ruebennase

NIFTY50..End of countertrend rally?

NSE:NIFTY   Nifty 50 Index
Hello Traders,
as I wrote yesterday by comments something is wrong with that wave. Todays a/d-Ratio dropped to 0.6 (19/32) after rising to 4.1 yesterday, and closed today at 10079.30 after opening @10099.25 and making a high at 10031.95, just some points away from Aug. 02 level @ 10137.85!
Todays low was set at 10031.95! RSI declined that day (45 min chart) but still stay above 50 point area.
So the flat pattern becomes more in front and could be confirmed by trading below ~ 10005 zone. A trade below 10051 at hourly basis (closing) will be a first sign to strengthen this view.
Daily candle at NIFTY 50 shows a possible "Dark cloud cover", a trendreversal candlestick pattern, which must be confirmed within the next 1 or 2 tradingsessions.
Maybe one more higher high has to occur to touch the upper boundery line (blue) to complete the flat pattern by textbook view. But this is not necessary.
In a bullish case we have seen today the ongoing move in a wave 3 of a series of one`s and two`s. If NIFTY is able to exeed the 10137.85 level targetzone is around 10143 - 10191 - 10259!
But this is not my favorite count per now.
By observing the option chain for NIFTY, and here the OI for puts, we can see that a lot of puts placed at the zone from 9500 - 10K! I think this zone will be highly competetive in the next two weeks. So a sideways, but volatil move is expectable!
Textnote: By yesterdays trading the NIFTY200 jump to a new high above the Aug. 02 at 5475.80 with a gap and exceed to todays high at 5518. Todays session shows the same pattern as the NIFTY50 does.
Obviously, the willingness to trade higher beta shares is increasing, which seems to indicate a certain carelessness on part of investors, but can also be linked to the end of an upward trend. This end is not yet visible, but it is to be expected that this will happen and we will keep an eye on the development.
Have agreat day
rubennase

Questions and Comments are welcome!
Note!---> This analysis can be wrong. It is just in my view the one with the most probabiltity with the Data which are available to me and by my interpretation of the EW Theory. If you trade this it is done by your own risk and decision! Keep that in Mind!!!!
Data by NSE!
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