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Disclaimer: For new people, or just the dumb people (I heard there were alot of those in crypto), these are AVERAGE TRUE RANGE numbers.
Those numbers do not represent the most or even average you can lose in a day but the trading range in an average day.
Days can vary widely... Just look at the NatGas chart, or Bitcoin that has some days in a 2.5% range and then...
Will wait for PA to present/confirm this trade... But NG1! Is approaching/has reached a major resistance @ 2.67 ! Will be great risk to reward but, could be in a bull flag currently, which is why I am waiting. Would be awesome if PA offers "shorting position" around the "money arrow", lol, as this would be a confluence point of a major resistance, the 200sma, and...
$NG1! prices have been depressed for so long, that the only play this year has been short.
As we look ahead to the upcoming winter season, we usually get a strong rally as traders buy the rumor or fear of a harsh winter. Once reality sets in and winter arrives, prices usually sell off.
There's an opportunity for traders to get in and play the fall...
Realizing that we cannot rely on EW alone when making forecasts…
We have to use old tricks from the past. One with no alternative count - a Gann projection.
Because the main highs and lows should be clear by now.
Here are reasons to short natural gas at this level:
1. Both MACD and RSI have reached overbrought level. 1 Year MACD reached historical high since Oct 2004.
2. Reached 2.7-2.73 resistance level
3. Mild temperature will not boost the short term demand.
Classic breakout from falling wedge is now hitting 2.6 area which was the key breakdown level on the last long move down. No real fundamentals for anything higher yet either. I favour this getting taken back to the breakout from the wedge.
I still don't think that NG bottoms until the end of December. Just basing it off the cycles analysis idea I have going...but NG is tricky. This is what I think may be going on right now on a short term cycle. If this count is correct, then the wave 1 is longer than the wave 3 which of course would mean that wave 5 must be smaller than 3. Soooo, I extended the...