Quant_

Gas Upper Trendline - Short Position

Short
OANDA:NATGASUSD   CFDs on Natural Gas
Gas Upper Trendline - Short Trade

Entry: $2.845
TP & RR: $2.693 (2.08)
Stop Loss: $2.918

REASONS FOR THE TRADE

After the breakout from the descending channel , we see the price sliding up an inclined trend line . However, the price is now reaching major resistance and I believe there will be a small pullback before potential continuation to the 1.618 Fib Level. The Market Flow indicator is also starting to revert, indicating weakness.

The entry is somewhat conservative since we give the price some more room to continue up before we enter the trade. Opening a position against the trend is rarely a smart idea. The Stop Loss is well above the trendline, which doesn't give us a great RR, but at least we will have more time to assess the price action and potentially close the position if things are not looking too good.
Trade closed manually: Update: Cancelling the order, as it's not developing as I was expecting. We missed the entry by 0.003, but depending on your exchange you may have been filled. In this case, you can either leave the position or close with a tiny profit (almost break-even).

My interpretation is that price is cooling off before another spike up and entering another channel. We may see divergence on the indicator before a setup reveals itself.

Comment: Pretty much what I expected to happen in the update I described above. Good thing we closed the position. Of course, the price can still make a dive down, but for me, this trade no longer provides a good setup.

Order cancelled: I am closing this trade and the updates for it.

Those of you who stuck to the plan were rewarded for your patience and the stress you had to endure for the position going against you.

If I still had the position, I would just trial the SL and let the market determine my profits as this may go much further down than one would expect.
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Comments

Same thought, and if past performace works....It could fall much more and very fast

Reply
Quant_ JAY_Cabuxo
@JAY_Cabuxo, yeah, if it starts trending down it should be a pretty sharp drop. I still think, however, that we may see a 1.618 Fib Level first, which aligns with the high from the beginning of November. I guess time will show.
Reply
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