NAS-100 Likely to Overextend to 8455 Then Down to 7311
While many people have suggested bearish outlooks for the longest time - and well before in this case, the NAS100 was 7800 - many of the indices have only continued to make an unseemly run.
In this instance, I bet on the fact that many of the richest "investors" as gross as it sounds, bet on failing economic data to force rate cuts to squeeze the market higher - this theory turned out to be correct. Donald Trump has continued to force trade uncertainty as a prime reason for the Federal Reserve to contemplate and likely induce rate cuts in the United States.
The market has already priced in several rate cuts in Q4 2019 and the Federal Reserve is unlikely to disappoint: beginning next week. As long as the Trump administration at-least pumps out the fact that "talks are continuing" with China (even if they go no where), that will be enough for it to have a non-factor in the overall markets.
Personally, I am targeting a peak of 8455 for the NAS100 before September likely pushed by momentum from earnings (which have been a pleasant surprise), a continued dovish Fed (outlook), half decent GDP and economic data, and the likely rate cut next week.
In the longer-term I see a correction beginning sometime in Q4 2019. From there, a rebound or further downside will depend on the current interest rates around the world, the dovishness or lack of from Feds around the world, and whether key economic data stabilizes, rises, or continues to show a bleak outlook.
The most important time range for long-term outlook determination will be December Q4 (2019) into January Q1 (2020).
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Note: While GDP remained somewhat healthy in the US at 2.1%, this was pushed by very strong consumer habits and spending. It is important to note that consumer spending is typically the last to fall and last to recover when economic data turns sour. Therefore, it is important to take this quarters GDP data in the USA with a grain of salt; however, on surface, it is strong enough to push the market higher.
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- zSplit
In this instance, I bet on the fact that many of the richest "investors" as gross as it sounds, bet on failing economic data to force rate cuts to squeeze the market higher - this theory turned out to be correct. Donald Trump has continued to force trade uncertainty as a prime reason for the Federal Reserve to contemplate and likely induce rate cuts in the United States.
The market has already priced in several rate cuts in Q4 2019 and the Federal Reserve is unlikely to disappoint: beginning next week. As long as the Trump administration at-least pumps out the fact that "talks are continuing" with China (even if they go no where), that will be enough for it to have a non-factor in the overall markets.
Personally, I am targeting a peak of 8455 for the NAS100 before September likely pushed by momentum from earnings (which have been a pleasant surprise), a continued dovish Fed (outlook), half decent GDP and economic data, and the likely rate cut next week.
In the longer-term I see a correction beginning sometime in Q4 2019. From there, a rebound or further downside will depend on the current interest rates around the world, the dovishness or lack of from Feds around the world, and whether key economic data stabilizes, rises, or continues to show a bleak outlook.
The most important time range for long-term outlook determination will be December Q4 (2019) into January Q1 (2020).
--
Note: While GDP remained somewhat healthy in the US at 2.1%, this was pushed by very strong consumer habits and spending. It is important to note that consumer spending is typically the last to fall and last to recover when economic data turns sour. Therefore, it is important to take this quarters GDP data in the USA with a grain of salt; however, on surface, it is strong enough to push the market higher.
--
- zSplit
I think its still possible we can reach ATHs or go higher, BUT the Fed would have to cut 25 bps in each of September, October and December. Probably won't happen.