Hello Traders,
as I mentioned at my last analyzes, NIFTY50 is heading lower toward the 10782 range and below.
The following facts support this view.
1. The move from 10782 – 11181.30 was countertrend, showing a „three-up“, the decline since creates overlapping waves that make an impulsive move less probable.
2. N50 also retraced a bit above the 0.382 Fibonacci and traveled into the range of two waves „4“ of lesser degree. More often a common target for an ending countermove.
3. Todays a/d-Ratio was weak @ 0.11, means for every stock that was bought, nine were sold! TRIN is showing heavily overbought levels, today moving to 2.19, while it closed on August 9 @ 2.45! Such high readings often indicate a countertrend but it is not required. Recall that last week (Aug 8) a skyrocketing a/d-Ratio (@11) was identified as a „sucker-play“, a „bull-trap“! These high measures often indicate a countertrend move.
4. Today I show you the Donchian channel, which can be used to visualize a trend to either the up- or downside. Trading above the middle line of the channel (which is the avg of it and is colored red), shows you that the short term trend is up and vice versa. May be N50 will find support at the lower line of the channel? We will see.
5. Just a rise above the middle line will be a first hint that the trend has changed. But for this, it is not the time now.
Overall my conclusion as the count remains valid. Any decline below the low @ 10782 will be „enough“ to fulfill the wave „5“ requirement.
An alternate view for N50 is, that the possible wave „iv“ high is a wave „a“ and the decline to today's low is a wave „b“ of a flat or a variation thereof.
Have a great week...
ruebennase
Feel free to ask or comment.
Trading this analyze is at your own risk!
as I mentioned at my last analyzes, NIFTY50 is heading lower toward the 10782 range and below.
The following facts support this view.
1. The move from 10782 – 11181.30 was countertrend, showing a „three-up“, the decline since creates overlapping waves that make an impulsive move less probable.
2. N50 also retraced a bit above the 0.382 Fibonacci and traveled into the range of two waves „4“ of lesser degree. More often a common target for an ending countermove.
3. Todays a/d-Ratio was weak @ 0.11, means for every stock that was bought, nine were sold! TRIN is showing heavily overbought levels, today moving to 2.19, while it closed on August 9 @ 2.45! Such high readings often indicate a countertrend but it is not required. Recall that last week (Aug 8) a skyrocketing a/d-Ratio (@11) was identified as a „sucker-play“, a „bull-trap“! These high measures often indicate a countertrend move.
4. Today I show you the Donchian channel, which can be used to visualize a trend to either the up- or downside. Trading above the middle line of the channel (which is the avg of it and is colored red), shows you that the short term trend is up and vice versa. May be N50 will find support at the lower line of the channel? We will see.
5. Just a rise above the middle line will be a first hint that the trend has changed. But for this, it is not the time now.
Overall my conclusion as the count remains valid. Any decline below the low @ 10782 will be „enough“ to fulfill the wave „5“ requirement.
An alternate view for N50 is, that the possible wave „iv“ high is a wave „a“ and the decline to today's low is a wave „b“ of a flat or a variation thereof.
Have a great week...
ruebennase
Feel free to ask or comment.
Trading this analyze is at your own risk!