NQ/QQQ Weekend Levels (Oct10-14)
Nasdaq closed up 0.60% after trading in a range of 814 points. The NQ dropped below the June 16th low to start the week then rallied 6% in two days, consolidated for two days and then dumped almost 4% on Friday after a stronger than expected employment report. Price will start the week again right back at the June 16th low. The market will now await CPI data on Thursday which will likely determine whether the market finally finds a base or continues lower. Below are some point I am considering.
• Coming off immensely volatile week with 6% round trip
• Price reacted sharply off the 21 ema last week making it a key technical level going forward.
• CPI data out Thursday
• Price at key support June 16th low & recent Oct 3rd low
• 2020 peak in play to the downside on a break of the recent low
• Inflation and interest rates remain key market drivers
• Increasing risk of outlier event eg. Major Ukraine war escalation
• Bank earnings start at the end of the week
• Bullish period for the Nasdaq begins Oct 9th
• Explosive move in either direction possible
WEEKLY EVENTS
Monday Fed Head Brainard & Evens Speak,
Tuesday Fed Heads Hawker & Mester Speak + OPEC report
Wednesday US PPI, Fed heads Kashkari & Barr speack + FOMC Meeting Minutes
Thursday US Initial Jobless Claims, EIA Crude Inventories & US CPI Data
Friday US Retail Sales & University of MIch. Sentiment
NOTABLE EARNINGS
Monday Nothing Notable
Tuesday PEP
Wednesday Nothing Notable
Thursday BLK, DAL, DPZ, FAST, PGR, TSM, WBA
Friday C, JPM, MS, USB, UNH WFC
BULLISH NOTES
Earning season begins soon
Potential positive reaction to CPI
Market heavily short setups another bear rally
Potential double bottom from recent lows
Price closed the week positive and above June 16th low
BEARISH NOTES
Harsh reversal last week was very bearish
Potential negative reaction to CPI
Potential global shock event
Negative sentiment is very high = self fulfilling prophesy syndrome
2020 peak may be price magnet
Potential negative reaction to earning
Price back below 9/21/55 emas
• Coming off immensely volatile week with 6% round trip
• Price reacted sharply off the 21 ema last week making it a key technical level going forward.
• CPI data out Thursday
• Price at key support June 16th low & recent Oct 3rd low
• 2020 peak in play to the downside on a break of the recent low
• Inflation and interest rates remain key market drivers
• Increasing risk of outlier event eg. Major Ukraine war escalation
• Bank earnings start at the end of the week
• Bullish period for the Nasdaq begins Oct 9th
• Explosive move in either direction possible
WEEKLY EVENTS
Monday Fed Head Brainard & Evens Speak,
Tuesday Fed Heads Hawker & Mester Speak + OPEC report
Wednesday US PPI, Fed heads Kashkari & Barr speack + FOMC Meeting Minutes
Thursday US Initial Jobless Claims, EIA Crude Inventories & US CPI Data
Friday US Retail Sales & University of MIch. Sentiment
NOTABLE EARNINGS
Monday Nothing Notable
Tuesday PEP
Wednesday Nothing Notable
Thursday BLK, DAL, DPZ, FAST, PGR, TSM, WBA
Friday C, JPM, MS, USB, UNH WFC
BULLISH NOTES
Earning season begins soon
Potential positive reaction to CPI
Market heavily short setups another bear rally
Potential double bottom from recent lows
Price closed the week positive and above June 16th low
BEARISH NOTES
Harsh reversal last week was very bearish
Potential negative reaction to CPI
Potential global shock event
Negative sentiment is very high = self fulfilling prophesy syndrome
2020 peak may be price magnet
Potential negative reaction to earning
Price back below 9/21/55 emas
Comment:
Could not hold the June 16th low this morning. Now coming in the the Oct low. Watching the 1.13 Fib X level. If the 1.13 break a much deeper drop is possible.
Comment:
Tuesday morning look on the 30M chart. Touched the Oct low yesterday. Watching for a short term bounce. Needs to get above the June low first. Still an unfilled gap from the cash session above that could be a target. Obviously the recent low is also an important level.
Comment:
Sold off immediately down tot he 1.13 Fib X. This is a key level as I have mentioned above. If it holds we should see a decent bounce. If it break expect a move down to the 1.272 Fib X and potentially a flush to the 2020 Peak.
Comment:
Decent 240 point bounce off the 1.13 Fib X, but was rejected at the previous day's close. Price has now reversed back to the 1.13. Re-tests like this are common, but If price fails to double bottom here a panic sell off is possible going into or after the PPI/CPI data the next few days.
Comment:
Working the Oct 3rd low zone. 1.13 Fib X still key level . NQ had the chance to dump yesterday but didn't which is notable. Keeping it simple. Below the 1.13 I'm bearish. Above I'm bullish. Keep in mind the the market is stretched to the downside making a viscous snap back move possible.
Comment:
CPI hot. Price dumped through 1.13 Fib X to the next support zone in 1 second. This area should provide support for at least a bounce. If it fails quickly panic selling is a high probability. If panic ensues remember that technical levels are useless and you must use pure price action.
Comment:
Gave us the bounce. About 200+ pts from the low now. Coming back into the 1.13 Fib X which is likely to be resistance. Will focus on shorts again for a potential retest of the lows. If it goes red to green on the day it would be very bullish and all shorts would be off the table.
Comment:
Massive intra day reversal candle. Had expected price to retest the low or at least pull back from the 10800 but it blew right through. Feels like some big shorts covering or and algo kicking in buys. Very rare not to come back and probe the lows but we will see. Trend continuation would take it up to the 21 ema.
