For those that keep thinking that we are due for a major correction, this chart says no. As you can see we have had 2 consolidation periods this year. The longest and choppiest was Feb to June. Then it kicked up a notch and consolidated again for about 6 weeks in July and Aug. We then broke out of the consolidation on Aug 24th and we are near mid channel. To be clear, I'm not predicting anything. In fact, any movement within this channel (which is quite large) would fall under the normal and to be expected movement within a broader secular bull trend.
My expectation is for the index to continue higher from here (fluctuations expected) at least until it comes close to the upper end of the channel. Then likely a reversion to the mean. Once again, not a prediction but a weight of the evidence expectation.
I am not ruling out a correction, one could come fast and hard at anytime for any number of reasons. But, absent any underlying reason or event, I'm looking for higher highs in the weeks and months ahead. Of course one should always draw their own conclusions. These are mine. Hope it helps. Ideas, not investing / trading advice.
My expectation is for the index to continue higher from here (fluctuations expected) at least until it comes close to the upper end of the channel. Then likely a reversion to the mean. Once again, not a prediction but a weight of the evidence expectation.
I am not ruling out a correction, one could come fast and hard at anytime for any number of reasons. But, absent any underlying reason or event, I'm looking for higher highs in the weeks and months ahead. Of course one should always draw their own conclusions. These are mine. Hope it helps. Ideas, not investing / trading advice.
Comment:
If the break-out on Aug 24 fails and drops below the breakout area AND moves below the last higher low of 14,773, I would be concerned.
Comment:
10/4 Here we are a one month later and it appears we are at an area that needs to hold on the lower channel trend line. Shortly after having posted this I had taken money off the table and I'm over 70% cash position. Should we break much lower, I'll be looking to move to a higher cash position. All TBD.
Just to be clear, my thesis of the secular bull market still holds since corrections can and do happen in longer term bull runs.
Just to be clear, my thesis of the secular bull market still holds since corrections can and do happen in longer term bull runs.
Ideas I publish are my own. They are not meant to be investment / trading advice. You are encouraged to do your own due diligence.
I may or may not take any trade published and I am under no obligation to post any action or update to any idea.
I may or may not take any trade published and I am under no obligation to post any action or update to any idea.
