About meI share my ideas on different asset classes. My analysis combines macro environment, long term trend analysis, volume profile and historical reasearch to find similar set ups. I focus mostly on daily, weekly and monthly charts (swing trading)
FB is not fundamentally overvalued given growth rate and ecommerce increasing presence via instagram. The only bearish thing is the news that came yesterday, even if it is old news, maybe the perfect excuse for a sell off.
So I just picked previous blow off tops from the last two years:
- 5 of these blow off tops correct around 8%-12% and held the 200 MA:
3 of those touched the moving average and bounced.
2 of them did not even touched the MA.
- 2 of them corrected more than 20% and lost the MA.
- There is high probability of a 2%-3% correction at least...
Everybody is bearish so I am going to put a contrarian view.
I just took the current bull run and create a ghost pattern given that the first part of the bull run (55 days) is similar to the second one (fractal), by doing this I derived a potential scenario in which a $100,000 bitcoin is possible using the same fractal pattern.
- Revenue growing (~30% YoY)
- Going into crypto: increase in revenue will not be substantial at the beginning but this open a whole new product and business line for Paypal that can grow both organically and through adquisitions (custodian services for crypto, allowing merchants to process payments in crypto easily and keep it in crypto).
Forget about the noise, we are in a multiyear gold bull market.
Few people realize how big this gold bull run can be:
- No alternative assets as fixed income is yielding negative rates and central banks can not increase them or everything will fall apart. Just bitcoin could compete with gold but it is a much smaller market.
- All countries have huge amount of...
My favourite stock at the moment.
Likely to be hyped in the coming months as:
- SPCE will get tge approvals for starting operations.
- Richard Branson to the moon.
- Potential announcement of different product lines and revenues from agreements with NASA and maybe Disney (new CEO is ex-Disney)
Buy at 21$ pull back.
First target 32$ --> achivable next week when...
My favourite asset so far. Macro context is very supportive for higher prices (money printing, political instability, health and economic crisis...)
My only two doubts are how high it will go and how long it will take.
My estimates are 1900 in August and potential pullback to 1750$ in September (in case we have a vaccine).
On any pullback, load the truck.
So Nasdaq is quite overextended if you look at the weekly chart.
RSI is flashing signals previously seen in 2000, 2008, 2019 and March 2020.
MACD is only comparable to 2000.
From the 2009 low around 1050, Nasdaq has 10x is price in 11 years.
Price is close to the upper long term trend channel (around 11300 points).
Price has broken the 2018...
Volume profile confirms we are currently at the most frequent price.
RSI does not seem stretched.
Price is in the lower bound of the channel.
Pump continues at least until q2 earnings report season starts...
Short term bullish until 3400, then down.