2H Growth & Acquisition Friendly (PT: $9.00)

Second half of the year has already been projected by various telecom companies and suppliers to be strong and accelerated compared to the first half. Seasonally weak Q1 numbers came in almost across the board. However, NPTN managed to not do as badly as most had anticipated, hence the growth in March fueled by positive sentiment that momentum was returning.

NPTN has repeatedly shown that it will dip under its overall trend lines (red+yellow) and return fiercely for some gains. It will take a stable, forward looking market with growth and momentum to get it back to $9. However, in the short term, I can easily see it retracing back up towards $7.50 before some profits are taken and the price drops back around $6.50. NPTN guided for a solid Q2, though the ZTE news may have a bit of a negative effect on it. However, that news has probably been baked into the current price, which is in part why it's dropped to where it is now. Ignore the Huawei noise, as China talks are at least still neutral, but moving forward again with additional talks and likely more extensions for negotiations.

Q3 guidance should remain the same, specifically focused on getting margins up with flat revenue compared to Q2. Anything above that, and we've got a rocket that will easily coast to $8 I think. Sales and growth into its strongest areas of 400G and 600G continue, with Verizon and others quickly deploying and growing 5G capabilities that NPTN participates in. Additionally, now that LITE has chosen to buy OCLR, the speculation that NPTN could be acquired escalated, so owning a piece of NPTN has additional leverage.
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