Expect the Prop back up to/near yellow line, stall and drop to next lower target. I highly doubt that any lift up will hold after last weeks very strange and bazar climb up, with Friday's rejection. We talked about it all week, "NAZ being propped and looks like a drop offset". This has been going on all year and will continue. Expect the O/N's to lift and the Opens to drop. Box Top at 12850 is now strong resistance, look for a retest there over the next few days.
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On the flip side, I have been mentioning the fact that the NAZ has had ZERO limit down O/N sessions YTD during the Bear. This may be next and may need to show up to flush things out so the next bounce can take place from a solid base. So be careful if you go Long in O/N. I just can't believe this Bear has been so tame during the O/N and think this is the next big opportunity.
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IDS, So Friday when I was looking Long Retrace trade the continuation Short was setting up. The IDS upper will show this. Lesson is follow the system, even I struggle at times and it is my system.
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Chart above, notice the strong move higher at 9AM. The NAZ drifted lower for balance of the day (hard to trade the snail). Anyway, all week long and in previous weeks, the drops are weak and lifts are strong. This may change and go back to normal over the next few weeks. In other words, I like shorting because of the quick deep PA, this is very efficient and you do not need to ride the snail or inch worm. We have not seen that and it has been the other way around, this is odd.
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For those that use IDS, I wanted to share this. I have been testing and it seems to work for set ups. When the Stoch is at high/low line, consistently the NAZ will not go more than 30 points lower/higher than the Yellow line and set up a long/short trade. You can back test this and use for scalp trades throughout the day.
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Above, wait for NAZ to set up, place trade with 30 point stop and take profit at stall or a set range such as 20-30 points. Use multiple contracts on scalps. Friday the NAZ did not go back up mid day and generated an additional 150-200 points from 12780 level. All week the NAZ was dropping then retracing back up. Friday the 500 points came on a 1 way after the 12800 level.
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The chart below will show the 30 point channels extended and kept on the chart, this sis 50 IDS. The circle is the perfect mechanical 200 point head fake long or short set up. The short did play out at the 13200 level (which I mentioned hours prior). We will need to manage the next bigger move at the bottom of this decline and leaving the turning channels over multiple days, may help. If you travel far left on IDS 50 you can see how I though 12750 may be turn (was wrong) as the Danger Zone defenders never did show up and appeared to leave early on Friday. September 5th is a holiday so we will have two short weeks as this Friday, most may leave early and do the same (long weekend).
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The 200 point move happed in 5 minutes while the 400 point move away from 13000 took over 5 hours. With price based charts you see it based on price (not time), Point is that there was 400 points available in 25 minutes (13000 up and back) vs 5 hours. This happens every day and is where you should be pushing your game. I have a hard time with the slow moving grinders/decliners and I am looking for the efficient trade.
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The above chart is IDS 100 and the below is IDS 10, the horizontal channels did not change, you can see how the price action is (somewhat programmed/predictable). The use of higher/lower range bar settings will help with the your trade execution.
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This is an example of the Riggers at work. This is primarily what I am looking for and the time of Rig. These always fail and price eventually falls back through. You will not see this in a time based chart. Notice the time, the EU markets did not reflect anything that would correlate.
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Next 2 weeks, range of play in 2300 points. Use KL's until break out. QT reaction will show up in September should the Riggers manage to get the NAZ back up near top (O/N games, Dead Zone rallies, final 5 minute 200 point moves, etc.).
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NAZ opened in O/N and is at 1st KL 12458 ZONE. I do not expect that it will try for next lower 12076 tonight or tomorrow, but I cloud be wrong.
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Long scalp to 12475 from 12400
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NAZ was trying for 12375 and did not make it.
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Move stop to 12405
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NAZ popping from bottom of channel.
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12430 is support for pull back bounce, no bounce close long.
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Trail it, heading out.
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Long scalp target hit at 475, 450 seems to be good support. NAZ may drop to low or 12375 prior to Open as drop/test. Do not get too comfortable here.
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510 may be max lift here at 495, small weak chop. I have seen this type of PA just fly up for no reason, so there is that. You never know about things in pre open.
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Lower target hit from recent top
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You can see that once the Stoch is at lower and NAZ breaks yellow, there is a Scalp trade. The NAZ Never falls more than 30 points below yellow or Long Scalp.
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Just focus on the points and not being a fortune teller with physic powers.
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From the Short side. Once NAZ breaks line and Red bars, look short. More points in the nowhere channel than the proceeding Runner. The High probability channels actually happen more than the Runners.
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The above charts are IDS 20, the Holiday or O/N choice as slow moves and low volume. Switch to 27, 50 or 100 once the Open starts to eliminate the noise.
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Lets see, may be the Hook Short Open.
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NAZ goes Hook Long? watch 12580
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IDS was spot on, see what I was saying about fortune telling.
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IDS 27 on Left 100 on Right
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Wait for retest on Short
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Short likely, watch Ticks
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So much available. Add up points in channel and number of shots vs points in the runner with 1 shot. I like the multiple with more than betting on the 1 shot trade. You can do both and just use point profit from Channel. Execution skills will get better and better. Compare this to Hope Up strategy of the investor with 1 play.
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Retested, should be good.
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Notice the accurate preplanned channels, these are your targets. Do not let the NOISE confuse you, this got me on Friday.
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You are on your way, all technical these days.
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Hook short at 43 or another top retest.
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Now in the noise, 43 is KL.
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Stepping away, Dead Zone may return with Huge Lift? Stalling NAZ is Falling NAZ.
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NAZ testing bottom of 1st 30M.
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Channel to Channel.
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Noise buster, Divergence and Drop.
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Open just has more opinions, move volume and more points.
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Riggers will step in. Trail, watch 43.
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Bottom of 1st 30M rejected, stay short under.
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Sideways to lower noise.
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12375 is in play should NAZ not get passed 12480 to 520. Stepping out.
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Not expecting a magical lift, you never know so trail or place a stop.
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Diag TL is usually tough for the NAZ.
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NAZ may rotate around the Diag TL lower, usually does. Will most likely test Fib level again.
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Tradable channel is 12458 to 12520, if you are flat and want to add some points. Lifting NAZ can bust out, not saying out of day range just some movement. 58 is good support below.
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NAZ passes TL, just note that drops are moving 3x as fast as lifts. Not sure the long snail riggers can get it done today. Still noise to this point. Back to target trading.
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Missed this set up as I was flat and out. You can ride the whip or use the IDS as a points machine. Notice the less than 30 point pull back from signal.
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Short is retest failure near arrow or once red bars break line.
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Notice the wider than O/N (Open) channel that has developed. Staying inside my channels. Why many do not trade intraday, I do not know. Could be the execution thing and 2 way action.
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Daily range of 200 points, NAZ keeps going the Mid range. At some point it will retest high or low.
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This is a no trade zone, but it looks like going for High over lower next move. Not a Rec just a note, I do not trade in mid noise. Trade on edge once we get there.
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No short as NAZ did not stall, nice Long set up. Watch white arrow and Stoch Line. Look for half hook and go Long. NAZ will tray for 12700 Mid Channel on 30M. On Short, no hook and Stoch comes back down. Back to mid level, If above NAZ is going UP..
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On the Top Edge with Divergence. Short trade with Stop above is normal. Your call Target is mid level. May want to hold until near final hour as this can pop up. I am out until final hour.
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Edge trade back to mid level is ok for now.
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NAZ stuck between top/bottom of 1st 30M.
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Looks like program selling. Slow and steady.
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Divergence is developing. Short side is in favor. Left Stoch needs to drop. Lift was expected. May get through and just confuse things, this is how it is done. Then O/N rally and pre open drop.
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Needs tp pass 27
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27 passed, hang on.
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Pop from 27 is pure rigging place stop above to protect on loss.
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Whenever the real move should happen and the big decline is due, the NAZ get propped. This is the low volume that allows this.
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What we saw for two weeks is back. I am surprised. The other side is that these pops pull you out of your short then fly back lower to new lows, need to be target focused.
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Expect O/N Pops, late day huge rallies and strange moves. They will try and lift the index at all costs. Never buy at a peak or short at a valley.
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This is a Hook Long. Needs to keep climbing or fill fall back.
Trade closed manually:
I am out, expect the unexpected. Get your points in better stage of the day.
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20 Pop was a Short shake out and drop offset. I think the NAZ retest day lows in O/N.
Edge trading in opposite direction worked the best today.
Edge trading in opposite direction worked the best today.
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Unreal, 43 & 27 were KL'S.
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NAZ stayed in Channels