Zulu_Kilo

NIO Pre-market analysis 12/8/22 looking at volume for bull case

Short
Zulu_Kilo Updated   
NYSE:NIO   NIO Inc.
I haven't seen quite yet was I was hoping for the other day, and frankly a bullish case for NIo is starting to look worse and worse here. I am actually leaning more and more to the BEARISH side since analyzing the price action yesterday.

While we did make a nice retracement from the $12.20 spot I talked about in my last idea, we have not picked up enough volume on the retracement from the high to match up with the last bullish structure, to support a bullish case just yet. IF anything, the bearish retracement was verified, indicating a likely lower low is inbound. There is really not much room left for price to pick up buyers in the last bullish order block.

We still have one more order block for price/volume discovery, before the bullish case on NIO goes out the window, and we find ourselves with a critically broken structure to the downside.

Today's trading day will be a key day.

I am seeing a morning reversal to make a new low (OR a double bottom) at or below $12.15.

How I'm playing this:

PATIENCE IS THE KEY HERE.... Do NOT rush into a position today. Let price and volume show you what's going to happen.

-The last green bullish order block zone is the key: If we have LOW volume in that zone (we do NOT get to around the 72k volume high) AND we break below the low at $12.02. Wait for a double bottom low on the break, with low volume to enter into a 12/16 CALL with $12.50 or $12 strike and look for price to reverse back into the $13 range before we get a very strong bearish rally.

-IF we see volume at or above the key 72-74k range in that last green bullish order block, this is very bullish! Wait for price to retrace right below the LOW of the candle structure that produced the low right BEFORE the high volume candle on the 1 minute, and enter a CALL position (with same details as above), but we will be seeking price to go above $13.27 in this scenario.
Comment:
Do note that I will be selling my CALL options first thing in the morning that I was in from the $12.20 price yesterday. I expect it to be at or near the money at market open, and will be quickly going into PUT options to catch the move back down below $12.15.

FROM THERE I WILL WAIT FOR PRICE ACTION AND VOLUME TO TELL ME WHAT WILL HAPPEN!
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