$NGAS: Model Eyes Further Decline To 1.62 #naturalgas #fibonacci

FX:NGAS   Natural Gas (Henry Hub)

As the prior DAILY chart reached its lowly targets, price fell to Predictive/Forecasting Model's "Watch Line", an indicator that daily frame action had ceded control to higher timeframe. Based on same Model's formula, we are thus turning to the 4th degree higher frame: Weekly.


- Predictive/Forecasting Model:
In essence, the Predictive/Forecasting Model calls for further decline, defining a target as:

- TG = 1.621 - 26 OCT 2015


Relevance of this target rests also on the proximity of a wide reciprocal ab = cd symmetry that appears to play itself out from the high of 6.484 in the week of 17 FEB 2014 with an intermediate "axis" around which the second leg is forming a probable symmetrical projection.

This projected reciprocity is valued at 1.593.


In addition to above tight alignment between the Predictive/Forecasting Model and expected geometric projection, a close alignment adds credence to this vicinity by the projection of the following two Fibonacci values:

1 - 1.414-FE = 1.7373


2 - 1.618-FE = 1.716.


Note that a remnant "Geo" from prior analysis subsists in the price field, having defined a Point-5-second (5''). This would be expected of a market that remains exceedingly extended, forcing a geometric distortion of the original Wolfe Wave .

The Geo addresses market distortion and adjusts probability targets when price reaches the 5' or 5'' level of definition. In this particular case, we are dealing with a 5'' definition. Hence, the geometric compensation that is expected to occur is based on the Geo's Off-Set Rule #3, which offers a retracement to the price level corresponding to Point-3 as the highest probability level of attainment.

This relaxation to the upside is an expected interim development, allowing price to seek the underbelly of the Geo . An alternate way to explain this would be by way of structural analysis, considering that the 1-3 Line of the Geo would offer a once-support-now-resistance validation event, before further downside might resume.


A confluence of values appear to concentrate in the 1.737 to 1.593 range, increasing the probability of support in this narrow vicinity. The Predictive/Forecasting Model offers this value as a probable reversal level.

If this were to occur, next bullish target would seek validation of a nodular core in the 4.011 to 4.091 range, which defined the aforementioned "axis" for the projected reciprocal symmetry that comes in nearest alignment with same Model.


David Alcindor
Predictive Analysis & Forecasting
Durango, Colorado - USA

Twitter: @4xForecaster
Linked-In: David Alcindor
TradingView: http://www.TradingView.com/u/4xforecaster

Feel free to share and follow analyses, pre-publishing of charts and development of technical analyses by following me on TradingView.com, alias: 4xForecaster - TradingView.com/u/4xforecaster

Thank you for your readership,

Comment: 25 NOV 2015 - Chart Update:

David Alcindor
Comment: 03 MAR 2016 - Chart Update / Tech-Note: Hit Target

Price hit target defined last OCT 2015 ... Expect a high-probability retracement to the 4.011 level as shown in original predictive analysis/forecast:


David Alcindor
Comment: 18 MAR 2016 - Chart Update:

Price continues to carve higher-hghs 3 weeks from the time it hit and reversed right at the forecast level that was defined last October 26th, 2015. Bullish target from this predicted reversal level remains at 4.011 (Nodal Core):


David Alcindor
Comment: 20 JUN 2016 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:

Price continues to reverse from dead-on target hit ... Forecast remains unchanged, as bulls continue to keep their eyes onto the 4.011/4.091 target range, as defined this past October 26th, 2015.


David Alcindor, CMT Affiliate #227974
- Alias: 4xForecaster (Twitter)
Comment: 12 AUG 2016 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:

Price continues to rally from this WEEKLY chart, after it hit the bearish target dead-on ... Intermediate bearish target exists at lower timeframe (signal students, check out your mailbox) down to clearly defined support.

Long term bullish target remains intact and in force:


David Alcindor
CMT Affiliate #227974
Comment: 20 AUG 2016 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:

Following a forceful rallying, we are now probably witnessing a transient relaxation in price, expecting it to correct down to 2.164 (per Predictive/Forecasting Model) - See following WEEKLY chart, illustrating how well price has remained tethered to the recent year forecast, hitting the bearish target dead-on, and turning on a dime, as it rallied more recently:

From a finer grain perspective (see following H4 timeframe), price has continued to remain tethered to the forecast. This H4 chart illustrates the recent price action and its adherence to forecast pathway in the dashed line:

Students of the CROW Code should see that there is a CROW-Tail remains pending following a 5-point body completion, and that SURF application would send price to the 4.011 vicinity, as forecast already back in OCT 26th, 2015 (using the module core as its probable level of resistance).

Further update should follow whenever pertinent; Signal service already includes this chart, so newer analysis would be revealed to clients first.

Have a safe and fun weekend.Mushroom Fest in Telluride, Colorado for those in the vicinity, so perhaps see you there?


David Alcindor
CMT Affiliate #227974
Alias: 4xForecaster (Twitter)
Comment: 28 AUG 2016 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:

Potential risk relates to the 2.993 level:
- BACA > 2.993 would delay forecast of 4.038 by 21 days (3 weeks), from present expectation of 27 FEB 2017 (light pink risk pathway) to potential 20 MAR 2017 (bold yellow risk pathway):

Current concern here is the lack of a significant Fibonacci retracement (minimum of 0.382-Fib) versus a AFT (Aggressive Forward Trading condition - CROW Code student, take note of this aggressive bull threat acting against expected bearish consolidation, which itself would complete a "House Cleaning" pattern).

Overall, hesitancy between a temporizing decline (limited by the illustrated 0.386, 0.500 and 0.618 Fibonacci levels) and a continuation of the forecast path since nadir target was hit, will persist until price commits to lower-low or higher-high structure.

Predictive/Forecasting Model continues to favor a temporary decline at this point.


David Alcindor
CMT Affiliate #227974
- Alias: 4xForecaster
- CROW Code instructor
- Signal service provider
What after 4$ hit mark? Reverse or continue of climbing ?
+1 Reply
4xForecaster ja.piotr.bor
Hello @ja.piotr.bor - This information is exclusive to Signal Service clients exclusively, but released afterwards to the public. Terms of agreement in TradingView is that I cannot advertise, provide a link or reference for such service, which I'd love to offer via TradingView.

For now, it is a service outside of this platform, but the charts are all "TradingView-powered", pretty much like the rest of my life.

Just don't know what to say this is just a masterpiece.... Are you looking for shorts now too?
+1 Reply
4xForecaster ElPatron.Y
Thank you - Your comments are very much appreciated - David
+1 Reply
ElPatron.Y 4xForecaster
Did you flip to short now?
+1 Reply
4xForecaster ElPatron.Y
Hello @Yahia.Awes - The forecast has not changed. Target was hit dead-on, and as per orange forecast pathway, price remains on track to the range target as defined late last year.

+1 Reply
Excellent work
+1 Reply
Great David, still valid?
+1 Reply
Interesting, the price did go back to retest the 1-3 line as you predicted. Do you have a timeline for the price to reach your target of 1.62?
+1 Reply
4xForecaster huntingsniper
Hello, @huntingsniper - Thank you for checking in. The targets are not based on timing. Therefore, I am not certain when it would get there, if the Predictive/Forecasting Model's target gets hit.

David Alcindor
+1 Reply
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