🔥 NIFTY 50 – Supercycle Wave 5 Exhaustion! Short Setup Loading ⚠️📉 🔥
Hey traders 👋 — NIFTY looks like it’s entering the most critical phase of its multi-decade Elliott Wave structure. The chart is screaming exhaustion — and all the technical confluences are lining up for a macro short setup before the final leg of this supercycle. Let’s break it down 👇
🌊 Elliott Wave Structure – The Supercycle Story Unfolding
We’ve been in a massive 5-wave supercycle since the early 1990s, and we’re now deep inside Wave (5) — the last impulsive leg of this cycle.
Here’s the roadmap so far:
Inside Wave 5:
But here’s the key 👇
We’re at the end of Wave 3 of 5, and Wave 4 is just starting — meaning a significant correction is due.
⚙️ Fibonacci & Price Confluence
Wave 3 extended powerfully, testing the 2.618 Fib zone, with heavy confluence near 26K–27K — a perfect resistance band.
From here:
That gives us a short setup zone from 26K–27K, with targets between 19K–15.7K over the next 12–18 months 📉
💰 Smart Money Concepts (SMC) – Distribution Confirmed
SMC structure is showing clear distribution behavior at the highs:
Institutions are distributing, not accumulating.
Once 24K–23.8K breaks, we’ll have full confirmation of bearish displacement and macro BOS (Break of Structure) — validating the short thesis.
🧱 Market Structure & Price Action
🧭 Market Cycle & Sentiment
We’re in the Euphoria → Distribution transition — the same emotional shift seen before major corrections:
Retail believes “the market always goes up,” while Smart Money quietly exits.
Once the correction gains traction, expect sentiment to swing toward Complacency and Anxiety, setting up the bottom of Wave 4 around 2026.
🧮 Fundamentals Aligning with Technicals
All these align perfectly with a macro corrective phase (Wave 4).
⚡ Short Setup Plan (Swing / Positional Idea)
📍 Zone of Interest: 26K–27K (Fibonacci extension + structural resistance)
📍 Confirmation Trigger: Breakdown below 24K (CHoCH + BOS confirmation)
📍 Targets:
📍 Invalidation: Sustained breakout above 27K with volume (would imply Wave 3 still extending).
🧨 Summary – Short Setup View
💬 Final Thoughts:
NIFTY’s long-term trend is still intact — but short-term, this is a golden short setup inside a major Wave 4 correction. The correction could last well into 2026 before the final euphoric push to 34K–36K by 2029.
Patience + confirmation = profit 💯
👇 What do you think — has Wave 4 already begun, or will we see one last liquidity sweep above 26K?
#Nifty50 #ElliottWave #SmartMoneyConcepts #Wave4 #ShortSetup #MarketStructure #TechnicalAnalysis #TradingView
Hey traders 👋 — NIFTY looks like it’s entering the most critical phase of its multi-decade Elliott Wave structure. The chart is screaming exhaustion — and all the technical confluences are lining up for a macro short setup before the final leg of this supercycle. Let’s break it down 👇
🌊 Elliott Wave Structure – The Supercycle Story Unfolding
We’ve been in a massive 5-wave supercycle since the early 1990s, and we’re now deep inside Wave (5) — the last impulsive leg of this cycle.
Here’s the roadmap so far:
- 🟢 Wave 1: Topped in 1994
- 🔵 Wave 2: Bottomed in 1998
- 🟢 Wave 3: Ended in 2007 (the euphoric pre-crash top)
- 🔵 Wave 4: Bottomed in 2008
- 🟢 Wave 5: Currently unfolding with 5 macro waves
Inside Wave 5:
- Wave 1 topped in 2015
- Wave 2 corrected into 2020 (W–X–Y structure)
- Wave 3 topped in 2024 — the strongest impulsive phase
- Wave 4 correction is now developing and expected to run until 2026
- Wave 5 to top around 2029 near 34K–36K (2.618 Fib)
But here’s the key 👇
We’re at the end of Wave 3 of 5, and Wave 4 is just starting — meaning a significant correction is due.
⚙️ Fibonacci & Price Confluence
Wave 3 extended powerfully, testing the 2.618 Fib zone, with heavy confluence near 26K–27K — a perfect resistance band.
From here:
- 0.236 retracement target (minor correction): ~₹19,100
- 0.382 retracement (major correction): ~₹15,700
That gives us a short setup zone from 26K–27K, with targets between 19K–15.7K over the next 12–18 months 📉
💰 Smart Money Concepts (SMC) – Distribution Confirmed
SMC structure is showing clear distribution behavior at the highs:
- Liquidity sweeps above equal highs near 26K
- Signs of Change of Character (CHoCH) on lower timeframes
- Weak reaction from demand zones → sellers stepping in
- Premium-to-discount shift beginning
Institutions are distributing, not accumulating.
Once 24K–23.8K breaks, we’ll have full confirmation of bearish displacement and macro BOS (Break of Structure) — validating the short thesis.
🧱 Market Structure & Price Action
- The uptrend is losing momentum; price is grinding instead of impulsing.
- A rising wedge / ending diagonal pattern is visible — classic Wave 5 exhaustion signal.
- Momentum divergences on weekly RSI and MACD confirm weakening internal strength.
- A confirmed break below 24K will open clean liquidity voids toward 19K, then 15.7K.
🧭 Market Cycle & Sentiment
We’re in the Euphoria → Distribution transition — the same emotional shift seen before major corrections:
Retail believes “the market always goes up,” while Smart Money quietly exits.
Once the correction gains traction, expect sentiment to swing toward Complacency and Anxiety, setting up the bottom of Wave 4 around 2026.
🧮 Fundamentals Aligning with Technicals
- Valuations remain stretched — NIFTY’s P/E above long-term averages.
- Global risk factors (rates, oil, geopolitics) are aligning for a liquidity squeeze.
- Earnings momentum is flattening; price has outpaced fundamentals.
All these align perfectly with a macro corrective phase (Wave 4).
⚡ Short Setup Plan (Swing / Positional Idea)
📍 Zone of Interest: 26K–27K (Fibonacci extension + structural resistance)
📍 Confirmation Trigger: Breakdown below 24K (CHoCH + BOS confirmation)
📍 Targets:
- TP1 → ₹19,100 (Fib 0.236 + demand zone)
- TP2 → ₹15,700 (Fib 0.382 + structural low)
📍 Invalidation: Sustained breakout above 27K with volume (would imply Wave 3 still extending).
🧨 Summary – Short Setup View
- 🟥 Wave 5’s internal Wave 3 likely topped at 26K–27K
- 🟧 Smart Money distributing at premium
- 🟨 Rising wedge + divergence confirming exhaustion
- 🟩 Breakdown below 24K = Wave 4 confirmed
- 🟢 Short targets: 19K → 15.7K
💬 Final Thoughts:
NIFTY’s long-term trend is still intact — but short-term, this is a golden short setup inside a major Wave 4 correction. The correction could last well into 2026 before the final euphoric push to 34K–36K by 2029.
Patience + confirmation = profit 💯
👇 What do you think — has Wave 4 already begun, or will we see one last liquidity sweep above 26K?
#Nifty50 #ElliottWave #SmartMoneyConcepts #Wave4 #ShortSetup #MarketStructure #TechnicalAnalysis #TradingView
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The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.