April Fools Day is right around the corner.
Anyone foolish enough to think NQ, on this date, will close over 15,200? Call me foolish but I have a high conviction this price point will be met by this date. Should this happen momentum or the lagging span (within the rules of Ichimoku) will be above price on the weekly close which could create a squeeze the weeks following to bring QQQ/NQ to new ATH's by May.
From a charting perspective, I have noticed what appears to be an expanding triangle that began the week of Aug 16, 2021. Expanding triangles have a 5 pattern swing to them. My chart above shows us to be on leg 4 of the pattern which typically ends with a violent swing up and ends at 5. From a Fib Sequencing perspective, leg 0-1 lasted 3 weeks, leg 2-3 lasted 5 weeks and I anticipate leg 4-5 lasting 8 weeks.
From a time perspective I'm targeting next week as a possible bottom on NQ as follows:
1. If you use Fib Sequencing, March 16th is Day 55 from the NQ double top reversal candle made on Dec 28th 2021. Days 21 & 34 within this sequencing produced reversals but those reversals have shown to have failed so now I'm looking for day 55 (or around this date) to possibly set up a signal.
2. The Covid crash bottomed out on week 6. Next week is week 12 from the NQ Double Top made the week of Dec 27th. Doubling the "time" of the Covid crash has symmetry.
Because I believe "time" to be the most important factor I am sitting on my hands this week observing price and how we close out weeks end. I do believe price on the NQ could dip a little below 12K but I'm not counting on this happening, my target on NQ low right now is 12,235. IMO I believe price needs to stay "just above" the 50% retracement from the Covid low to make a new ATH in May. In addition, I believe we must "close" price on the weekly ABOVE my non-horizontal dark pink lower line...a closing below this line will negate my thesis. Wicks are okay.
The key for this to play out is that we need to get the lagging span/momentum back above price on the weekly and April Fools just seems like the perfect day to give the bears the middle finger.
Anyone foolish enough to think NQ, on this date, will close over 15,200? Call me foolish but I have a high conviction this price point will be met by this date. Should this happen momentum or the lagging span (within the rules of Ichimoku) will be above price on the weekly close which could create a squeeze the weeks following to bring QQQ/NQ to new ATH's by May.
From a charting perspective, I have noticed what appears to be an expanding triangle that began the week of Aug 16, 2021. Expanding triangles have a 5 pattern swing to them. My chart above shows us to be on leg 4 of the pattern which typically ends with a violent swing up and ends at 5. From a Fib Sequencing perspective, leg 0-1 lasted 3 weeks, leg 2-3 lasted 5 weeks and I anticipate leg 4-5 lasting 8 weeks.
From a time perspective I'm targeting next week as a possible bottom on NQ as follows:
1. If you use Fib Sequencing, March 16th is Day 55 from the NQ double top reversal candle made on Dec 28th 2021. Days 21 & 34 within this sequencing produced reversals but those reversals have shown to have failed so now I'm looking for day 55 (or around this date) to possibly set up a signal.
2. The Covid crash bottomed out on week 6. Next week is week 12 from the NQ Double Top made the week of Dec 27th. Doubling the "time" of the Covid crash has symmetry.
Because I believe "time" to be the most important factor I am sitting on my hands this week observing price and how we close out weeks end. I do believe price on the NQ could dip a little below 12K but I'm not counting on this happening, my target on NQ low right now is 12,235. IMO I believe price needs to stay "just above" the 50% retracement from the Covid low to make a new ATH in May. In addition, I believe we must "close" price on the weekly ABOVE my non-horizontal dark pink lower line...a closing below this line will negate my thesis. Wicks are okay.
The key for this to play out is that we need to get the lagging span/momentum back above price on the weekly and April Fools just seems like the perfect day to give the bears the middle finger.
Comment:
I also like the symmetry of the two pink lines if it plays out...
Comment:
We also do NOT want the momentum/lagging span (my purple line) to close INSIDE the cloud on the weekly. It's ok for it to dip into the cloud during the week but let's not close in it.
Comment:
This is playing out just as I imagined...looking to see a flush below the Feb 24th lows before I start to think about a buy. My buy zone will be formed by watching the VXN...targeting VXN between 50-55 this week.
Comment:
If this reversal is "it" then this is how the daily should trade for a while
Comment:
The ES is the only index that did not complete the death cross so it's very important for all indexes to remain in "up" mode...if the ES starts to fail the death cross will happen quickly therefore the SL set for this set up should be 13,698. It should NOT go back to retest/touch the daily Tenkan Sen line if we have the same set up as the above chart..(see the circled area)
Comment:
Comment:
Your SL should be updated daily since that thin red line will move up tomorrow, etc.
Comment:
IMO...the bearish crossing of the 55EMA on the 2hr is not a good sign. Make sure you have updated your SL if you are following this set-up. It should be the Tenkan Sen line.
Comment:
The daily Tenkan Sen line is 14,726...this is where your SL should be located. Doesn't mean we can't hit and bounce off this line and go back up to re-test Wednesday's high but it means the set up I proposed in this idea is not the same as 0-1 & 2-3. This will be my last post on this idea.