So Nasdaq is quite overextended if you look at the weekly chart.
RSI is flashing signals previously seen in 2000, 2008, 2019 and March 2020.
MACD is only comparable to 2000.
From the 2009 low around 1050, Nasdaq has 10x is price in 11 years.
Price is close to the upper long term trend channel (around 11300 points).
Price has broken the 2018...
Volume profile confirms we are currently at the most frequent price.
RSI does not seem stretched.
Price is in the lower bound of the channel.
Pump continues at least until q2 earnings report season starts...
Short term bullish until 3400, then down.
Incredible stock. From 130$ in March to 439$ in July. Stock is currently at 1.61 fib extension, should retrace soon to the previous resistance line which would act as support at around 340$, then go to 620$.
Two charts, left side shows volume profile and current trend. Right side, long term trend.
Short term I think they’ll pump it before q2 results and then it will drop again to the bottom of blue or yellow channel. Observe that volume above 200$ is quite low, so I would expect a drop until 180$ easy.
Long term, Observe the regression fits almost perfectly with a...
So I just draw the long and short position data of the leveraged funds from the COT report.
As you can observe, once the leveraged funds start increasing their short positions (red line) and these are above the long positions (green line), a few weeks later we have a steep drop in BTC price, between 50% to 60%.
Nobody in tradingview is looking at this data,...
Previous bull markets have started preceded by a big cup and handle formation.
RSI and ADX seem to point a new multiyear bull market about to start. Macro context is quite favorable to gold (monetary inflation, negative interest rates, recession...).
Yellow bars mimic the bull market from 1975 to 1979.
Blue bars mimic market from 2003 to 2011.
Given the drop that we have witnessed during the last days of June 2020, many voices are claiming again that a 50% crash is coming, so I just went back to the chart in order to assess the probabilities of this event happening.
On the left side, you have the las ten years of the SP500. This multiyear bull market has been primarily driven by liquidity.
BTC historical chart shows clearly that we may be see the despair phase of the second bitcoin bubble following the typical bubble pattern.
The drop of March can be considered as a "glitch" due to traders and hedge funds facing margin calls from equity markets which made them close different positions in their portfolios in order to meet margin requirements.
Weekly chart shows massive divergences on RSI.
While in March the drop was caused by liquidity problems, in August it could be for fundamental problems:
-IMF just published today World Economic Outlook. Expect GDP growth to be -8% for US in 2020. Europe worse.
- Potential second wave of COVID.
- 30% delinquency on mortgage payments and loan defaults coming.
Nasdaq inside the channel started on 2009 lows until today.
Short at 10.600 with TP 9600. Stop at 10.800. RRR 5:1
Catalyst for downside:
- Short squeeze has ended (CoT Large Specs red line decreasing).
- Vix is low compared to March, quite possible to see a spike.
- Stochastic divergences.
- Q2 results.
Catalyst for upside:
Stop loss at 10.000
TP1 8000 RRR = 3:1
TP2 6000 RRR = 7:1
Potential catalyst for downside:
- Sell off in the coming weeks (similar to March 2020)
- Fears over covid easing.
- FED pumping stocks which will drive capital flows to that asset class.
Potential catalysts for upside:
- Fed losing control of markets.
- Second wave of covid and moooaarr money...
So yesterday move confirms a melt-up with target price around 3400-3500:
- Volume has peaked since lows of March, signaling FOMO from investors.
- Technical indicators are stretched (RSI).
- Volatility trending down.
- Fear and greed index indicates greed.
- Momentum and news flow is very positive and will probably keep like that until the beginning of July.
So this is a pattern I spotted by studying past crisis.
In my previous idea I showed how 2020 crisis compared to 8 other crisis, and that given the monetary and fiscal response from govt and FED it was more likely to stay above the pink line (6 cases stayed above versus 2 below, being these two the 1970 crisis and the 2008 crisis), favouring the bull case....
So from the whole 7.92% upside movement, most of the movement has been built on Asian and European futures session while little in US session. Looks to me like distribution is taking place. It seems it can take place up to 3200.
Super long term view to put in context the current events of March 2020 and try to assess the probabilities of a bear market.
As you can see when you draw SPX in log scale you can draw some pretty accurate trendlines that hold for the whole history since 1929.
March 2020 touched (and even dropped below) the lowest yellow trendline, so I just compared other...
Long term view of Kinross showing how junior gold miners provide leverage to gold bull markets, multiplying returns if you can handle volatility.
Around 5$ could be a good entry point for 2-3 years holding period or swing trading in the channel.