun...
We printed the intermediate bottom at the 200 SMA and Fibonacci 50% retracement .

We are going to break to new highs in this first daily cycle. Most probably we are going to test the previous high at 3.33 in the following 2-3 days. That's the first important level where we could stop a little bit and wait for the 10 EMA to catch up the price.

Indicators
Crossed the BB's middle line and riding the upper Bollinger Band
MACD and TSI is bullish
RSI is overbought but can stay overbought for days

I'm still holding my longs because this daily cycle has at least 10 more days to run. I will try to close my longs at this daily cycle top in the following 2 weeks and re-enter at the next DCL in January.
I will not try to short it here as we are at the beginning of the new Intermediate cycle.
LONG UPDATE (this is just an update on a previous idea : we are long already. I don't suggest to enter or add to the position here)
2 months ago
Comment: I'm closing 50% of the NatGas position today.
We reached the previous top.
2 months ago
Comment: This is when a vehicle is not manipulated...
Acting like a textbook.
a month ago
Comment: Heading down to the 10 EMA. Probably on Tuesday we will turn up again.
snapshot
a month ago
Comment: I would have liked to see the tag of 10 EMA but didn't happen...
I'm not going to add or reopen the closed 50% here. We are going to peek this daily cycle between 15-25 December.
snapshot
a month ago
Comment: I'M closing 25% again at 3.59. Going to ride to the cycle high with the 25% of the original position.
a month ago
Comment: If the key reversal holds by the close ( 1more hour) I will get out of the rest of the position. I want you to see the power of the key reversal after a rally like this.
snapshot
a month ago
Comment: Closing the rest of the position.
UGAZ reversed on high volume today.
a month ago
Trade closed manually
a month ago
Comment: New trade posted.
archie123
2 months ago
Thanks so very much for the update. Really appreciate your insight and analysis.
+1 Reply
Ta-Trade
2 months ago
Still long m8....Best wishes
+1 Reply
umodonati
2 months ago
thanks a lot for your prescius analysis
+1 Reply
al.calgary
2 months ago
How many days per cycle do you consider for daily cycle count?
Reply
chartwatchers PRO al.calgary
a month ago
@al.calgary, Depends which daily cycle , and bear market or bull market. Details you will find on my website.
Reply
al.calgary chartwatchers
a month ago
@chartwatchers, Thanks. What is the link of your website?
Reply
Cheetsbaby84
2 months ago
Thank you Apri!
+1 Reply
ice_holly01
2 months ago
Thanks for the nice chart!
+1 Reply
andrej123456
2 months ago
Hello chart .You probably can know. Why the price cant go down even on 8hr chart, bears cant sold it, why ? I am already long with a smaller position, shorting DGAZ
Reply
FFMEO
2 months ago
Excellent forecast. It was like a ride on a furious GasBull. I like this. Thanks a lot.
+1 Reply
ma.sanjuy
a month ago
tks for yr excellent n precise analysis.
+1 Reply
michaelkid_wang
a month ago
@ chartwatchers, I am curious why 10 EMA? Looks like RSI and MACD have more room to go down.
+1 Reply
chartwatchers PRO michaelkid_wang
a month ago
@michaelkid_wang, That was working in the past... This time we couldn't even tag it. RSI will stay overbought for weeks.
Reply
Cheetsbaby84
a month ago
Thanks again Apri!
+1 Reply
Cheetsbaby84
a month ago
Hi Apri, Any update on this move today
+1 Reply
watsonzou26
a month ago
Great analysis, April.
Reply
MassimoMattioli
a month ago
Hey Arpi,
based on your charts it seems that we will not touch 4$ during this daily cycle,,,,
would like to open some shorts around that area,,,any thoughts,,??

Thanks

Reply
mgdogan
a month ago
I am still short from 3.25 when it gapped up, i had a SL at 3.83 and A TP at 2.2, do you see a reversal?
Reply
chartwatchers PRO mgdogan
a month ago
@mgdogan, You might be lucky and get out at break even. We just started to short.
Reply
shares9k
a month ago
Hi Arpi, Great analysis on NATGAS. Last time when you posted longs I missed the call. Please let us know when is the good time to buy shorts
Reply
Excellent trade and analysis. I exited my UGAZ and will watch for your updates.
Reply
bhowe
a month ago
Are you going to try DGAZ now? or wait for a long entry......
Reply
watsonzou26
a month ago
Are you going to start short here? 
Reply
chartwatchers PRO watsonzou26
a month ago
@watsonzou26, yes. New trade already posted.
Reply
Mstan1984
a month ago
Outstanding trade from your side. As a new trader I have jumped in to short too early - 3 days ago and it took alot of my mental energy to ride it all the way up. Hoping to at least break even by tomorrow or the day after. Again thank you for your detailed guidence.
Reply
Iliketacos
a month ago
You will be fine! This will go deeper than you think.
Reply
Iliketacos
a month ago
Here is a bone you....enjoy....https://youtu.be/P_mBtAkkl5c
Reply
TexasTower85 Iliketacos
a month ago
@Iliketacos, This guy is good. Any other place to follow him than youtube?
Reply
Iliketacos TexasTower85
a month ago
@TexasTower85, its me, I have my own room.
Reply
edumas2 PRO
a month ago
Great stuff as usual!
Reply
man you are the best
Reply
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