NAZ will need some help from pre open (Overnight) and Holiday (Monday) closed markets low volume price action next week. The move should be to upside 1st and then lower. Mian channel is the 17000-16450 with 2nd channel of 16900-17500. Arrows are potential plays, yellow dots with lines are TLX's (trend line cross) and orange boxes are FA's (failed auction zones). Under 17000 may head retest ML of channel (mid level 16740), this may be after the usual Sunday-Monday Prop Lift up is attempted. Should the Prop Lift not happen or stall, look for ML as target on drop. The 4 HR chart goes back about a month and may be the PA range for next month or so.
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3 days at the same price is very odd. I know it is a Holiday today, Monday but still pretty odd and the lack of any conviction either way may be a negative at any stall out (after Monday into Tuesday Prop up tp0 Pump/Dump).
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1/15, 1st O/N move to lower Channel. Look for 16830-50 and above to move back up some. Open may redirect or have some retest lower selling pressure.
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Top Channel retest and no pass, look Short
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Sideways Snail PA til net move at 17000-025
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Got to 17035 and dropped, just a Long Trap for now.
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TLX 857 is Long above and Short below on retest. Looks like Dead zone Top MOP, Back later.
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NAZ back under 16970, watch the level.
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No strength NAZ (no O/N Rig or Dead Zone Rig) may head south to Box below. Sideways for 3-4 days.
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NAZ flat and back to 970 level, just a huge coincidence or not.
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1/17 Update, Cross channel zones and Short from Top channel yesterday sent it back lower. Still no strength so watch for games and stall outs.
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Tuesday was another Outside Day Reversal FYI. Just keep in mind as these usually do not show up without actually causing a train wreck.
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Lower Range today will be 720-785 passed TLX 859, Needs to pass TLX and stay under. Good luck and going private.
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725 hit, May see lift at 16725
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Lift target is 16800 and no lift can drop another 200
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Lower channel hit and may lift some,
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16676 TLX may redirect up during dead zone
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If you look the moves since O/N high drop equal 550 points on major moves. This is rather large for recent days but getting back to normal. NAZ may be setting up the lower direction change move should BTD/FOMO's bail.
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Mid day 1/17, 16750 is KL and under this may drop for a few days.
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Under 16750 so watch out, will update this weekly post by tomorrow.
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TLX to TLX has been the moves so far this week and NAZ gets the much needed O/N Prop lift, fade this on any stall out. FA Zone at 16960 and 16860-40 are KL's for retest.
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Look Short under 17061 TLX for drop back lower and pass above is Long to the Moon as BTD/FOMO's are back. Top of Channel is 17500 and that may be by Monday Close target with Prop Friday through Monday Close play, been the pattern. Just watch TLX reaction and Push/Pull should it show up and it should not for a while as machines are slow to change direction.
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NAZ still in O/N Range so needs to pop out and stay above for strong long
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Starting to look like a Pump/Dump, will check back later
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The tricky thing about the range over past few days is the current move in O/N last night. This will create a big move out of here to the downside should the NAZ not stay above 16800-900. The O/N just pushed the index to a tricky level to go Long or Short, let this play out some and the Dead Zone may get whippy.
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NAZ is above TLX 17060, look for float higher and potential Snap drop. 10:30-12 CT will have some news releases that can be a sucker punch to the O/N Prop and weak PA of Reg Session today. Pump/Dump caution, Long with typical Dead Zone, Friday to Monday typical lift is next play should NAZ not drop.
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11:15 am ct, sucker punch on que as NAZ drops 100 points, under 17061 TLX and O/N High 17041. Long above 17940 and FA hit/hold and Short below.
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Looks like the TLX 17096 was upper end and TZ should be 17060-096. Anyway, the O/N lift is huge for the NAZ as the Reg Session is Dumping any lift. This may turn the Friday to Monday or Tuesday usual Prop Rally off and have NAZ start decline to lower end of the Channel (16450). This would be a great O/N pump/dump to long trap set up.
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Not surprised at al, NAZ back in the Turn Zone of 2 TLX's and major drop here should the NAZ stay under TLX 17096 or come back under, LONG above and a stay above.
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IDS20 View
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TLX 17096 may be a retest and drop like as the lower indicator is does show an air pocket some. No drop here, Trail Long into Close as the O/N should prop up into Open of Friday. This would then Prop Sunday to Monday. This is why the Drop here could be big should all these typical Long moves not play out.
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At Close NAZ is at 17105 and will be pinned up through the O/N on loooow volume. this will not drop until Open on Friday for drop test. Then the drop test will show next move. BTD/FOMO Forever (or through Friday into Monday Open).
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Tuesday Drop to Wednesday low to Thursday high. White arrow is next range above 16940.
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1/19, Like I said up in the O/N. Circles are O/M lifts and usually set up a Pump/Dump. Since today is Friday, this may run until Monday and through Monday into Tuesday.
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17250 has divergence look short for pull back
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Stopped, Typical Friday. This may run up to 17500 by Monday Close
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O/N rig pop just do most of the work and then the Friday Float up into Sunday/Monday lift sets up the SHORT on Tuesday's. Most of this was 2 O/N sessions and a Friday Dead Zone, volume is lower today. Closing Post, long side is too easy.
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Upper Target hit, Go Short ??? Maybe next week (Tuesday in the Open Drive)
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Drop Zones, every one of these FA's will get hit prior to next move higher.
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IDS20 View
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Upside indicators, the Long call through Friday was accurate, just can't hang on all the way. Do Not short until next week.
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Upside down indicators was what I meant to say. This happens more and more in past six months, usually has a snap drop that follows in a few days after. And these happen on Fridays 95% of the time (the upside down stuff)
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Next week, White Zone is range and sideways. Lower red is drop target zone at upper rejection. Need to see strong NON O/N moves on the way up for this be real. We still have not seen any Limit Down O/N Sessions (all of 2022-2023). We had 3-4 in 2020 with Covid 30 day drop.
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Last weeks forecast did hit some KL's and Targets. The chart below will show how the NAZ is moving in the opposite direction of prior 10YN correlation. Not sure why? May revert back, watch 10YN.
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1/21, Short under 17520 and Long above. May rotate around for next move.
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Looks like Monday O/N Pump/Dump into Open drop. KL 520 is key for next move.
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Today's Open Drive will be very key to the next move or direction change.
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Play entire O/N Range, Good Luck going Private.
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560-80 rejection may try 460
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KL 520 to O/N High, watch next move.
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O/N High dump to 460 should play out.
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520 rotation is next, next move to follow and 340-60 is in play under 520 and then under 460.
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Once again, O/N Lift with Open Sell off and Dead Zone will be next after 1st30-60M, most likely try up 1st.
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200/500 MA's are close do not trade here, next move on the way and no clear signal. You will know when ready.
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460 Hit and ML O/R is resistance for now, will retest in DZ.
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Hanging onto 17460 level like a life preserver, No strength on a Monday is not a good indicator for the week ahead, look Short as O/N tonight may be only push should it stay up until close, SHORT on Tuesday is the plan.
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BTD/FOMO not strong today. FA's are targets on drop to Mid Channel.
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Just watch as if the media starts saying "AI" the NAZ will rocket up. That is all it takes, that and the final 2 minutes of the Close and the O/N Prop play.
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YTD 30M Chart, look for drop since Monday did not lift (very unusual)
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1/23 NAZ ran 900 points Wed - Fri of last week and most was O/N. Big moves (in short period) usually retest 50% ish of move. BTD/FOMO all you want but use a STOP. I would feel better if most of move up was not during the O/N or Pre Open, feels a bit rigged after Friday Blast and Monday Stall.
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Looks like NAZ will try to hold up until O/N or near close to get to Overnight.
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Rigged
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NAZ can only or usually lifts on Friday's, Monday's and the Overnight. Other than that sell to snail lifts.
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sideways to the close, thought that would be the deal. Will not leave O/R, no power and not sure if has any strength to get higher? May see a fake pop/drop between today and tomorrow. BTD/FOMO until the Open tomorrow.
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So predictable, sideways and then move up near close and O/N, just games (and they continue to work). Just keep your eyes on the FA's below.
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1/23 Private Post. Only real trade was Short at KL 17520 for drop, never got out of Open Range. www.tradingview.com/...d-NQ-Short-01-23-24/
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Been looking Short but calling strange Longs in odd trading zone times. The new QE is the constant lift in O/N while we sleep. Sideways all day yesterday and then up over 100 in afterhours. 1HR YTD with some divergence showing, this can pop or create an Air Pocket drop. Since the Open Drive/Range usually sells off 1st, we may sell that drop and this lift would be just another pump/dump or drop offset. The orange zones are drop targets and failed auctions.
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17765 Divergence still on lift, watch here
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17700 to 765 may be stop clean out. Just remember the buyers buy from seller and sometimes sets up the counter move as the seller are set and buyers are trapped.
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Back in the channel ?
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Watch Hook Short on IDS20
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Back to top and sideway or drop
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1st retest
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White verticals are what to watch
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17660 to 17760 is range to watch and NAZ may start the decline out of range or hold and retest upper
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Stall out may test FA's below, just nee to have an O/N that does not go straight up
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If Short set up or Long Trap, last move up from O/N high is another MOP Up. This may continue until buying dries up. Bets moves are at PEAKS and VALLEY's, need to be brave or use a stop.
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IDS20 with triple top and stalling, may get through as the dead zone is 1 way, until it is not. Again, bigger risk is the O/N on the Long side.
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Under 760 is 1st key to short maybe happening
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On/N Top to 17800, another 100 point move. watch this pattern in either direction.
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Today looks weaker with move up, air pocket is developing , next half to day and we may see direction change. Back later, BTD/FOMO Forever.
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Any huge O/N lift is usually trick or head fake, lets see how this day finishes out. Still above O/N high and that is what they do, for as long as possible trying to get it to next O/N for more.
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Here we go, Circle is TLX and just follow the move and arrow.
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Who would go Short on a day like today? They got you thinking the other way with the O/N lift, it may work but NAZ is getting weaker and weaker and that is why it can only go up in O/N.
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I may be early but NAZ for 200-300 points lower is the idea, it will retrace back up and drop again, this will continue as the direction MAY change. Need to clean out FA's below prior to next leg up. Back by Close to see if final 5M is a rocket long trick.
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Just stupid PA, believe nothing
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Divergence update on 1 HR chart from earlier, good for 150 points if you got it.
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Above signal, spot the divergence and it will continue to run up and then pop the air pocket. This may hold and retrace up some.
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Nothing but O/N PA for gains here, as usual. So the close and O/N PA will be the next clue and next few days will be more up or retest lower and potential direction change to mid or lower channel.
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TLX