NQ/QQQ Weekly Levels (May30-Jun2)
Here is a look at my weekly level. Price is already gapping high on NVDA news following the long weekend. Very euphoric price action so technicals are less reliable so be mindful that move can get over done in either direction in this scenario.
SUMMARY
• Nasdaq posted a 3.80% gain last week after trading in a range of 785 points.
• NQ made explosive move through the Aug 16th pivot resistance at 14067.
• Key technical levels have been ignored pointing to panic buying/short covering.
• The Bearish Harmonic pattern has been negated by close above Aug 16th high, and 1.13 Fib X has been hit.
• Price closed at the higher time frame 618 Fib RT on Friday.
• If price holds the 618 Fib my trend bias will flip form Neutral to Bullish
• The Aug 16th high (14067) is now first support.
• 1.13 Fib extension at 14589 is first upside target and resistance.
• Strongest sectors to close the week were XLK, XLY & XLC. Weakest was XLU, XLP, XLV & XLB
• Despite the strong rally only the XLK, XLY & XLC closed the week green.
• Currently rally very concentrated in the MEGA cap tech stocks
• Only 40% of stocks are above their 200 SMAs.
• A debt ceiling deal has been made but must be voted on.
• European markets and Japan are currently making new highs.
• Earnings this week include reports from AI, CRWD, LULU, AVGO, M, OKTA, BILI, DG
• Market already pricing in rate cuts.
• Biggest econ data this week is Non-Farm Payrolls on Friday
WEEKLY EVENTS
Monday US Market closed
Tuesday US CB consumer confidence & Fed’s Barkin Speaks
Wednesday Can GDP, US JOLTS, Fed’s Collins, Bowman, Harker & Jefferson speak
Thursday US Initial Jobless Claims, US Manufacturing PMI, US Construction Spending, EIA Crude & Fed’s Harker speaks
Friday US Non-Farm Payrolls & US Unemployment rate
NOTABLE EARNINGS
Monday US Markets closed
Tuesday HPE, HPQ
Wednesday AAP, AI, CHWY, CRM, CRWD, OKTA, PSTG, VEEV
Thursday ASAN, AVGO, BILI, DELL, DG, HRL, LULU, M, ZS, VMW
Friday Nothing Notable
BULLISH NOTES
NQ broke through the Aug 16th Pivot
EMAs & SMAs are stacked
Potential break above HTF 618 Fib RT = Trend change to Bullish
Aggressive sectors outperforming defensive sectors
Potentially positive reaction to Non-Farm Payrolls
European markets are making new highs
Debt ceiling resolution has been made in principle
Rate pause/cut hopes
Continued panic buying & Short covering
BEARISH NOTES
Stoch 5.1 is Overbought
Daily RSI is Overbought
Potential hard reversal at the 1.13 Fib X
Potential negative reaction to Non-Farm Payrolls
Service & wage inflation is persistent
Potential shock event (more bank failures)
Debt ceiling agreement fail to pass congress
Feb Head start talking rate hikes again
Potential spike in yield & USD
SUMMARY
• Nasdaq posted a 3.80% gain last week after trading in a range of 785 points.
• NQ made explosive move through the Aug 16th pivot resistance at 14067.
• Key technical levels have been ignored pointing to panic buying/short covering.
• The Bearish Harmonic pattern has been negated by close above Aug 16th high, and 1.13 Fib X has been hit.
• Price closed at the higher time frame 618 Fib RT on Friday.
• If price holds the 618 Fib my trend bias will flip form Neutral to Bullish
• The Aug 16th high (14067) is now first support.
• 1.13 Fib extension at 14589 is first upside target and resistance.
• Strongest sectors to close the week were XLK, XLY & XLC. Weakest was XLU, XLP, XLV & XLB
• Despite the strong rally only the XLK, XLY & XLC closed the week green.
• Currently rally very concentrated in the MEGA cap tech stocks
• Only 40% of stocks are above their 200 SMAs.
• A debt ceiling deal has been made but must be voted on.
• European markets and Japan are currently making new highs.
• Earnings this week include reports from AI, CRWD, LULU, AVGO, M, OKTA, BILI, DG
• Market already pricing in rate cuts.
• Biggest econ data this week is Non-Farm Payrolls on Friday
WEEKLY EVENTS
Monday US Market closed
Tuesday US CB consumer confidence & Fed’s Barkin Speaks
Wednesday Can GDP, US JOLTS, Fed’s Collins, Bowman, Harker & Jefferson speak
Thursday US Initial Jobless Claims, US Manufacturing PMI, US Construction Spending, EIA Crude & Fed’s Harker speaks
Friday US Non-Farm Payrolls & US Unemployment rate
NOTABLE EARNINGS
Monday US Markets closed
Tuesday HPE, HPQ
Wednesday AAP, AI, CHWY, CRM, CRWD, OKTA, PSTG, VEEV
Thursday ASAN, AVGO, BILI, DELL, DG, HRL, LULU, M, ZS, VMW
Friday Nothing Notable
BULLISH NOTES
NQ broke through the Aug 16th Pivot
EMAs & SMAs are stacked
Potential break above HTF 618 Fib RT = Trend change to Bullish
Aggressive sectors outperforming defensive sectors
Potentially positive reaction to Non-Farm Payrolls
European markets are making new highs
Debt ceiling resolution has been made in principle
Rate pause/cut hopes
Continued panic buying & Short covering
BEARISH NOTES
Stoch 5.1 is Overbought
Daily RSI is Overbought
Potential hard reversal at the 1.13 Fib X
Potential negative reaction to Non-Farm Payrolls
Service & wage inflation is persistent
Potential shock event (more bank failures)
Debt ceiling agreement fail to pass congress
Feb Head start talking rate hikes again
Potential spike in yield & USD
Comment:
NQ has gapped above the higher time frame 618 Fib running right into the 1.13 Fib X. Very bullish if price holds the 618 and pushes through the 1.13 X. Next upside target would be the top of the red box. A sharp move back below the 618 fib would be very bearish with a potential move back to the breakout point at the Aug 16th high.
Comment:
$NQ_F pulled back fully to the 618 Fib overnight. If the level holds look for a retest of the 1.13 X level. If the 618 is broken to the downside look for a move back to the Aug 16th breakout point.
Comment:
$NQ_F The 618 Fib level held and we just had the re-test of 1.13 Fig X. So far met with resistance again. Above the 1.13 look for a move to the top of the box. If price fails and drops back below the 618 look for a move back to the Aug 16th breakout point.
Comment:
$NQ_F after a harsh 150 pt rejection price has recovered with a strong bounce. This sets up a potentially explosive move higher on a break of the pin bar. The reverse is true if price breaks the low of day now.
