AdrianRaymondFX

NGAS testing long-term bearish trend line

FX:NGAS   Natural Gas (Henry Hub)
Not an asset I would recommend to trade given it's highly volatile nature, but I find this chart interesting. Last Friday's high (27/05/16) allows us to establish a trend line starting from February 2014's highs. Hard to say what might happen here, but if prices break above this trendline (resistance at $2.19) sometime in the next week or so, we'd probably see a follow through in bullish momentum with a possible target of $2.4. At around this level, prices would hit another trend line, which would perhaps be followed by a correction in the market. Any break above $2.5 would provide technical reasons to believe that natgas would have room to move higher over the medium term. This is obviously a really bullish scenario, and I suspect that prices won't just rise in a straight-line fashion if some of these resistances break. So keep in mind that if the market starts falling after failing to break above $2.19 this upcoming week, prices could very well resume their bearish trend .
Looking at the future contract, I would wager that there's upside risk.

snapshot
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The first trend line broke.
snapshot
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First target hit today (pink trendline.)
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