Superlong term view on Nasdaq.
Interesting how spikes in VIX are followed by strong rallies (40%-100%) of the time once VIX calms down.
Seems right now Nasdaq is in the 7000 to 11000 long term channel. So strategy seems simple, buy at 7000 - 8000 points, sell at 10000 - 11000 points.
Now once we start seeing the effects of COVID on the economy, I see two extreme scenarios playing out over the next years that would take nasdaq out of this bounded range:
Option 1: a melt down to 4750 points, which can be obtained by extrapolating 2009 low, and matches perfectly with the 2000 top around 2021.
Option 2: a melt up proped up by the infinite never ending no limit QE from the FED, which could cause algos to go crazy and push Nasdaq to 20000 if we assume the same behaviour as in 1998, when after the peak in volatility Nasdaq 100 rose more than 100%.
Interesting how spikes in VIX are followed by strong rallies (40%-100%) of the time once VIX calms down.
Seems right now Nasdaq is in the 7000 to 11000 long term channel. So strategy seems simple, buy at 7000 - 8000 points, sell at 10000 - 11000 points.
Now once we start seeing the effects of COVID on the economy, I see two extreme scenarios playing out over the next years that would take nasdaq out of this bounded range:
Option 1: a melt down to 4750 points, which can be obtained by extrapolating 2009 low, and matches perfectly with the 2000 top around 2021.
Option 2: a melt up proped up by the infinite never ending no limit QE from the FED, which could cause algos to go crazy and push Nasdaq to 20000 if we assume the same behaviour as in 1998, when after the peak in volatility Nasdaq 100 rose more than 100%.