Hello Traders,
NIFTY50 dropped this morning with a massiv gap down to an open price to 10735.82 and closed the day @10552.70, which is well below my target zone at 10700-10690.
For now I think the selloff is done or close to do so, with one more (up)down-sequence to 10530-10505! After that a countertrend is possible to occur.
A/d-Ratio was weak at 0.28 as it was yesterday at 0.39. Those weak days often occurs at forefront for a countertrend move. It also met nearly perfectly the low at 10557 which is a wave 2 low of lesser degree, which fits well into the pattern, that the last move up to the “throw-over“ was an extended wave 5. Pricetarget for correction after such a wave are common at the area of the wave 2of the degree whic is under pressure within a correction (the same degree)!
But notice, more bearish potencial exist!
With all Major indexes to break down and trade below there respective highs and at fresh new lows, the odds do increase that correction is unterway, which will be longer in price and time.
, the leader at the last weeks raise, broke down and turned back into it`trendchannel, forming by the high at 13076.55 on Jan 23 and 14294.15 on April 15, which make it possible, that a „throw-over“ occured and a longterm bullrun has ended too.
At SENSEX you will observe, that both corrections (marked with the rectangle) has been equal in price too. Todays „selloff“ hit also nearly the lower boundary line off the channel, formed off the wave 1 and 3 high and drawn with a paralle-line to the downside. A „false-breakout“ to the downside of the channel is often to observe, will push traders uncertainty into a kind of „panic“ which will be the fuel for a countertrend move to the upside!
And third, the „Ishares S&P India NIFTY50 Index Fund“, a barometer if money flew into the market and „real“ traders do buy India stocks dropped also to a fresh new low at 33.18$ and exeed there losses down to the 0.5 Fibonacci of the wave(ii) -(iii) move, that is also the maximum to allow for a wave (iv) correction! So the Ishares have to reverse within the next hours sharply!
Overall the chartpattern are really similar and set the stage for a correction as I said within the last days!
But nothing that raises for long, will be drop and never turn back! So if the mood for traders is really „bad“ and sentiment is at the lowest rates, the light at the end off the tunnel will be seen!
Keep that in mind and act cautiously and prudently!
Have a great day...
ruebennase
Questions and Comments are welcome!
Note!---> This analys can be wrong. It is just in my view the one with the most probabiltity with the Data which are available to me and by my interpretation of the EW Theory. If you trade this it is done by your own risk and decision! Keep that in Mind!!!
Data by NSEIndia.com!
NIFTY50 dropped this morning with a massiv gap down to an open price to 10735.82 and closed the day @10552.70, which is well below my target zone at 10700-10690.
For now I think the selloff is done or close to do so, with one more (up)down-sequence to 10530-10505! After that a countertrend is possible to occur.
A/d-Ratio was weak at 0.28 as it was yesterday at 0.39. Those weak days often occurs at forefront for a countertrend move. It also met nearly perfectly the low at 10557 which is a wave 2 low of lesser degree, which fits well into the pattern, that the last move up to the “throw-over“ was an extended wave 5. Pricetarget for correction after such a wave are common at the area of the wave 2of the degree whic is under pressure within a correction (the same degree)!
But notice, more bearish potencial exist!
With all Major indexes to break down and trade below there respective highs and at fresh new lows, the odds do increase that correction is unterway, which will be longer in price and time.
, the leader at the last weeks raise, broke down and turned back into it`trendchannel, forming by the high at 13076.55 on Jan 23 and 14294.15 on April 15, which make it possible, that a „throw-over“ occured and a longterm bullrun has ended too.
At SENSEX you will observe, that both corrections (marked with the rectangle) has been equal in price too. Todays „selloff“ hit also nearly the lower boundary line off the channel, formed off the wave 1 and 3 high and drawn with a paralle-line to the downside. A „false-breakout“ to the downside of the channel is often to observe, will push traders uncertainty into a kind of „panic“ which will be the fuel for a countertrend move to the upside!
And third, the „Ishares S&P India NIFTY50 Index Fund“, a barometer if money flew into the market and „real“ traders do buy India stocks dropped also to a fresh new low at 33.18$ and exeed there losses down to the 0.5 Fibonacci of the wave(ii) -(iii) move, that is also the maximum to allow for a wave (iv) correction! So the Ishares have to reverse within the next hours sharply!
Overall the chartpattern are really similar and set the stage for a correction as I said within the last days!
But nothing that raises for long, will be drop and never turn back! So if the mood for traders is really „bad“ and sentiment is at the lowest rates, the light at the end off the tunnel will be seen!
Keep that in mind and act cautiously and prudently!
Have a great day...
ruebennase
Questions and Comments are welcome!
Note!---> This analys can be wrong. It is just in my view the one with the most probabiltity with the Data which are available to me and by my interpretation of the EW Theory. If you trade this it is done by your own risk and decision! Keep that in Mind!!!
Data by NSEIndia.com!