Hello Traders,
since my latter analysis, N50 declined to 11515.90 on September18! This move should be part of acceleration on declining prices in the coming days.
A push above the level of 11618.10, the high on September 16 should lead to a higher level, maybe around the 11767.30 area. From this level, a change of trend needs to occur, to keep this analysis valid. An extension to the area of the ATH would mean, that N50 will advance for some more days and weeks to come.
At the right-hand corner of the graph, you can see the daily chart. I like to show you the acceleration of the advance from the March lows, here with the a/d-ratio.
Normally the ratio expands to higher levels within an impulsive wave, which means the „third of a third“ is usually the strongest wave of advance. As per my count, this level was on July 13, but the ratio was the weakest in nearly total of the advance with a reading of 0.61!
The strongest ratios occur at the start of the advance on April 7 (5.87) and April 9 (5.89) and again on June 5 (6.7)! All other readings after have failed to extend this readings, which make an impulsive move less likely! This is one of the reasons, while I am counting the move from the March lows as a countertrend! My total count from the March lows is a „Zigzag-pattern“, which has extend to a Fib.-Extension around equality of waves a and c.
So, as long as the August 31 high is valid, the focus for price is to the downside.
Short-term a break of Friday`s intraday low @ 11446.10 would lead to a touch of the grey upsloping trendline (@ ~11430 area and below to the wave b low @ 11383.55. Much more bearish potential exists, a level should be around the wave (i) low @ 11185.54.
Have a great weekend....
ruebennase
Feel free to asko r cemment!
Trading this analysis is at your own risk!
since my latter analysis, N50 declined to 11515.90 on September18! This move should be part of acceleration on declining prices in the coming days.
A push above the level of 11618.10, the high on September 16 should lead to a higher level, maybe around the 11767.30 area. From this level, a change of trend needs to occur, to keep this analysis valid. An extension to the area of the ATH would mean, that N50 will advance for some more days and weeks to come.
At the right-hand corner of the graph, you can see the daily chart. I like to show you the acceleration of the advance from the March lows, here with the a/d-ratio.
Normally the ratio expands to higher levels within an impulsive wave, which means the „third of a third“ is usually the strongest wave of advance. As per my count, this level was on July 13, but the ratio was the weakest in nearly total of the advance with a reading of 0.61!
The strongest ratios occur at the start of the advance on April 7 (5.87) and April 9 (5.89) and again on June 5 (6.7)! All other readings after have failed to extend this readings, which make an impulsive move less likely! This is one of the reasons, while I am counting the move from the March lows as a countertrend! My total count from the March lows is a „Zigzag-pattern“, which has extend to a Fib.-Extension around equality of waves a and c.
So, as long as the August 31 high is valid, the focus for price is to the downside.
Short-term a break of Friday`s intraday low @ 11446.10 would lead to a touch of the grey upsloping trendline (@ ~11430 area and below to the wave b low @ 11383.55. Much more bearish potential exists, a level should be around the wave (i) low @ 11185.54.
Have a great weekend....
ruebennase
Feel free to asko r cemment!
Trading this analysis is at your own risk!