RBI governor Rajan's planned exit didn't hit the market and instead it cheered for future rate cut which we advised is a trap and a mistake for market. But now today's surprised ( we thought it is going to be a dud event until yesterday but we were mistaken ) Brexit outcome has thrown all markets in disarray. Besides, today is Friday and markets are going to be closed for next two days is also not helping it to stabilize. S&P are down more than 100 points with Dow Jones showing a decline of more than 600 points is not going to paint a pretty picture at the US open. Not to mention the hysteria Forex market is experiencing.
For Indian market, question becomes really tricky. As we said earlier that Rupee decline against Dollar looks like inevitable. New RBI governor no matter how capable he / she is, can't shore up the market in a day because the person will be unknown to the global investor community and it is difficult to have faith in new person from day one. It is really a big mistake to oust a well established Governor during the time of adversity. We are not saying that Rajan can cure it all and he is the greatest. Many emperors have come and gone and world doesn't give a s**t. And universe doesn't care who is PM and who is President. We are just highlighting short or medium term pain which investors have to go through due to such events. As traders we are connected with markets and politics affect market in big way, so that's the only reason we analyze what is good and bad for market.
So in short, declining currency with global market panic is a recipe for disaster in short term at least. Still market is in flux and until we get the clarity after the dust settles it is difficult to pick a trade. Let's wait and watch, what kind of tricks global powers come up with to stabilize markets over the weekend. 8000 is going to be pivotal today for NIFTY , followed by 7750. In any other circumstances we would have taken a small long here but this Brexit scenario is really a new one and also a big unknown, so it is advisable not to trade when we don't have any clue !
We closed all our Forex positions yesterday and got long Gold , which has turned out really good ! Have a nice weekend !