Friday I was sitting Long with 18 contracts and closed at 11951, the final hour 200 point runner came next (reason I was pretty pissed). The 2 channels will provide the path higher or lower. The likely next move may be higher as the institutions will be in the distribution mode, after accumulating shares all the way lower since the recent high (12300). This may change near the top of recent high. The Friday drop test to 10855 was bought (Thursday and Friday) and the level has held. Box is range, yellows are KL's to watch/target. O/N PA will most likely go back to primarily lifting and the push pull during the Open will most likely be less to over. Dips will most likely be bought and should be considered pull backs. Less scalping and look for runners, stalls will pull back as tests. Should this be early, follow the lower channel lower and expect slow struggling down days. We are at the bottom of the start of the 4 day rally that propped the NAZ up, only to be followed by the 35 day decline. The 35 day decline can be erased in much less time (usually the case).
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Blue is U Turn TL
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IDS50/20 with KL's and signals. Long above white and Shot below red. Move to IDS in coming days should push pull slow/stop.
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IDS20, Friday you can see the Stoch low up/down with the PA. The white arrows show the hook at 11950 that turned the NAZ. These are the great and usually fake you out after 15-20 yo yo's. IDS20 is good for scalping, make sure you do not act so quickly as I did on Friday to miss the run. Assume nothing or use IDS50 as main or backup.
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Retracement Time example: The NAZ dropped for 22 hours and retraced 100% in 2 hours. This is normal and may be on the way over the next less then 35 days.
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View of IDS25 with O/N off. 1st shaded color is 1st 15M, 2nd color 2nd 15m, black Dead Zone and blue is final hour. Wait 1st 15M, line up IDS and trade. Back test and you will see typically daily 1 way patterns after 1st 30m. IDS25 would be a decent setting for heavier volume week.
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IDS50 2 week Range. Keep track of prior 2 week PA and KL's. Failure to lift, Short. Shorts that stall, Long. Play the edges of the range. Something I picked up form a new book. The 1 system and 1 index seems to be how most of the successful trader's focus and develop. Expanding the view is my point here.
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The Mental Game of Trading book, half way through. Very interesting and I fall into to Angry Trader slot when in trouble. In this state we loose all thought process and the rage builds as the market moves against you/your direction. The other note would be that Intraday Traders have the most challenging job on earth. Master your skills, adapt to cycle changes, keep your cool on the intraday timeframe and you can always switch to swing or longer timeframe ((which is easier, by far). Great book, I highly recommend it and it feels like he is talking directly to you and all your issues (we all have issues that need work.)
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O/N, May bounce off lower KL and needs to get back above 11040.
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11940 was major resistance on Friday, Look for 940 to hold for bounce. If not may go lower. Will check back in morning. NAZ setting up nice range for a bounce or PA.
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Asia turn around and 940 hold should give this, otherwise we go lower by Open.
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NAZ above 11040, may retest
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Look for pull back to 11100 under 11140
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Range for Open Session
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IDS50 KL's, Prop in O/N is back and do not short until near the Open.
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11140 PB Scalp, Yellow is Turn, White Signal and Blue is target and potential reverse trade.
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IDS25 today, match up the PA and lower indicator arrows for trade direction
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Above Mid Level on Stoch is Long and a break would signal a change or Strong Long Set Up. Like at KL 10951
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Watch the Diag TL, NAZ Killer
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Relax, 200 point O/N range and NAZ has moved to Mid. Mentioned earlier, the wide range will be played. Diag TL needs to be passed for Long side to play out.
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NAZ in Range for Open, Under O/N high for 2nd time. Pump Dump amy be in mix should NAZ not stay above Diag TL.
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I will be back after 1st15M, NAZ may drop near 11070 ish prior to next big move.
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11070 KL to 11167 KL and that is it, so far.
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Was looking Long because of O/N, Now looking Short
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Same old Pump/Dump from O/N to Open. MOP is 11070 to 11167
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Long at 10858, Back to 10951, then 10993. Stalling at 10870 SL at 10850
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Scalped long and reload Edge trade
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Angry trade.
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O/N PA will come back Here, needs to pass 10900.
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10951 is target.
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MOP up is slowing. Bounce should follow.
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10880 bounce
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10936 next
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Bounce here with stop below.
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Long above 10880, may retest.
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Careful on Longs, today is an outside day reversal.
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Scalping is still preferred. Unless you caught the Short from O/N prop job. Nothing new so far.
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Low target is 10818 on fall.
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NAZ just has Zero Strength and now DOW is falling again. Still looking like Holiday Price Action.
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Choppy sliver trades. Head Fake jerks and the whole gambit of junk. Best to just trade O/N and go Long and Short the Open, just like most of last year.
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Now it runs, crazy.
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NAZ just ran 90 points for no reason, 10951 KL may be a strong Short with NAZ under.
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Still under Diag TL, Long only above and well above.
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IDS25 (right), Scalp at arrows on Longs.
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10991 is bottom of 1st 30m, NAZ may hit and then drop.
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Under 10951 look Short and watch the Ticks. 10870 pop to 10963 may be a Short Stop clean out. This may flip just like last Thursday. Watch Head Fake Long near 10951. NAZ hit 10928 5 times and has held. Temping look or set up short.
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10961 is under recent peak, needs to pass and hit 10993.
Trade closed manually:
Major stall on lift, may see drop by close or not. Ticks are nothing great. However a big move is on the way. Done here and Long in the O/N is most likely the play
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Under 10940 for NAZ may not be so good, look at yellow arrows. Above may be better.
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Trade near 10855 or 11167, anything else is toss up. For now I see no difference in the intraday PA. 10951 did drop to 10920, Long Trap for now. NAZ still under Diag TL, The NAZ Killer.