Nio; China's Answer to South Africa's American Entrepreneur?
Disclaimer
This is in no way, shape, or form, financial or intelligent advice. This is literally my diary page on a company for shiggles. In fact, I am so poor that my A key is broken, so every time you see an A, know that I work extra hard to get that out there. So today's diary page is brought you to by the letter A.
Introduction/Theorem
First, I view Nio as a long term risky play. This isn't a long term sure thing, this is a long term, I sure do hope it blows up in a few years sort of thing.
Second, this isn't my specialty, I don't know all that much about EV tech, so anything I share is amateur sleuthing and not a professional opinion or knowledge, so don't view it as anything other than a Snapple fact (I literally don't know if they are real or not).
Third, I view Nio as the possible rise of a trend, and the last push of China, or maybe the last attack in the first wave? For too long have American or European companies been the fashion of the wealthy in the East. China has shown they can dominate the games industry with Tencent. China has shown they can do Amazon too. China have mainstream electronics companies, from low to high end. Nio just might be their answer to Tesla.
Of course "China's answer" doesn't mean China the government have some sort of reason to ensure that Nio succeeds, certainly not for their share of the scale of technological power that belongs to the truly superpower of the world, certainly not for their own government's sake, and certainly not because all men are childish boys playing infinite pissing games and Xi Dada wants to laugh in Macron, Biden and 's face. I think we can all agree that we have had to grow up out of the "China is a third world country that every good boy American company takes advantage of" to "China is an overgrown boy suckling at the teat of 20 year old treaties and has now become a big strong buff dude that is definitely not going to beat our butts because we abused the absolute nonsense out of them", because Karma is definitely not real, and that saying that you always get what you deserve isn't real, so instead of respecting everyone else and trying to march into the future together, we are playing the game of king of the hill. So yes, I think that Nio posing as China's Tesla isn't just a poor copy, this is a potential cold-war that we are only just not recognizing. Don't forget that Elon's phallic love-child SpaceX just got 3.3 billion from NASA to go to the moon. I also won't be surprised if Tesla get's a very large nod from Biden's infrastructure plan. Because when you let unfettered capitalism rampage and rape the entire globe, and you've come to the end game of the phase that comes right before pure dystopian scifi Bladerunner, the big companies get to be the new cold war.
So when you read the rest of this fanfic, just remember this imagery for the background. And keep an air of levity to my tones. I try to separate the real data from the narrative, but this is the lens I look at the data through, so if something refutes my hypothesis, I may have ignored it. So do your own research and don't blindly trust a thing I say.
Basic Psychology/Explanation of the Chart
First off, the neon pink arrows are a basic elliot wave analysis. I believe that we are post impulse waves, into the correction waves and headed towards the next set. I think we are in a descending bull pennant that will transform into an impulse wave bringing us back into the growth channel shown by the green lines. I think that the giant peak outside of this channel was anomalous, or rather due to outside normal market forces, and that any major time outside of this channel is due to an emerging factor that will nullify this channel and thus drive the need for a new one, which I will attempt to keep up with so you can keep coming back for updates if you so desire.
I believe the next impulse wave should put us back into the growth channel barring significant technological or business advancements coming from Nio, which I doubt we will see 2021. I think that the upcoming Shanghai show where Nio shows its electric grid business plans will be the catalyst for the next impulse wave, but the very belief that this event will be a catalyst could be the catalyst, so don't be pissed if my lines don't fit right. Also, the market might have some serious correction's soon, so don't be pissed if my lines don't fit on that end either, because they are random lines drawn by an idiot. I will mention that, if some event were to cause a significant dent in the American economy, this would pose as the perfect opportunity for China to strike and launch their technological invasion sooner, and I do think Nio will be the horse that runs it. That isn't just personal opinion either, Nio got bailed out by China in 2020, and here is an article all about it by the Verge, because thats the surface of my care for need of proof of this.
Here is also the basic psychology into why stonks go up:
Waves of investors come along with increasing sums of money that believe the stock is undervalued and deserves a greater price than what they pay for. Thus, it having an insane price for it's true value shouldn't be, but still does feel surprising, but it isn't like Tesla is only afloat because it sells its fake carbon credits, right? (just a joke Elon, chill)
Nio through that massive wave this past year isn't some foolish moron buying high like a schmuck so much as a mix of people who came in early, and those who caught serious FOMO. So as these waves into these increasing price ranges cause most of these FOMO investors to sell out, the "intrinsic" price of the asset increases. Cup and handle is a widely recognized phenomena for a reason.
Financials/Fundamental Investment Reasoning
Nio is this hot shot startup led by an enigmatic genius who is causing a predominantly Western-leaning class in China to buy local. This isn't just Chinese Tesla, but could be the public machine of an increasing fomentation of pride in China as they embrace modern capitalism. So they have all the financial showings of such a company, high debt, low income, negative EBIT, increasing R&D costs. In fact, if you were wondering why I include R&D costs into the chart, think of R&D as the quantitative administrative attitude in the future of the company. If the company believes they have a place in the future, they do research, if they want to grow, they do research, if they want to increase in size now and forever more, they do research. Seeing this increase so much quarter by quarter is awesome, and could be the result of high level sentiment that they had indeed made it, and can now start working on making it in the future.
I won't post the standard stuff you can find out tradingview's little sidebar, but here is the current institutions and hedgefund investors as of 12/31/2020...
www.nasdaq.com/marke...stitutional-holdings
It sucks because all of this is pre-bubble with the explosive price increase and the fall, but illustrates a general sentiment:
All the classic longs have bought in, and have been increasing their buy-ins. One quick note, the biggest buyer on the list is Norges Bank, the central bank of Norway. Seeing the big list of longs make me feel good, Vanguard, Blackrock, few different pension funds; but seeing UBS and State as longs makes me feel even better. Of course, without more recent data, any of these could have changed positions and gone short against in 2021.
The CEO/Founder owns about 13.5% of the company. I have no idea if he sold any in the latest spat, but if he wants to draw comparisons to the West's billionaires, he will keep his stock for that lucrative net-worth.
whalewisdom.com/stock/nio-2
It is quite clear that hedgefunds have accepted running their puts and calls through their banks, as was discussed from hedgefund managers post-initial GME squeeze. Furthermore, Nio is a good example of making money for investors using puts and calls. Their stable growth channel created a really cheap opening for big puts and calls, it is quite clear someone took advantage of it from the last big run. There really isn't too much to note, the data is too old, will update when next batch comes out.
fintel.io/ss/us/nio
Pretty low short volume per day sitting at 30%, short interest is hidden from me, but I would bet there are a bunch of shorts sitting out there from the last spike. Things like this make that next impulse wave happen, as people are forced to cover, combined with increased institutional buyers betting on a growing EV and electric network in China, should hopefully put us back into the growth channel, or above! Remember, 30% short volume per day really isn't special, it seems high, but absolutely none of those could be real shorts, this could all be just increased liquidity from market makers or HFT.
Science/Technology
This is ruff as this is not my field, companies hide this info and China has been one of the leaders of industrial espionage of Western companies, so if Nio is going to bear a large amount of weight of the Chinese government's technological push, then expect them to have access to the same tech and data as every other company and the ability to use it without any major issues. This isn't to say that they will have the same tech on the same time scale as other companies, nor does it account for Nio's own R&D. Don't forget that Nio's big start was because of the hot shot founder. I have been hearing and seeing his name in tech articles for years way before Nio became a viable investment. With that said, lets review the short term push into autonomous driving, as we can all agree that battery tech is by far in Tesla's court, but no company is currently using or has manufacturing capabilities of true next gen batteries. But if I had to choose who to put more stock into battery tech, I would choose Tesla & Nio equally. I think Nio has an innate benefit of China, both a massive wealth of resources and workers, a market that is genuinely the most populous, and the fact that China is very willing to do out loud what every other country does in the shadows, meaning they won't waste time and won't hesitate to do something unethical (relax, every country is doing unethical stuff, I give mad props to China for just not giving a shit about the show anymore).
ET7 - their Model 3
On their breakout sedan with self-driving, www.nio.com/news/nio...us-driving-model-et7
NIO Aquila Super Sensing features 33 high-performance sensing units, including 11 8-megapixel high-resolution cameras, 1 ultralong-range high-resolution LiDAR, 5 millimeter-wave radars, 12 ultrasonic sensors, 2 high-precision positioning units, V2X and ADMS. Aquila can generate 8-gigabyte data per second. NIO Adam features 4 NVIDIA DRIVE Orin SoCs with a total computing power of 1,016 TOPS.
Similar to Tesla with the cameras, which is no surprise as cameras + AI are a literal mimic to humans, so this is going to be how we make the first major push into full autonomy. I don't know this tech, but it is nice to see them utilizing a mix of everything. Lidar is essentially radar in that it shoots high frequency radiowaves out, it bounces off of stuff, comes back to the sensor, giving it a bunch of information like general size, distance, speed, etc. Its echolocation like bats use. Lidar has been a huge part of autonomous driving before (I am 95% sure of this fact), but Elon Musk has recently come out against using Lidar at all, and instead focusing on just cameras. I don't know if that is really going to make a difference to either companies market platform, but it does highlight Tesla being an independent technology, while also showing that Tesla will be constrained by their Technoking's declarations. The rest of those words don't mean much to me, nor should they to you because its all sales baloney. It has a lot of sensors and computes a lot, cool.
For the actual car:
180 kW permanent magnet motor in the front and a 300 kW induction motor in the rear. The maximum power is rated at 480 kW with a peak torque at 850 N·m. The ET7 accelerates from 0 to 100 km/h in 3.9 seconds, and has a 33.5m braking distance from 100 km/h. Boosted by a drag coefficient of 0.23 and the application of the second generation high-efficiency powertrain with a silicon carbide power module, the vehicle energy efficiency is further improved. The ET7 enjoys an NEDC range of over 500 km with the 70kWh battery or over 700 km with the 100 kWh battery. When coupled with the new 150 kWh battery, ET7 boasts an NEDC range over 1,000 km.
First off, this is a solid blog post, check this out: www.danatm4.com/blog...otor-topologies-101/
The car is nice, if Nio were to offer me one, I won't say no *cough cough*, but this car isn't what you are investing in. It is the general company structure, so take a visit to Nio's site: www.nio.com
Nio-Power
Wow, its literally Tesla with a different company logo. They say mimicry is the highest form of compliments, and this isn't a bad thing. Truth be told, I would rather them jump on this than not. Tesla can't pump solar roof, tesla home or whatever else they call it quick enough in the West, thinking they can take on the East with their slow manufacturing is a joke. If Nio is able to pump this out in China at the same rate as Tesla is in America, Nio wins.
Nio-House
It's a clubhouse. Not even kidding, it is a friggin club house for people to chill at, and it looks lit (What is up my fellow dudes and dudettes). It's a concept store where it merges into a clubhouse with different areas, basically a place where you can roll in to chill, like a country club but themed around the whole day and different members of the house. It is cool in that it embraces the cult-like following that Tesla built up, perhaps in a hope to spark their own feverish fanbase?
Nio-Life
They are branding a lifestyle. This is China meets keeping up with the Joneses. This is absolutely insane, they made a friggin Macy's catalogue. If Nio catches on, it becomes everything to its members. It seels them everything, from a place to hang out, to meeting the homes electrical needs, to offering you plates and waterbottles.
Li Bin - The CEO
Turns out the boy is a perfect portrayal of American exceptionalism. He was born into a poor dairy farm family in China, where his family saved to send him to Peking University, where he exceled, got lots of degrees and then made lots of money by being an entrepreneur and investor. The guy has had a huge string of successes his whole career, and Nio isn't his first rodeo, but certainly looks like his greatest buck.
I tried to find information on his relationship with the chinese government and the CCCP, I couldn't find anything. I don't read or speak Mandarin (or any other Chinese language), so my access is limited, but it certainly does look like this is an avenue left unventured for western media. My innate predication is that Li Bin has been successful, has received tremendous support from the government, and looks like a perfect poster boy for success. Even better, he doesn't run his mouth like Elon.
The Plan
I don't believe in Nio so much as I believe in China wanting Nio to beat Tesla. Tesla doesn't even think Nio is worth a thought. In fact, Tesla saved Nio back in 2020 when Nio sold it's production equipment to Tesla to save the company. If Tesla really wanted, letting Nio fail, or at least flounder a little more, would have been the wiser decision against competition, but Elon clearly doesn't believe there is competition for Tesla.
I truly believe that Nio's current technology isn't what is important, and thats not to say that I think they are a phony company propped up by China and fed by Chinese spies stealing read R&D from other companies; it is more that branding is everything, especially in modern chinese culture. And where American companies have dominated the social eye of the young and hip, maybe its time to accept Chinese Nationalism in a healthy way. China has made it clear, its not a developing nation anymore, they are a superpower. They have been spreading their claws into every country around them, further accelerated by the last 4 years of Trump's "America first and only" policies. I doubt Biden has the diplomatic strength, nor base, to stand up to the new China. I think both countries will come to the same conclusion as the last cold war, direct or indirect military escalations will not be the way to win, but rather the economic forces that one can impact upon the other. I think China has taken better steps because China just can, its the CCCP, them favouring NIO isn't economic nepotism, nor is it illegal or immoral to their people, it just is.
The only question that remains: Will the Chinese people embrace Nio and show unity with the new China?
TL;DR
I don't even know what that means. I am an idiot, this is really just a second disclaimer. This is literally my weird personal opinion and in no way bears any resemblance to the future.
This is in no way, shape, or form, financial or intelligent advice. This is literally my diary page on a company for shiggles. In fact, I am so poor that my A key is broken, so every time you see an A, know that I work extra hard to get that out there. So today's diary page is brought you to by the letter A.
Introduction/Theorem
First, I view Nio as a long term risky play. This isn't a long term sure thing, this is a long term, I sure do hope it blows up in a few years sort of thing.
Second, this isn't my specialty, I don't know all that much about EV tech, so anything I share is amateur sleuthing and not a professional opinion or knowledge, so don't view it as anything other than a Snapple fact (I literally don't know if they are real or not).
Third, I view Nio as the possible rise of a trend, and the last push of China, or maybe the last attack in the first wave? For too long have American or European companies been the fashion of the wealthy in the East. China has shown they can dominate the games industry with Tencent. China has shown they can do Amazon too. China have mainstream electronics companies, from low to high end. Nio just might be their answer to Tesla.
Of course "China's answer" doesn't mean China the government have some sort of reason to ensure that Nio succeeds, certainly not for their share of the scale of technological power that belongs to the truly superpower of the world, certainly not for their own government's sake, and certainly not because all men are childish boys playing infinite pissing games and Xi Dada wants to laugh in Macron, Biden and 's face. I think we can all agree that we have had to grow up out of the "China is a third world country that every good boy American company takes advantage of" to "China is an overgrown boy suckling at the teat of 20 year old treaties and has now become a big strong buff dude that is definitely not going to beat our butts because we abused the absolute nonsense out of them", because Karma is definitely not real, and that saying that you always get what you deserve isn't real, so instead of respecting everyone else and trying to march into the future together, we are playing the game of king of the hill. So yes, I think that Nio posing as China's Tesla isn't just a poor copy, this is a potential cold-war that we are only just not recognizing. Don't forget that Elon's phallic love-child SpaceX just got 3.3 billion from NASA to go to the moon. I also won't be surprised if Tesla get's a very large nod from Biden's infrastructure plan. Because when you let unfettered capitalism rampage and rape the entire globe, and you've come to the end game of the phase that comes right before pure dystopian scifi Bladerunner, the big companies get to be the new cold war.
So when you read the rest of this fanfic, just remember this imagery for the background. And keep an air of levity to my tones. I try to separate the real data from the narrative, but this is the lens I look at the data through, so if something refutes my hypothesis, I may have ignored it. So do your own research and don't blindly trust a thing I say.
Basic Psychology/Explanation of the Chart
First off, the neon pink arrows are a basic elliot wave analysis. I believe that we are post impulse waves, into the correction waves and headed towards the next set. I think we are in a descending bull pennant that will transform into an impulse wave bringing us back into the growth channel shown by the green lines. I think that the giant peak outside of this channel was anomalous, or rather due to outside normal market forces, and that any major time outside of this channel is due to an emerging factor that will nullify this channel and thus drive the need for a new one, which I will attempt to keep up with so you can keep coming back for updates if you so desire.
I believe the next impulse wave should put us back into the growth channel barring significant technological or business advancements coming from Nio, which I doubt we will see 2021. I think that the upcoming Shanghai show where Nio shows its electric grid business plans will be the catalyst for the next impulse wave, but the very belief that this event will be a catalyst could be the catalyst, so don't be pissed if my lines don't fit right. Also, the market might have some serious correction's soon, so don't be pissed if my lines don't fit on that end either, because they are random lines drawn by an idiot. I will mention that, if some event were to cause a significant dent in the American economy, this would pose as the perfect opportunity for China to strike and launch their technological invasion sooner, and I do think Nio will be the horse that runs it. That isn't just personal opinion either, Nio got bailed out by China in 2020, and here is an article all about it by the Verge, because thats the surface of my care for need of proof of this.
Here is also the basic psychology into why stonks go up:
Waves of investors come along with increasing sums of money that believe the stock is undervalued and deserves a greater price than what they pay for. Thus, it having an insane price for it's true value shouldn't be, but still does feel surprising, but it isn't like Tesla is only afloat because it sells its fake carbon credits, right? (just a joke Elon, chill)
Nio through that massive wave this past year isn't some foolish moron buying high like a schmuck so much as a mix of people who came in early, and those who caught serious FOMO. So as these waves into these increasing price ranges cause most of these FOMO investors to sell out, the "intrinsic" price of the asset increases. Cup and handle is a widely recognized phenomena for a reason.
Financials/Fundamental Investment Reasoning
Nio is this hot shot startup led by an enigmatic genius who is causing a predominantly Western-leaning class in China to buy local. This isn't just Chinese Tesla, but could be the public machine of an increasing fomentation of pride in China as they embrace modern capitalism. So they have all the financial showings of such a company, high debt, low income, negative EBIT, increasing R&D costs. In fact, if you were wondering why I include R&D costs into the chart, think of R&D as the quantitative administrative attitude in the future of the company. If the company believes they have a place in the future, they do research, if they want to grow, they do research, if they want to increase in size now and forever more, they do research. Seeing this increase so much quarter by quarter is awesome, and could be the result of high level sentiment that they had indeed made it, and can now start working on making it in the future.
I won't post the standard stuff you can find out tradingview's little sidebar, but here is the current institutions and hedgefund investors as of 12/31/2020...
www.nasdaq.com/marke...stitutional-holdings
It sucks because all of this is pre-bubble with the explosive price increase and the fall, but illustrates a general sentiment:
All the classic longs have bought in, and have been increasing their buy-ins. One quick note, the biggest buyer on the list is Norges Bank, the central bank of Norway. Seeing the big list of longs make me feel good, Vanguard, Blackrock, few different pension funds; but seeing UBS and State as longs makes me feel even better. Of course, without more recent data, any of these could have changed positions and gone short against in 2021.
The CEO/Founder owns about 13.5% of the company. I have no idea if he sold any in the latest spat, but if he wants to draw comparisons to the West's billionaires, he will keep his stock for that lucrative net-worth.
whalewisdom.com/stock/nio-2
It is quite clear that hedgefunds have accepted running their puts and calls through their banks, as was discussed from hedgefund managers post-initial GME squeeze. Furthermore, Nio is a good example of making money for investors using puts and calls. Their stable growth channel created a really cheap opening for big puts and calls, it is quite clear someone took advantage of it from the last big run. There really isn't too much to note, the data is too old, will update when next batch comes out.
fintel.io/ss/us/nio
Pretty low short volume per day sitting at 30%, short interest is hidden from me, but I would bet there are a bunch of shorts sitting out there from the last spike. Things like this make that next impulse wave happen, as people are forced to cover, combined with increased institutional buyers betting on a growing EV and electric network in China, should hopefully put us back into the growth channel, or above! Remember, 30% short volume per day really isn't special, it seems high, but absolutely none of those could be real shorts, this could all be just increased liquidity from market makers or HFT.
Science/Technology
This is ruff as this is not my field, companies hide this info and China has been one of the leaders of industrial espionage of Western companies, so if Nio is going to bear a large amount of weight of the Chinese government's technological push, then expect them to have access to the same tech and data as every other company and the ability to use it without any major issues. This isn't to say that they will have the same tech on the same time scale as other companies, nor does it account for Nio's own R&D. Don't forget that Nio's big start was because of the hot shot founder. I have been hearing and seeing his name in tech articles for years way before Nio became a viable investment. With that said, lets review the short term push into autonomous driving, as we can all agree that battery tech is by far in Tesla's court, but no company is currently using or has manufacturing capabilities of true next gen batteries. But if I had to choose who to put more stock into battery tech, I would choose Tesla & Nio equally. I think Nio has an innate benefit of China, both a massive wealth of resources and workers, a market that is genuinely the most populous, and the fact that China is very willing to do out loud what every other country does in the shadows, meaning they won't waste time and won't hesitate to do something unethical (relax, every country is doing unethical stuff, I give mad props to China for just not giving a shit about the show anymore).
ET7 - their Model 3
On their breakout sedan with self-driving, www.nio.com/news/nio...us-driving-model-et7
NIO Aquila Super Sensing features 33 high-performance sensing units, including 11 8-megapixel high-resolution cameras, 1 ultralong-range high-resolution LiDAR, 5 millimeter-wave radars, 12 ultrasonic sensors, 2 high-precision positioning units, V2X and ADMS. Aquila can generate 8-gigabyte data per second. NIO Adam features 4 NVIDIA DRIVE Orin SoCs with a total computing power of 1,016 TOPS.
Similar to Tesla with the cameras, which is no surprise as cameras + AI are a literal mimic to humans, so this is going to be how we make the first major push into full autonomy. I don't know this tech, but it is nice to see them utilizing a mix of everything. Lidar is essentially radar in that it shoots high frequency radiowaves out, it bounces off of stuff, comes back to the sensor, giving it a bunch of information like general size, distance, speed, etc. Its echolocation like bats use. Lidar has been a huge part of autonomous driving before (I am 95% sure of this fact), but Elon Musk has recently come out against using Lidar at all, and instead focusing on just cameras. I don't know if that is really going to make a difference to either companies market platform, but it does highlight Tesla being an independent technology, while also showing that Tesla will be constrained by their Technoking's declarations. The rest of those words don't mean much to me, nor should they to you because its all sales baloney. It has a lot of sensors and computes a lot, cool.
For the actual car:
180 kW permanent magnet motor in the front and a 300 kW induction motor in the rear. The maximum power is rated at 480 kW with a peak torque at 850 N·m. The ET7 accelerates from 0 to 100 km/h in 3.9 seconds, and has a 33.5m braking distance from 100 km/h. Boosted by a drag coefficient of 0.23 and the application of the second generation high-efficiency powertrain with a silicon carbide power module, the vehicle energy efficiency is further improved. The ET7 enjoys an NEDC range of over 500 km with the 70kWh battery or over 700 km with the 100 kWh battery. When coupled with the new 150 kWh battery, ET7 boasts an NEDC range over 1,000 km.
First off, this is a solid blog post, check this out: www.danatm4.com/blog...otor-topologies-101/
- Permanent magnet motor: www.controleng.com/a...anent-magnet-motors/
Forgive my lack of intelligence, this is how I understand this. I like pictures, so I made a simple one: imgur.com/a/ZGItHsg
Essentially, an electrical field is created, forcing magnets attached to the mechanical rotor to spin, thus creating mechanical kinetic movement from electricity. This is different from a standard Internal Combustion Enginer (ICE), where all the pieces are connected as the mechanical motion is driven by mini-explosions from gasoline and oxygen mixing straight away, where the cylinder pistons are pushed out (and then back in via reciprocal motion). Very basic thinking, greater the electrical field, the more the magnets will spin, the faster the rotor turns and the wheels go vroom vroom. This is a very basic explanation, it looks like there are different mechanisms of this, with some having a mix of the fixed rotor system of olde and the magnet motor of now, so it will be fun to see what happens in the future with this tech.
- Induction motor: empoweringpumps.com/...hronous-motors-fuji/
It feels like the permanent magnet motor and the induction motor are nearly identical, with the major difference being what the rotor is attached to. It seems to stand scientifically that Permanent Magnet Motors will be always better, but the challenge is that Induction motors are cheaper, so we may see a turn to multiple permanent magnet motors, or just straight up larger ones.
- Battery technology:
It looks like they use a standard boring old battery tech now, but just announced as of 2022 a solid state battery of 150kWh with a ~600 mile range, compared to the 100kWh which has ~400 mile range. This solid state battery tech is more expensive (of course), but offers greater electrical density, meaning more bang for volume/weight, and better life. I personally know of 30 different revolutionary battery technologies, so I don't really care about the specifics, it is obvious they aren't hoarding breakthrough technology on this end.
The car is nice, if Nio were to offer me one, I won't say no *cough cough*, but this car isn't what you are investing in. It is the general company structure, so take a visit to Nio's site: www.nio.com
Nio-Power
Wow, its literally Tesla with a different company logo. They say mimicry is the highest form of compliments, and this isn't a bad thing. Truth be told, I would rather them jump on this than not. Tesla can't pump solar roof, tesla home or whatever else they call it quick enough in the West, thinking they can take on the East with their slow manufacturing is a joke. If Nio is able to pump this out in China at the same rate as Tesla is in America, Nio wins.
Nio-House
It's a clubhouse. Not even kidding, it is a friggin club house for people to chill at, and it looks lit (What is up my fellow dudes and dudettes). It's a concept store where it merges into a clubhouse with different areas, basically a place where you can roll in to chill, like a country club but themed around the whole day and different members of the house. It is cool in that it embraces the cult-like following that Tesla built up, perhaps in a hope to spark their own feverish fanbase?
Nio-Life
They are branding a lifestyle. This is China meets keeping up with the Joneses. This is absolutely insane, they made a friggin Macy's catalogue. If Nio catches on, it becomes everything to its members. It seels them everything, from a place to hang out, to meeting the homes electrical needs, to offering you plates and waterbottles.
Li Bin - The CEO
Turns out the boy is a perfect portrayal of American exceptionalism. He was born into a poor dairy farm family in China, where his family saved to send him to Peking University, where he exceled, got lots of degrees and then made lots of money by being an entrepreneur and investor. The guy has had a huge string of successes his whole career, and Nio isn't his first rodeo, but certainly looks like his greatest buck.
I tried to find information on his relationship with the chinese government and the CCCP, I couldn't find anything. I don't read or speak Mandarin (or any other Chinese language), so my access is limited, but it certainly does look like this is an avenue left unventured for western media. My innate predication is that Li Bin has been successful, has received tremendous support from the government, and looks like a perfect poster boy for success. Even better, he doesn't run his mouth like Elon.
The Plan
I don't believe in Nio so much as I believe in China wanting Nio to beat Tesla. Tesla doesn't even think Nio is worth a thought. In fact, Tesla saved Nio back in 2020 when Nio sold it's production equipment to Tesla to save the company. If Tesla really wanted, letting Nio fail, or at least flounder a little more, would have been the wiser decision against competition, but Elon clearly doesn't believe there is competition for Tesla.
I truly believe that Nio's current technology isn't what is important, and thats not to say that I think they are a phony company propped up by China and fed by Chinese spies stealing read R&D from other companies; it is more that branding is everything, especially in modern chinese culture. And where American companies have dominated the social eye of the young and hip, maybe its time to accept Chinese Nationalism in a healthy way. China has made it clear, its not a developing nation anymore, they are a superpower. They have been spreading their claws into every country around them, further accelerated by the last 4 years of Trump's "America first and only" policies. I doubt Biden has the diplomatic strength, nor base, to stand up to the new China. I think both countries will come to the same conclusion as the last cold war, direct or indirect military escalations will not be the way to win, but rather the economic forces that one can impact upon the other. I think China has taken better steps because China just can, its the CCCP, them favouring NIO isn't economic nepotism, nor is it illegal or immoral to their people, it just is.
The only question that remains: Will the Chinese people embrace Nio and show unity with the new China?
TL;DR
I don't even know what that means. I am an idiot, this is really just a second disclaimer. This is literally my weird personal opinion and in no way bears any resemblance to the future.
www.nasdaq.com/marke...cks/nio/option-chain
May 21st has more open interest in calls and puts than anything else surrounding it, with 40k ITM calls at 40$, and with the current price now...
With that said, it has 27k open interest puts for 40$. This could just be normal hedging of bets, but be prepared for someone to have been more invested one way or another and some significant price action to occur that week.