Hello Traders,
the high on August 31 (@11794.25) is wave 5 of (Y) of ((2)). It completes a countertrend rally from the March lows @ 7511 (intraday low) and 7801.05 (closing price)! The next waves should draw N50 to 10882.25, a wave 4 of two lesser degrees. More bearish potential exists!
Any push above the August 31 high make this forecast invalid and tells us, that an acceleration of the rising price for several weeks should be underway.
While the decline from 11794.25 is not clear an impulsive move it is possible to count these waves as an „LDT“ (Leading diagonal triangle). After an „LDT“ a strong retracement is to occur and that is what happened the latter days. N50 retraced close to the 0.786 Fibonacci and creates an „Evening-star“, a bearish chart formation. While N50 not often respect the candlestick patterns, I will be patient by calling out a trend-reversal from this POV! We will see how this pattern will be resolved.
At the 30 minute chart, I have counted the LDT to sho the inner structure. The „rally“ from the wave „v“ low @ 11185.15 was a „Zigzag-pattern“ where wave „c“ retraced close to a 0.618 Fibonacci of wave „a“ (failed by less than 2 points)!
This Fibonacci relationship is often a level for a reversal, but this is just a guideline. A move above the 11618 could mean that N50 will extend to the level, where waves“c“ equals „a“! In any case, from current or higher level the next significant move is to the downside.
As before. Any push above the August 31 high makes this forecast invalid.
Have a great week...
ruebennase
Feel free to ask or comment!
Trading this analysis is at your own risk!
the high on August 31 (@11794.25) is wave 5 of (Y) of ((2)). It completes a countertrend rally from the March lows @ 7511 (intraday low) and 7801.05 (closing price)! The next waves should draw N50 to 10882.25, a wave 4 of two lesser degrees. More bearish potential exists!
Any push above the August 31 high make this forecast invalid and tells us, that an acceleration of the rising price for several weeks should be underway.
While the decline from 11794.25 is not clear an impulsive move it is possible to count these waves as an „LDT“ (Leading diagonal triangle). After an „LDT“ a strong retracement is to occur and that is what happened the latter days. N50 retraced close to the 0.786 Fibonacci and creates an „Evening-star“, a bearish chart formation. While N50 not often respect the candlestick patterns, I will be patient by calling out a trend-reversal from this POV! We will see how this pattern will be resolved.
At the 30 minute chart, I have counted the LDT to sho the inner structure. The „rally“ from the wave „v“ low @ 11185.15 was a „Zigzag-pattern“ where wave „c“ retraced close to a 0.618 Fibonacci of wave „a“ (failed by less than 2 points)!
This Fibonacci relationship is often a level for a reversal, but this is just a guideline. A move above the 11618 could mean that N50 will extend to the level, where waves“c“ equals „a“! In any case, from current or higher level the next significant move is to the downside.
As before. Any push above the August 31 high makes this forecast invalid.
Have a great week...
ruebennase
Feel free to ask or comment!
Trading this analysis is at your own risk!