Baero-Trading

Short NG

Short
NYMEX:NG1!   Natural Gas Futures
NG1! might be doing one of its epic fake outs - right here at a very key level.



Fundamentals - there is a giant Category 4 Hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico that is going to slam into Louisiana and the NG/Oil rigs. I bet this drives a lot of traders into the energy space.



Technicals - Fisher traders will note NG made a very late day A up on Friday. NG also perfectly kissed its 200 month SMA - were getting lower lows and lower highs for 7 years now. This all smells VERY bull trappy, don't be surprised if they "sell the news" - the hurricane didn't sneak up on anyone, and big traders are already positioned in energy. Once the storm attracts the masses, I would expect the bigs to sell into strength/volume.

Wild week ahead!
Trade active:
Weekly Stoch is getting elevated, the LR channel on the weekly is toppy - this all smells so much like a bull trap!

Comment:
Got squeezed out of initial short.

Resorted the 2018 highs this morning - looking for a multi month hold of this short.

Comment:
NG Possible Top soon? 2014 highs held.

Comment:
We are now at the 2014 highs and a strong downtrend line. The EU will start regulating prices soon, NordStream 2 Gas Pipeline from Russia will soon be online, and Winter 2021 forecasts are coming in as warmer than expected. Weekly NG1! RSI is now at 86.

I think we are near the top - but only time will tell!

Comment:
Small Video I made about my current NG views.

www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZahBB4TC...
Comment:
NG sold off to the 20d SMA and has bounced to the 9d SMA. Possible Head & Shoulders forming??

Comment:
NG daily starting to break down - closed <20d SMA on 10/15. Weekly RSI is still 76!!

Comment:
Right Shoulder possibly forming on the Daily Chart. Once the neckline breaks we should start the drive back lower.

Trade the charts - news will come in after the fact. It looks like Europe is destined for a more mild winter than originally though, as stockpiles continue to rise. NordStream 2 will come online at the worst time and drive price down. Temporary Relief? Mild November Weather Could Alleviate EU Gas Crisis t.co/zmdceDzSZp

Again -this is all a narrative - trade the charts!


Trade closed: target reached

Follow us weekly at www.Baero.biz/blog
Disclaimer

The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.