Pattern: Channel Up on 1D.
Signal: Buy on the 0.500 Fibonacci retracement level.
Target: 3.350 (just below the Resistance).
** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. **
Natural Gas continues to show a build up of bullish price action.
Linked below is a previous analysis on the winter contracts showing the target hit DEAD on. Being that winter is not here yet, it's very possible this pattern continues to play out to the upside.
The most recent weather outlook now points to December being the coldest month which means...
We will see insane volatility coming weeks. If NG manage to pass 3 that would push it above monthly fibonacci resistance & pivot. That could easily lead to another 230% gain. I same some targets monthly fibonacci 0.5, 0.6 will settle around 8-10 usd. This will be very quick trading, I will look to short somewhere above monthly Ichimoku, that could be anywhere...
Today we will give our technical view on Natural Gas
Main items we can see on the chart:
a) We are working on a weekly timeframe because we are facing structures that come from 2000 until the present
b) The main structures we have are 1- Monthly Support zone and 2-Monthly descending trendline. Those two levels are the edges of the current scenario.
natgas broke and closed below an expanding wedge pattern.
because the price is currently testing a strong daily structure,
chances are high that the price will drop.
the safest zone to sell from is the expanding area between the support of the wedge and the last higher low.
Old trendline is still in play and might lead to more chop sideways, possibly forming a pennant.
The dark blue 200 week EMA is likely as far as it goes if it breaks out.
Keep in mind this dollar index is more about the Euro and Yen rather than the actual broad dollar index which is still where it was in the beginning of the year....
Quick observation here. NG traders that are deep into the commodity's technical dynamics agree that Natural Gas is trading on patterns that are cyclical on the very long-term.
If cyclical behavior and seasonality play a big part on this, then why should the month of October be any different? Every 4 years since 2012, NG makes a bottom around March-April, then...
I've been following a declining wedge in UNG for sometime and we just had a breakout! I really like this sign (so far) as its also coincided with a lower support limit so we might be able to ride this for some time!!
Winter season = End of Year = Holiday Season = Gathering period = No Social distancing
Now that it’s mid-October, the next big worry on health officials’ minds is the holiday season. Of course the concern here is that larger family gatherings could potentially lead to bigger outbreaks,
especially in parts of the country where there are higher levels of COVID-19...
Time to start looking for another spooky Halloween trade as the latter half of October brings in cold temps.
Prices are now sitting near historically supportive levels and bullishly above the 200 week EMA, with the 50 curling up.
A closer look at the 4hr chart shows prices are coiling up with the RSI in buying territory....