History Doesn't Repeat Itself, but It Often Rhymes( Mark Twain)
If you want to have a good forecast, you need to calculate all the possibilities ..!
A comparison between 2008 & 2022:
A Comparison between 2000 & 2022:
My Observation:
1- In the 2000 market crash, after the early -39.5% market bounce back 43% in the next 3 months and then go down 73%.
2-In the 2008 market crash, after the early -25.5% market bounce back 23% in the next 3 months and then go down 50%.
Conclusion:
We can be in the early Bear market and go up in the next 8-12 weeks, very similar to 2000 and 2008 bear markets..!
Recommendation:
Be careful if you have had shorted the market, realize the gains and wait ..!
Educational points:
1-Always look at the previous behavior before making a new forecast and taking action..!
2-Always consider all possible scenarios..!
3- Re-evaluate your positions..!
Best,
Dr . Moshkelgosha M.D
DISCLAIMER
I’m not a certified financial planner/advisor, a certified financial analyst, an economist, a CPA, an accountant, or a lawyer. I’m not a finance professional through formal education. The contents on this site are for informational purposes only and do not constitute financial, accounting, or legal advice. I can’t promise that the information shared on my posts is appropriate for you or anyone else. By using this site, you agree to hold me harmless from any ramifications, financial or otherwise, that occur to you as a result of acting on information found on this site.
A comparison between 2008 & 2022:
A Comparison between 2000 & 2022:
My Observation:
1- In the 2000 market crash, after the early -39.5% market bounce back 43% in the next 3 months and then go down 73%.
2-In the 2008 market crash, after the early -25.5% market bounce back 23% in the next 3 months and then go down 50%.
Conclusion:
We can be in the early Bear market and go up in the next 8-12 weeks, very similar to 2000 and 2008 bear markets..!
Recommendation:
Be careful if you have had shorted the market, realize the gains and wait ..!
Educational points:
1-Always look at the previous behavior before making a new forecast and taking action..!
2-Always consider all possible scenarios..!
3- Re-evaluate your positions..!
Best,
Dr . Moshkelgosha M.D
DISCLAIMER
I’m not a certified financial planner/advisor, a certified financial analyst, an economist, a CPA, an accountant, or a lawyer. I’m not a finance professional through formal education. The contents on this site are for informational purposes only and do not constitute financial, accounting, or legal advice. I can’t promise that the information shared on my posts is appropriate for you or anyone else. By using this site, you agree to hold me harmless from any ramifications, financial or otherwise, that occur to you as a result of acting on information found on this site.
Comment:
we can be in a bearish market and prices keep going up for 3 months