Hello Traders,
at January 29 NIFTY 50 set a ATH@11171.55 and started a correction of nearly 1200 points. On August 28, again another new ATH was set at 11760 and the next correction of larger degree started and since has declined nearly 900 points. This is ~ 75% of the first move down and make (to my view) the odds high, that both corrections are part of the same degree.
While I was counting the January high as a wave 3 (Minor) and the August high a possible wave 5 (Minor), the huge advance since the low at Feb 2016 @ 6825 maybe complete a 5 wave advance. So the next logic consequence is a Major correction which is possibly in progress and has started at the Aug28 high as I wrote at my last analyse! So it is likely that the running decline is part of a wave 3 of 1 (Minutte) with targets at ~ 10690 zone, which will be the 1.618 FibExt of wave (i). More bearish potential exist!
At Friday N50 broke below the lower trendline of the (blue) channel. This behavior often occurs at the end of a wave 4 correction and is a possible fingertipp for an alternate count.
If the high at 11760 on Aug 28 is not a wave 5 (Minor) instead a wave 3 (Minor) the 10850.30 will be wave 4 (Minor) and a last leg to complete the advance to a new ATH is next to occur!
That means that the correction has to end within the next days without making significant fresh new lows. A common targetzone is the level of 10760 area, a wave 4 of lesser degree. Other targets I named at my last analyse are valid!
So the chart is open to different interpretation and we need to see more indikations and pattern to blow away the mist before our eyes!
Note: More negative mood at Indias politics or Society and a strong advance to the upside at N50 will possibly set the stage for an ending correction and the next leg up!
Be prepared for the unexpected
Have agreat week...
ruebennase
at January 29 NIFTY 50 set a ATH@11171.55 and started a correction of nearly 1200 points. On August 28, again another new ATH was set at 11760 and the next correction of larger degree started and since has declined nearly 900 points. This is ~ 75% of the first move down and make (to my view) the odds high, that both corrections are part of the same degree.
While I was counting the January high as a wave 3 (Minor) and the August high a possible wave 5 (Minor), the huge advance since the low at Feb 2016 @ 6825 maybe complete a 5 wave advance. So the next logic consequence is a Major correction which is possibly in progress and has started at the Aug28 high as I wrote at my last analyse! So it is likely that the running decline is part of a wave 3 of 1 (Minutte) with targets at ~ 10690 zone, which will be the 1.618 FibExt of wave (i). More bearish potential exist!
At Friday N50 broke below the lower trendline of the (blue) channel. This behavior often occurs at the end of a wave 4 correction and is a possible fingertipp for an alternate count.
If the high at 11760 on Aug 28 is not a wave 5 (Minor) instead a wave 3 (Minor) the 10850.30 will be wave 4 (Minor) and a last leg to complete the advance to a new ATH is next to occur!
That means that the correction has to end within the next days without making significant fresh new lows. A common targetzone is the level of 10760 area, a wave 4 of lesser degree. Other targets I named at my last analyse are valid!
So the chart is open to different interpretation and we need to see more indikations and pattern to blow away the mist before our eyes!
Note: More negative mood at Indias politics or Society and a strong advance to the upside at N50 will possibly set the stage for an ending correction and the next leg up!
Be prepared for the unexpected
Have agreat week...
ruebennase