The NDX set a peak on November 22, 2021 and has been trending down ever since.
Thing to note:
- the 50SMA (green line) is looking like it's heading down to make a bearish cross below the 100SMA (yellow line). This would be extremely bearish, especially on the weekly TF
- the NDX formed a Bear Flag channel from the June low @ $11,040, and saw a massive rejection from the 100SMA & the top of the BF resistance @ $13,750. This rejection led to 3 red candlesticks in a row, the 3rd one BREAKING the BF support for the FIRST time since it formed.
- IF this pattern breaks down, I will expect a re-test of the June low @ $11,040, which coincides with the 200SMA
- 2nd target lower would be the completion of the BF measured move to $10,650
- 3rd target would be the Feb 2020 high between $9700 & $9200
- 4th target is a MAJOR IF! IF we see a massive breakdown, the next major support and high liquidity zone would be down to the 2018 high/low between $8100 & $7200
Please keep a few things in mind:
1. When looking at the higher timeframes, we are mapping out the macro targets and NOT looking at each and every possible bounce on the way down
2. In NO WAY do these low targets NEED to play-out, but it would NOT be responsible of us to ignore the potential, especially since my low targets are MAJOR support and MASSIVE liquidity zones
It is possible and maybe even probably that we see a bounce back to re-test the BF support zone and the 9 & 21SMAs to set a lower low before heading down.
Always keep an open mind and you will do well
Thing to note:
- the 50SMA (green line) is looking like it's heading down to make a bearish cross below the 100SMA (yellow line). This would be extremely bearish, especially on the weekly TF
- the NDX formed a Bear Flag channel from the June low @ $11,040, and saw a massive rejection from the 100SMA & the top of the BF resistance @ $13,750. This rejection led to 3 red candlesticks in a row, the 3rd one BREAKING the BF support for the FIRST time since it formed.
- IF this pattern breaks down, I will expect a re-test of the June low @ $11,040, which coincides with the 200SMA
- 2nd target lower would be the completion of the BF measured move to $10,650
- 3rd target would be the Feb 2020 high between $9700 & $9200
- 4th target is a MAJOR IF! IF we see a massive breakdown, the next major support and high liquidity zone would be down to the 2018 high/low between $8100 & $7200
Please keep a few things in mind:
1. When looking at the higher timeframes, we are mapping out the macro targets and NOT looking at each and every possible bounce on the way down
2. In NO WAY do these low targets NEED to play-out, but it would NOT be responsible of us to ignore the potential, especially since my low targets are MAJOR support and MASSIVE liquidity zones
It is possible and maybe even probably that we see a bounce back to re-test the BF support zone and the 9 & 21SMAs to set a lower low before heading down.
Always keep an open mind and you will do well