1, 2, 3+ ... NFLX ABOVE $410 post-earnings! Target $475-480
Through thorough analysis of past 5 years of NFLX supply and demand -- you can see in this chart the stronger lines of support and resistance through this time...
5 years of data seems to confirm a pattern of 3-peats to breach through next-level resistance levels... this has proven to be phenomenal and depressing, depending on when you may have jumped in...
As you can see, big jumps/falls happened on ER dates:
RED 3+: October 2016
Green 3+: April 2017
Orange 3+: July 2017
Light Blue 3+: January 2018
Pink 2: February 2018
*SMALL JUMP*
Dark Blue 2: April 2018
*BIG JUMP*
Yellow 1: May 2018
*BIG JUMP*
Purple 1: June 2018
*BIG JUMP*
Black 1: June 2018
*STRONG SUPPORT*
Black 2: July 2018 (???)
*BIG FALL*
Yellow 2: August 2018
*HUGE FALL*
Pink 3+: December 2018
*SMALL JUMP*
Dark Blue 3+: January 2019
*SMALL JUMP*
Yellow 3+: February 2019
*SMALL JUMP*
Purple 3+: July 2019
***HUGE JUMP POTENTIAL***
!!!***!!! IF Black 2 was establish in July 2018... and IF Purple 3+ was established just now (July 2019), THEN Black 3+ will establish next (around $408-410 mark), and NFLX will then surge to next level 1 !!!***!!!
THAT SAID.... It would be against the stock's pattern, but if Black 1/2 were not fully establish (perhaps only Black 1 or neither), then that still needs to be done... Considering possibility that Black 1 & 2 have not been established, this would mean that Purple may have only been established 1 time, or none... BUT... positive news, according to this analysis, this would suggest STRONG support at Yellow level (~$340)... this could mean strong attraction (could pull stock price back down to this level)...
This is my take on it... watch NFLX price this upcoming week (which of course is ER, when big move is expected, as per chart analysis) ... here are possible paths:
1) NFLX has successfully established Purple 3+ and will surge back above $380 early this week, and then at above Black 3+ mark ($408-410) at earnings, likely towards next level... MORE INFO ON THIS EXCITING BULLS' NEWS BELOW!!!
2) NFLX has not yet successfully established Purple 2 (which could possibly be Black 1/2 on chart), so surges back to $408-410 mark to establish Purple 2 on ER, then may/may not fall back down to ~$340 range (ugh, this would be sad)... could bounce between $340 & $410 levels until Purple 3+ has been established...
3) This is the least fortunate outcome... to imagine Purple 1 has not even been established yet... this would be very conflicting -- more out of sync that outcome 2, but it is a possibility...
4) This is not correct, and price plummets below $340 line because global economy is not ready for extreme expansion, and instead collapses... we start buying out all nonperishables, and bugs continue to take over the world, as population succumbs to forced consumerism, and solar energy can't pick up fast enough... people are greedy... you get the picture...
EDIT: 5) Purple 4 could have been established... totally ruining this whole analysis, or at least adding a 4 dimensional piece... let us not acknowledge this possibility to keep clarity, and sanity.
-------
NOW, considering that Path 1 is what I am anticipating... worst case, path 2 is correct, and it takes another try (but I'm thinking not)... then NFLX is going to experience one of the biggest jumps that its had since May-June/July 2018... it will break through two levels again (the second being around $408-410 mark), establishing Black 3+ -- now moving towards NEXT LEVEL!!!
According to the averages of jumps, their timing, and a few other of my personal fav indicators... NFLX would surge about 17% -- so from $408-410 to $475-480 to establish next level top... That said, it would be moving TOWARDS this, not necessary on this ER... USUALLY, jumps and falls seem to be within 1 month of previous indicating ER, but this does not need to be a rule.
Granted, NFLX jumps to low $400s up to ER, then boosts up/to $475/480 level post-ER, this does not mean that it will keep breaking through ceilings... it could very well fall back to $408-410 range as buffer, and this is in fact to be expected... certainly an amazing short opportunity post-ER too if this boosts to $475/480 level, because based on this analysis, it will 100% fall back to low $400s as buffer, until it establishes third point... Personally, I've detected between 18-22 points of major support among the 9 listed levels, which would signify minimum average of 2+ per level... with approximate 80-95% accuracy... so, shorting with short-term/mid-term PUTS at $415-420 could be the best play should NFLX jump to $475/480 range post-ER... although, it could jump to next level 1, repeat, and leave shorts in the dust... IMMEDIATE PLAY: as long as NFLX proves this right, only retracing $380+ pre-ER, then going long with short-term/mid-term $400-410 CALL options could be huge gainers!
My anticipated play...
$370 PUTS (initially light, as unanticipated support)
$405/410 CALLS (initially, for near-term gains, 150-300% gains)
$440 CALLS (2,000-8,000+% gains, should this happen)
I'll take my 5-10% gains any day of the week, though... cash-in, cash-out, repeat >>> always choose to take smaller profits to continue making smaller profits over holding on for overly optimistic gains... but, this is quite a big potential opportunity here!
Good luck to all traders, will be an interesting way to start this earnings season for sure!
** You can add in trend lines for the cup curvature at final support of each level... this indicates a slightly more exponential burst should this ER prove to be Black 3+... making it seem more likely that Purple 2 & 3 (and maybe Purple 1) still need to be established... but then again, the economy has been showing an unsustainable growth since 2008/2011 imo anyways, so I'm not too sure if this should really spark much fear... technically, none of my 3+ points NEED to be confirmed, and the whole system could collapse, bringing NFLX below my (first) Red 3+... emphasizing that no such 3+ points have been successfully achieved (or even exist)... but this type of doomsday attitude doesn't seem to be a popular one amongst pro traders and big, institutional money... these big dogs believe in "corrections" -- which, should not be too extreme, as to suggest that if NFLX doesn't BOOM on ER, that it will hopefully maintain a parallel trading for next few months... creating a more sustainable growth pattern... *mic drop*... **
5 years of data seems to confirm a pattern of 3-peats to breach through next-level resistance levels... this has proven to be phenomenal and depressing, depending on when you may have jumped in...
As you can see, big jumps/falls happened on ER dates:
RED 3+: October 2016
Green 3+: April 2017
Orange 3+: July 2017
Light Blue 3+: January 2018
Pink 2: February 2018
*SMALL JUMP*
Dark Blue 2: April 2018
*BIG JUMP*
Yellow 1: May 2018
*BIG JUMP*
Purple 1: June 2018
*BIG JUMP*
Black 1: June 2018
*STRONG SUPPORT*
Black 2: July 2018 (???)
*BIG FALL*
Yellow 2: August 2018
*HUGE FALL*
Pink 3+: December 2018
*SMALL JUMP*
Dark Blue 3+: January 2019
*SMALL JUMP*
Yellow 3+: February 2019
*SMALL JUMP*
Purple 3+: July 2019
***HUGE JUMP POTENTIAL***
!!!***!!! IF Black 2 was establish in July 2018... and IF Purple 3+ was established just now (July 2019), THEN Black 3+ will establish next (around $408-410 mark), and NFLX will then surge to next level 1 !!!***!!!
THAT SAID.... It would be against the stock's pattern, but if Black 1/2 were not fully establish (perhaps only Black 1 or neither), then that still needs to be done... Considering possibility that Black 1 & 2 have not been established, this would mean that Purple may have only been established 1 time, or none... BUT... positive news, according to this analysis, this would suggest STRONG support at Yellow level (~$340)... this could mean strong attraction (could pull stock price back down to this level)...
This is my take on it... watch NFLX price this upcoming week (which of course is ER, when big move is expected, as per chart analysis) ... here are possible paths:
1) NFLX has successfully established Purple 3+ and will surge back above $380 early this week, and then at above Black 3+ mark ($408-410) at earnings, likely towards next level... MORE INFO ON THIS EXCITING BULLS' NEWS BELOW!!!
2) NFLX has not yet successfully established Purple 2 (which could possibly be Black 1/2 on chart), so surges back to $408-410 mark to establish Purple 2 on ER, then may/may not fall back down to ~$340 range (ugh, this would be sad)... could bounce between $340 & $410 levels until Purple 3+ has been established...
3) This is the least fortunate outcome... to imagine Purple 1 has not even been established yet... this would be very conflicting -- more out of sync that outcome 2, but it is a possibility...
4) This is not correct, and price plummets below $340 line because global economy is not ready for extreme expansion, and instead collapses... we start buying out all nonperishables, and bugs continue to take over the world, as population succumbs to forced consumerism, and solar energy can't pick up fast enough... people are greedy... you get the picture...
EDIT: 5) Purple 4 could have been established... totally ruining this whole analysis, or at least adding a 4 dimensional piece... let us not acknowledge this possibility to keep clarity, and sanity.
-------
NOW, considering that Path 1 is what I am anticipating... worst case, path 2 is correct, and it takes another try (but I'm thinking not)... then NFLX is going to experience one of the biggest jumps that its had since May-June/July 2018... it will break through two levels again (the second being around $408-410 mark), establishing Black 3+ -- now moving towards NEXT LEVEL!!!
According to the averages of jumps, their timing, and a few other of my personal fav indicators... NFLX would surge about 17% -- so from $408-410 to $475-480 to establish next level top... That said, it would be moving TOWARDS this, not necessary on this ER... USUALLY, jumps and falls seem to be within 1 month of previous indicating ER, but this does not need to be a rule.
Granted, NFLX jumps to low $400s up to ER, then boosts up/to $475/480 level post-ER, this does not mean that it will keep breaking through ceilings... it could very well fall back to $408-410 range as buffer, and this is in fact to be expected... certainly an amazing short opportunity post-ER too if this boosts to $475/480 level, because based on this analysis, it will 100% fall back to low $400s as buffer, until it establishes third point... Personally, I've detected between 18-22 points of major support among the 9 listed levels, which would signify minimum average of 2+ per level... with approximate 80-95% accuracy... so, shorting with short-term/mid-term PUTS at $415-420 could be the best play should NFLX jump to $475/480 range post-ER... although, it could jump to next level 1, repeat, and leave shorts in the dust... IMMEDIATE PLAY: as long as NFLX proves this right, only retracing $380+ pre-ER, then going long with short-term/mid-term $400-410 CALL options could be huge gainers!
My anticipated play...
$370 PUTS (initially light, as unanticipated support)
$405/410 CALLS (initially, for near-term gains, 150-300% gains)
$440 CALLS (2,000-8,000+% gains, should this happen)
I'll take my 5-10% gains any day of the week, though... cash-in, cash-out, repeat >>> always choose to take smaller profits to continue making smaller profits over holding on for overly optimistic gains... but, this is quite a big potential opportunity here!
Good luck to all traders, will be an interesting way to start this earnings season for sure!
** You can add in trend lines for the cup curvature at final support of each level... this indicates a slightly more exponential burst should this ER prove to be Black 3+... making it seem more likely that Purple 2 & 3 (and maybe Purple 1) still need to be established... but then again, the economy has been showing an unsustainable growth since 2008/2011 imo anyways, so I'm not too sure if this should really spark much fear... technically, none of my 3+ points NEED to be confirmed, and the whole system could collapse, bringing NFLX below my (first) Red 3+... emphasizing that no such 3+ points have been successfully achieved (or even exist)... but this type of doomsday attitude doesn't seem to be a popular one amongst pro traders and big, institutional money... these big dogs believe in "corrections" -- which, should not be too extreme, as to suggest that if NFLX doesn't BOOM on ER, that it will hopefully maintain a parallel trading for next few months... creating a more sustainable growth pattern... *mic drop*... **
Comment:
**NEW CHART AVAILABLE WITH CUP CURVATURE FOR $480 - $548 PRICE TARGETS **
$480 is average price target... instead of $475-480...
$440 is lower price target;
$548 is higher price target.