Hello Traders,
as I wrote my last analysis wave c has started and bears show their power. All targets have been reached at my analyse on Sept. 25! On Monday I labeld the INDIAVIX in EW-terms and today we can label a five-wave move complete. Also we can do this at chart of lower timeframes.
On a daily basis all major Indexes at India as the NIFTY500, NIFTY200, SENSEX and the NIFTY50 as well show a "bearish Engulfing" pattern by using candlestick analysis. This would imply the move down isn`t complete right now at higher timeframes (4h, daily). This will negate with a solid close above the open price of the bearish engulfing! By observing the a/d-Ratio today which closed on it`s lowest level the last days by (5/46=0.11) it also imply that all bulls are kicked off the floor. So as sentiment shortterm declining to that bearish territory a countertrend is just around the corner with targets at 9892 - 9942 which include a wave 4 (Micro degree) on lesser degree at minimum. Another well common target for a pullback is also the level of 10000 zone which will reflect the 0.618 RT of the complete decline the last hours, started at 10178.95 to todays low. May one more up-down sequence to complete the decline is needed to start a pullback and so wave 1 of c will end. If prices exceed the 9685 level the running flat make his way down to the named target areas. RSI (14,close) shows a strong oversold level and as of now a divergence, indicating also a sharp but fast pullback. Also TRIN vs NIFTY move "hand in hand" by making a new low today (NIFTY) and TRIN declined not as sharp as NIFTY does (TRIN move inverted to the INDEX we`re observing)! Reading below 1 indicate a strong day and vice versa!
My alternate count is that we`re right now in a wave iii of c with lower targets ahead.
A solid advance and a close above 10079 would imply that the decline is done and a new advance has startet. Even a sharp advance starting right now would eliminate the "expanding flat" pattern and creating a "running flat" which is IMO a possibility of lesser importance!
Note: The India currencie to the USD shows a new advance up after comleting a five-move decline, may ending an a-b-c pattern. Wave (iii) Minuette shows the 2.618 RT of wave (i) and RSI as well is heavely overbought, so a pullback is still to come, which will start a wave (iv) and after that finishing a wave (v) with a advance to new highs short term. This to my view imply lower lows in India Indexes at forefront. Currencies move forward!! Notice that!
As I wrote some days before Volatility jumped to new levels but still now implicating shortterm a slowdown in it self!
Have a great day...
ruebennase
Questions and Comments are welcome!
Note!---> This analysis can be wrong. It is just in my view the one with the most probabiltity with the Data which are available to me and by my interpretation of the EW Theory. If you trade this it is done by your own risk and decision! Keep that in Mind!!!!
Data by NSE!
as I wrote my last analysis wave c has started and bears show their power. All targets have been reached at my analyse on Sept. 25! On Monday I labeld the INDIAVIX in EW-terms and today we can label a five-wave move complete. Also we can do this at chart of lower timeframes.
On a daily basis all major Indexes at India as the NIFTY500, NIFTY200, SENSEX and the NIFTY50 as well show a "bearish Engulfing" pattern by using candlestick analysis. This would imply the move down isn`t complete right now at higher timeframes (4h, daily). This will negate with a solid close above the open price of the bearish engulfing! By observing the a/d-Ratio today which closed on it`s lowest level the last days by (5/46=0.11) it also imply that all bulls are kicked off the floor. So as sentiment shortterm declining to that bearish territory a countertrend is just around the corner with targets at 9892 - 9942 which include a wave 4 (Micro degree) on lesser degree at minimum. Another well common target for a pullback is also the level of 10000 zone which will reflect the 0.618 RT of the complete decline the last hours, started at 10178.95 to todays low. May one more up-down sequence to complete the decline is needed to start a pullback and so wave 1 of c will end. If prices exceed the 9685 level the running flat make his way down to the named target areas. RSI (14,close) shows a strong oversold level and as of now a divergence, indicating also a sharp but fast pullback. Also TRIN vs NIFTY move "hand in hand" by making a new low today (NIFTY) and TRIN declined not as sharp as NIFTY does (TRIN move inverted to the INDEX we`re observing)! Reading below 1 indicate a strong day and vice versa!
My alternate count is that we`re right now in a wave iii of c with lower targets ahead.
A solid advance and a close above 10079 would imply that the decline is done and a new advance has startet. Even a sharp advance starting right now would eliminate the "expanding flat" pattern and creating a "running flat" which is IMO a possibility of lesser importance!
Note: The India currencie to the USD shows a new advance up after comleting a five-move decline, may ending an a-b-c pattern. Wave (iii) Minuette shows the 2.618 RT of wave (i) and RSI as well is heavely overbought, so a pullback is still to come, which will start a wave (iv) and after that finishing a wave (v) with a advance to new highs short term. This to my view imply lower lows in India Indexes at forefront. Currencies move forward!! Notice that!
As I wrote some days before Volatility jumped to new levels but still now implicating shortterm a slowdown in it self!
Have a great day...
ruebennase
Questions and Comments are welcome!
Note!---> This analysis can be wrong. It is just in my view the one with the most probabiltity with the Data which are available to me and by my interpretation of the EW Theory. If you trade this it is done by your own risk and decision! Keep that in Mind!!!!
Data by NSE!
notice!
I wrote:"...Even a sharp advance starting right now would eliminate the "expanding flat" pattern and creating a "running flat" which is IMO -0.47% a possibility of lesser importance!"
This include that prices haven`t to exceed below 9685.55 at no time and also run up to new highs above 10179.85!
Regards
ruebennase