chartwatchers

Natural Gas - Almost there

FX:NGAS   Natural Gas (Henry Hub)
2411 38 46
We are only 4-5 days from the cycle bottom in NatGas. I was reading at many forum sides 2 weeks ago that NatGAs has bottomed. They were wrong. NatGas has a very complicated cycle count and for those who doesn't have it better to skip this instrument because more often they will lose money than win.
Do you remember how bulls were crying when I shorted NatGas here ?
ENERGY TRADE 3


Those who are still sitting in the shorts will be able to close their positions in the next 4 days in the panic selling.
Buying in the panic selling is a beautiful thing. And very profitable also.

So the late NatGas bulls will be panic selling in the next 4-5 days as we broke the important support at 2.64$.
We will bottom around 2.4$. But I'm not going to enter at a predicted price now . I will enter in the next 4-5 days as I will be watching how the panic selling plays out.
Comment: 2.3$ is not out of the table....
snapshot
Comment: Entereing to the red zone.
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Comment: :panic:
Comment: Panic selling DAY 2
Minimum 3 more days till the bottom.
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Comment: NatGas data: inventory build.
Bearish...
Of course that someone knew it 2 days ago.
That's why we are in the panic selling...
Someone had to start the selling.
Comment: Again:
The earliest it could bottom is Tuesday.
And maybe we got the bottom only next Friday.
Thanks. Should I buy DGAZ for next couple days or is that being too greedy?
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bertcoin PRO newatthis
I got a little burned thinking the same thing on Arpi's earlier NGAS idea. He said he wasn't going to short unless it got to $3. But I bit on a little DGAZ and the mini rally on 7/28 hit my stop loss.... I'd be in the green on on DGAZ now, but got greedy as you say and learned a lesson. NGAS is a wild ride to where it is going. Learn from the pro.
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It's too late to short NatGas here. It's very volatile.
We can be at a cycle botom any day. I dont think you want to be get caught with your shorts in big up day.
Wait for the bottom and buy UGAZ I will post when I enter.
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newatthis PRO chartwatchers
Will do...thank you!
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snapshot

Check my chart, I think a good buy may be at 2.55
+1 Reply
Nightstar xukaitan888
You can't draw a trendline and cut through a bunch of candles buddy..! Technical Analysis 101.
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xukaitan888 Nightstar
My position is built on2.55
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drooling... :o) thank u arpi
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For my (our) education: NGAS is trending up from the March and May low. It is in the 2nd daily cycle, a strong cycle. What data is it that makes you believe NGAS will retest the trend line (a significant decline), vs bottom on an EMA (like the convergence of 100 and 300, or a lower Fib ratio? How much of this particular retracement is due to external factors like the dollar and S&P cycle compared to other natural cyclical rhythms? If there is a particular web site or book that you recommend with fundamentals on the NGAS cycle, I'd really appreciate the info. Thanks so much for posting your knowledge!
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Thank you Apri for the Great Analysis and Updates! Jumped on the Short Train, DGAZ, this morning. Enjoying the ride so far! :)
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chartwatchers PRO marketpundit
It's almost +7% . Good. Just dont get caught if we bottom. I wouldn't hold it for too many days.
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marketpundit chartwatchers
I chickened out at the support line: 2.550. Closed my position in DGAZ. Happy with my profits for today. Will observe for now. And wait to hope on UGAZ.
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showerreport marketpundit
who is Apri?
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chartwatchers PRO showerreport
I think it's me with a typo. :)
Arpi
+4 Reply
marketpundit chartwatchers
Please accept my sincere apologies for the typo! Damn me for confusing people like this ;)
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I am new to Natural Gas trading. Which 3x ETF is the best for this trade. I found UGAZ from VelocityShares and GASL from Direxion. Please advise. Thanks!
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bertcoin PRO pbartashevich
I like UGAZ and DGAZ so far via e-trade (US). New for me also. Will watch the Direxion products as well.
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I trade UGAZ/DAGZ via e-trade as well. :)
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chartwatchers PRO pbartashevich
UGAZ follows NatGAs. If you buy you are long in Natural Gas. But have to know it's a 3x ETF. -1% in NatGas -3% in UGAZ.
+1 Reply
I'm ready to jump in at any moment :)
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Thanks. I will trade UGAZ then. I am not entering yet. I will wait for bottom confirmation.
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TSI and MACD are so bad but I think short position should close at MA200. If price break blue trendline we could buy later
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cool. it could aim for 3 or beyond.
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Is that spike the end? or a mini bull trap?
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it is a buy signal or a bull trap?
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No signal yet. Just whipsaw.
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looks like we have swing and a bottom
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No swing yet.
+1 Reply
traderzaius chartwatchers
yes, it gave away all its gains and then some in a couple of minutes :(
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traderzaius traderzaius
hate it when a trade turns on you the second you buy
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Good to know. Thanks.
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Arpi, I think that gas will tank along with oil. Gas is an alternative to oil, if oil get cheaper, so should do gas or coal. I understand that they are separate markets but it could be ... thanks!
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Nightstar showerreport
OIL is in the midst of starting a new Intermediate cycle.. it's not about to tank.
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showerreport Nightstar
Hi, nightstar, do you still think that we are in the midst of a new intermediate cycle or do you think that we are above to tank ? Would you call tank 35 USD or 25 USD or 18? Correct me if I wrong but you think that we are going to 55-65 before going again to 35.
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Nightstar showerreport
OIL shot all the way up to $49 when everyone was calling for further downside, so a correction at this juncture was long overdue. I will say this: The severity of this correction is a bit concerning but not unusual, which means this IC could turn into a slow grind. Either way, let's not jump to any conclusions yet.. Let's see how we finish off the week first!

Ps: This is why sound money management is key here and I'm fortunately well diversified to withstand any kind of short term volatility.

Good luck!
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Your analysis is spot on; great job. Natty is being hammered relentlessly reflecting panic among the herd. Looks like 2.23 - 2.30 likely downside target at the least. Not sure what kind of upside to expect after it bottoms.
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So quiet here today....
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ice_holly01 PRO pbartashevich
Waiting for the bottom this week and jump in the ship.
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