NAZ did not deliver the anticipated lift out of the Danger Zone, still in danger. Stalls will be sold in the Open after some O/N prop action. All dips have been bought, looking for some failure, profit taking and shorting. Bank earnings tomorrow may change the forecast or help the drop. Will update as we go.
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NAZ stayed in the Box Range, all day. Will need to break out. Looking to test lower range.
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NAZ needs to go below Prop move
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Bank earnings are expected to be bad with loan losses, savings balances shrinking and earnings dropping. May set negative tone into the day.
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After drop/pop dead zone lift, IDS20 showed the return of bearish push pull during the decline and selling in the final hour with a slight pop
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O/N will hit one 1st and then travel to 2nd. Most likely Upper 1st and sell off near Open.
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NAZ picked lower 1st, at 1475 now.
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Lower pivot slight bounce and one of the least overall O/N sessions with movement, in past few weeks. NAZ just needs to stub its toe and down it goes. Stalling after Open may be the toe stuber. Could be wrong, I have seen weak (running on fumes) PA rally for hundreds when the FOMO's & BTD's get excited so be patience.
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IDS50
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Under and a stay under 11480 would be the 1st Short sign to look for.
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Short PA developing
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11516 is yesterday Top 1st30M and Bottom is 11311. NAZ has been struggling near 516 and should Bank Earnings spook, the usually lower play is toward bottom 1st30M. Push Pull PA is showing up, again.
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IDS50/20 both looking Short, may see BTD's come in and wiggle the PA, as long as IDS shows Short we should be good for a 1 Way Runner providing Bank Earnings slightly spook the fragile.
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Trail it as may see a wiggle. Under 11480 is key
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11384 KL and 11311 only if NAZ stays under 11480 - 11516. The rally Long does not seem likely as an alternative
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11480 will be retested prior to deep drop.
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Watch the Diag TL, NAZ usually never can pass these
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Short to KL 11384, Long to 11480 and back under or Long above.
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NAZ still nowhere
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11524 is KL to watch.
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Jerky PA, stall in Dead Zone may see drop back to low.
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Strong Short below arrow. Strong Long On Hold.
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The key about trading is to be in front of the next move and not after, just a thought. NAZ -20 and you should be up 150 plus and climbing. Next move is coming so be in front and not behind. Jerky PA is usually not strong, but ride it for now.
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Don't you just love MR Retail and the mind set. 11480 break is what to look for.
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Below white line is the rollover, or not. May se Pull back and not short.
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2 options, this 11525 may be clean out and head fake. Need to watch, Orange TL on 30M is key.
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Much energy just to be even, not sure NAZ has much strength to get ahead or way ahead.
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Watch Upper Target for turn. May go sideways and clean out some stops prior to next move.
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2 days and no pass at upper target may see some profit taking ad such, just a thought. BTD up here. Friday, Long Weekend may be factors with a no pass or sideways stall out.
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Ehen PA looks like an EKG, Start looking short.
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Death Cross 30M candle, be in front Mr Retail and thank you very much. Test 1 or many.
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Back later the 40 point dip needs to be bought, that is what is being tested.
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Under 11480, now or never for next move lower. Do Not Buy THIS
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EKG is flat line from Death Cross, But Mr Retail this is not fair.
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Wait let me buy this, OK How far could it possibly go? Short it again at 11500-15. Just having fun but adding up points by being in front of moves, I hope you are too.
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Left is TL for Short set up and Right is Long set up. No pass at left, I add short under left arrow. Buy/Short and hold trading is not what I do and you miss moves/points. I really do not care if the Post Forecast is correct, I am playing the PA. NAZ is down 40 and I am up over 200. Moves happen between KL's, everyday. The points are greater than the daily net. NAZ needs to pass 503 or lower it goes with no hold at 480. Today is a narrow 125 point range, a bust out will happen today and I really do not care which way. The current Short trade, we got in front of and now the set up is for the 100-200 blast that will happen above 11518 or below 11450ish. BTD is not trading. and Dead Zone moves are just for fun.
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Still nowhere new, 11484 and below is short and above 11518 is Long. Short Target is 11400 and Long is 1151, then 11619. Looking Long and that is what they want to think, until stall out (if).
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EKG and now a spike, rejected at 11516. Games, take profit on trades at KL's. 480 to 516 and back and forth until break out.
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Yesterday did not have a sell off much, I may expect one today near close should high not be retested. Back in few hours.
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Major stop clean out, closing Long at 11558.
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Will look short under Orange TL.
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May be Double Top with no pass above high. Watch the Ticks here.
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Triple Top.
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Still above TL, may go to 619
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Mr Retail is buying.
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Strange not much movement.
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BTD did play out and Ticks look good.
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NAZ in Box and on TL.
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Leaving some on table, again. Final 10m may actually blast off, not looking short. Next week should TT hold.
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480 to 580 is 100 and typical NAZ move with turn usually next. For 100.
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NAZ Train and Ticks are UP.
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Surprised with Long Weekend, O/N may Rally further by Tuesday. 619 hit.
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In the Box
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Expressway to 11960 after 11480 retest.
Trade closed manually:
80 point blast in final hour and all positive points for the day. Better short opportunity for next week.
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Easy O/N Short, Strange Open PA and Buy on white cross and sell on Yellow line cross. Pretty easy after that fact, but reliable.
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Keep an eye on this for next week. NAZ will retest lower prior to next move. Today was only 50 points but much more in intraday action. This has been the pattern and I do not expect a 500 point runner (but may be next in express zone).
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This is interesting. Yellow arrow is Short and White is Long. Notice the yellow line and the PA at line on turns. I will track this from now. 11384, 11465 & 11598 are KL's.
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This chart removes the bar and noise and shows the flow of price (clearly)
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IDS30SEC/20Range Bar, this will help to limit noise
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So the NAZ is 20-40 points above 2 day range, I have below IDS50 with the following: 300 point range and 450 is Mid, NAZ has KL's at every 100 points. Look for some retests below, most likely 500-450
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KL's for next week. Since recent bottom the NAZ has produced the following:
800 point move (buy/Hold)
Trading major moves 2,198 / ave day 366 / ave trade 314
ave Long 382 / ave Short 224
800 point move (buy/Hold)
Trading major moves 2,198 / ave day 366 / ave trade 314
ave Long 382 / ave Short 224
Comment:
Short and Long Scalp, IDS20