Adjusted the Range Box, NAZ has been at current level may times with a Hold and Bounce. Looking for final week of year bounce prior to Box Drop. This may not happen and may be a drop out of Box into next year. This is a guide and not a guarantee of actual events that will actually happen. Some followers seem to not understand this concept or method. If you have questions or do not understand this concept, please unfollow and move on to other TV Author's.
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So if the Forecast/Direction is wrong, we can change the trade to follow the Price Action. Sounds crazy but is actually fun and has been around for over 100 years. Stay tuned or tune out, if you are having a hard time understanding this information.
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2 Year View, New KL's below price
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Bounce play, should NAZ Pop to accumulate for next Drop.
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1st move, above 11050 (may drop to 11000) gets to 11180 for a Long Scalp. Back in morning.
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Scalp to 11163 for 100 point Scalp, drop or hold your call. Back in morning.
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Block the Noise and get the points, the Noise will build this week.
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IDS15 with KL's, Range is being established, GAP fill is likely near/after Open. If so, retest high of O/N should follow. The NOISE feeds off your plan, focus, attention, goals, mental health, basically all that is good or positive. You know that the NAZ will move up/down, stick to a plan and get the points.
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Potential play with Diag TL. This just in: Bloomberg has reported that good news is good news and bad news is bad news. This may help with the lift as these types of media BS things stoke the blind retail followers (FOMO's, BTD's, etc.). If not, we can short the stall. Crazy but that is allowed and the forecast just a guide until so.
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Friday IDS50 is left and IDS15 is O/N on right. 11040 is likely or expected and needed for a bounce. Notice the IDS50 11103 drop/reaction, this is OK and may turn into a Short or not. I have to type out each play as the NOISE will pop in with a "told you so" and shake you out of the Long trade at the best spot. All BS is connected and trying to shake you out at all times. If you shorted the stall, then you are working the plan. Pull backs are not Shorts but can be used to "get the points".
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Back after Open. Clock runs at 100 points, still seems to be the common range of point to point moves.
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11140, watch head fake Long. Typical drop set up play into Open Drop/Pop.
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Thank You, Love it.
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11140 Head Fake Long runs for 240. Look for the Bounce back.
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10920 Drop test held, needs to pass 11081.
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Long above blue TL and Short below.
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10980 Long to 11050, pass 11081 and Diag TL is Strong Long.
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NAZ should Pop just to confuse everyone some more as it runs higher. Tested Friday Low and held. Swing low to 10950 then up under 10980
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10950 swing low test, 933 is target to pass.
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Today is outside day reversal to Friday, place stop on long just in case 10950 - 20 dose not hold.
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Lower PA looks like a typical MOP Up of stops, could be wrong. Need to see how this plays out.
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Stepping away, NAZ needs to stay above 10916 for Long side to play out.
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10960 is Mid Range of lower Channel, good sign for Long side. Most PA is in upper half of Lower Channel. Drop to lower side and bouncing back up is good to see. Low Volume is tough as games can be played, will be this way all week. Any move higher above 10993 may take off with force and leave sellers behind. Again, use a stop just in case. Head fake Shorts are what to look for just like at 11140 Head Fake Long.
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Needs to Pop above 928, yellow left was Head Fake Short. This may be a Long Set up.
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11140 was head fake long, not short. It went short after head fake.
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NAZ above 10928
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Break of 10955 is now KL to Pass.
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10993 is target.
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KL to KL, lower sideways was most likely a MOP up for now. May retest 10922 in O/N or tomorrow.
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NAZ spent the entire day lower and would not drop, games. Buy dips above 10922 for Pop with SL under 922. Tesla due to Pop at 52 week low. Should see squeeze pop near 10880, 10993 1st and then 11060.
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NAZ closed above 10916, that may be all it needed to not sink more, watch the Prop Pop Rally attempt in O/N.
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Similar Outside Day Reversal, like our past 3 days. NAZ goes up in O/N, Drops hit support and gets a decent bounce.
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10870 - 10855 should be support. NAZ will continue to drift lower with other indexes, will most likely bounce for retest higher 11000 - 12000 range. At 10900 now.
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10950 is KL pass back up. They will most likely Prop it in O/N as the Open would be too difficult. Looking for Prop O/N session tonight.
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Circles are U Turn support, the O/N would be the logical Session. Main reason I am watching tonight.
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Going with 1st move today. NAZ above 10916 and Bottom of yesterday 1st 30M, leaves zone and comes back. Mentioned 950 as KL to pass, NAZ did try and was rejected at 11954, will try again.
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IDS Dual, NAZ trying to pass 50-55, if you are Long move SL to 10910
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NAZ moves have been primarily 1 way. Should NNAZ run today, keep that in mind as the 2 way action may not happen. NAZ retesting 925-15 now and if hold should bounce. Will be back near Open.
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Crude lower, 10YN yield is lower, Dollar is lower. Just need Tesla to bounce some and 11200 we go (pass of 955).
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Prior 3 days the Open would be a drop with no to some return. Looking to change the pattern today with move up at Open and retest higher. This would set up a better Short for next week/month. This is an Long Edge Trade and usually are higher probability, may wiggle some and keep a SL as there are no guarantees. Trading is not guaranteed or perfect.
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60 point O/N range 920 is Mid, NAZ at Mid. Narrow range could produce big move out of range. No pass near 955, back to support.
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Bounced off lower KL's and Hit 10993
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Open Drive or Institutional traders push NAZ up while Dead Zone Others try and play the Range. Just low volume and take profit at my targets.
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KL 10784 hold should pop to 10855
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820 will retest 784
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837 may see selling
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May be a capitulation type day. Up/Down/Up
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Needs to test and pass 10861
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55 and 62 hit
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Just games, NAZ getting ready to POP, today or tomorrow.
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May drop back to 61 for bounce.
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1st move today higher sold off, 984 Pop Long come back to settle on low. The decline was slow and without much force. The low volume sessions can whip back up for another test and may hold. Scalp Longs and get out until the drops turn. Shorting here may be overdone.
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IDS50 is looing like a Long is next move. Divergence with Stoch and Price, Close to Red Line, sitting on KL 784. Needs to pass 10805 - 10 for confirm on Long.
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Outside Day Reversal did play out as prior example above. Double Bottom on low could be support.
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10600, KL below should drop continue
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4HR view of current channel, TL's suggest lower or move to lower half of channel. NAZ is at Prop Zone start of 11/10, needs to hold.
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Range would be 2 yellow lines, NAZ will need to pass 920-50 zone.
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KL's for today, NAZ may drop back to 806 for bounce to 950 zone, pass gets to 11000 and no back to 874. Back after Open.
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NAZ tested 861, bottom yesterday 1st 30M, will try and pass, if so Top 1st 30m
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830 is good spot for Long Scalp back to 61
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830 Long Scalp got to 59, stall here or Open drop could look like this.
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100 Point O/N Range, NAZ usually will go back to MID by Open, should that not happen then today could be a good long day. Back at 9am CT.
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950 Hit watch 933 and may see 905 retest at any stall.
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4HR Update, 950 is TLX and pass to 11100 or direction change. Need to let sideways play out.
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Trail closely, just get the feeling as soon as it stalls, it will drop back some for a decent retest for next move. Long weekend, quarter end and year end. Mentioned yesterday NAZ was getting ready to POP. The 1st stall out will see a decent drop.
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11043 is tough resistance
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1st hour Open Drive is over and here come the Hackers, may take higher or lower. They will move this, stall will be lower and no stall will be higher.
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11975 retest is likely on stall.
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Next stall at KL 64 look short for Pull Back.
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Holding at 40, break should drop some.
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64 no pass goes to 40 then 20.
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at 11020, pass goes to KL 993
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11040 is tough
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NAZ at mid MOP
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No pass at 64 may go to 950
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Watch head fake at 64, under 40 goes lower
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NAZ at top of channel, may come back to mid. This could be a Prop offset no pass at 64.
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Long days are wider than Short days, makes no sense.
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Flat close, just not seeing the strength after Open Drive.
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IDS20, Buy at either white line with stop below on Long day. Take profit at KL stop. Long here at close, I am flat sine PA sucks.
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After today, SP is flat on week. Just seems fishy. Sell off likely to follow and usually does.
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NAZ on week, high was to the tick.
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11071 sells off, then the stink is real. Lets see.
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If you want, Short NAZ near 071 with stop just above. Final 5M may fall rather than lift. Just an idea, you may get stopped but the drop may be decent. Edge Trade and just an idea.
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Here is an IDS20 Short day with signals near a Red Line. I called head fake long at top of day. Did not take, was scalping long.
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Edge Trade reaction and the Ticks were actually positive. It is all Rigged.
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In O/N 11040 is KL to watch. Proper's with lift it above and it will come back under/near by Open.
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IDS White Lines look Long and Red Lines look Short
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Current Channel is path higher and TL is lower.
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I am out tonight, look for O/N to lift as the Riggers will win either way with long or short from higher high. World markets will play off US lift and the final day may start on an up note. The Open will be the real test as any lift could be sold off.
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No lift in World markets and the Stink on the Edge Trade went for 200 Points to KL 950. This is confirmation of Prop Offset (yesterday pop) or drop/test to KL 950 which will fuel a significant bounce. News prior to Open will move things and Open will continue or redirect. NAZ out of yesterday channel and watch the white TL. I would expect 950 to be retest at some point on lift or obviously drop. Trades at KL's in opposite direction is best method. IDS 50 is Short and IDS 20 is Long, conflict for now so hang tight. KL 11040 is still an issue and keep on eye on it.
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IDS20 O/N recap. The Edge trade short played well out of channel to KL 950. Stoch and 1st white line cross is 1st Long signal, 2nd white line is Long with stop behind and Target would be TL or prior peak (blue line). Since Stoch is above MID now, expect retest and PB's to shake out long. This is were you have to scalp in and out and rack up points until the NAZ takes out. This will be a channel that will develop (11010 and 10950) until break out. IDS50 was correct on with holding on the Long, 20 is better for scalping while you wait.
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10950 is level to watch today for Long blast, Blue TL shows the history and prior reactions. Should the direction not go up, expect a big drop.
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NAZ has not shown what type of day, 10976 is Yesterday Top 1st 30M and may rotate around that (which it is). Need to watch 950 reaction a few times.
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Strong Short Under 925 and Strong Long on Hold.
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10962 may pop a long scalp to mid mop.
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925 did hold, watch 950 960 level
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KL 905
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905 Drop and back to KL 925, needs to pass 950
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TL is blocking
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Today is challenging, you can see the programmed moves like to DB at 855. IDS 50 is Long and IDS 20 Flat. Watch push pull and the selling will come back, no push pull the NAZ will lift.
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Edge Trades are 11064 and 10855. These are the best if you get a 2nd chance, back later. Use 950 as Edge for now until pass.
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average peak to peak move is 60 points use for take profit, not expecting any runners today.
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Potential move, lets see
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White lift was inside Red drop and KL 950 would reject the weak lift, basis on call. let this play out.
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Now broke orange TL
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905 is Mid MOP, see the pattern every single day, after day after day after day. Groundhog Day with weak PA and games, Rigged. Long Trap is playing out.
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NAZ may turn at 930 and needs to pass 971. Bounce off 855 will do it and is most likely what is going on. Or we just take 1 way train lower.
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Key test NAZ at 930 now, pick a direction and let it rip. Back in few hours.
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905 to 950 is a weak lift. Any stall and is falling.
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5 hits at 50 and no pass, head fake or will pop through, needs to pass and retest from above. 930 did turn on weak lift, not great or worth the risk just yet.
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Head fake and back to 930, then 905
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Micro moves with no strength. May see a decent drop in final hour after all this noise. Like yesterday into O/N. Yesterday did not make any sense and today is usually what follows. A pass at 10971 will only change this.
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951 longs are most likely stuck, or will quickly get out soon. 951 is lower than 971. MOP is 950 to 850 with 905 Mid Mop.
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Noon Clean up and tank time. Next move should be it until Magic Pop, if any magic left. Sideways for 3 hours is not good or strength. Flat waiting on 971 or 905 break.
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IDS20, never go Long with circles in Stoch, go Long at arrow. You can short at Circle and cover at arrow.
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Need some Magic for Longs, it may just actually happen as long as NAZ stays in the MOP zone.
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Move at white arrow is fake, this may bounce and usually does. 905 short with stop at 910 with double contracts to cover to catch bounce. Target on short is 855, will lower stop as the NAZ drops.
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Stoch may go back to mid and drop again. Have to scalp the moves.
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951 Edge Trade would of been the best and usually is. Now back in Mid MOP and loaded to go up, may retest lower to 905 and bounce back to 951. Fake move was just a test or Long stop clean out on all the 951 Longs.
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Back in final hour, target is 10971 or 10855, NAZ is mid Zone. With that move, Final Hour may actually Pop now.
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Now 928 is Edge, 928 is lower than 956 and 971
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10817 is lower MAX drop, FYI should no pop happen.
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Weak Whites inside Reds, watch the Long in here.
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NAZ may break 951 and try for 10971, No pass at 971, it may fall back.
Trade closed manually:
Like I said earlier, not seeing a runner and scalp 60 point moves. NAZ has stayed in a 50-60 range since the Open. Closing Now at 10951 as the drop is most likely next.
Have a great New Year.
Have a great New Year.
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The stop clean out produced the POP, should of seen it coming, just got tired.
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Magically the NAZ is flat on the week, Rigged to shake you out.
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Another thing to watch is the intraday moves, NAZ averages 300-500 points a day of movement. The final move gave it the 200 points to make it basically 400 for the day. Down then up, if not 1 way 400 it will go 2 way. Does not usually happen and was looking 1 way.
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Should be back to normal next week with heavy volume and better price action. The analyst are calling for a terrible 1st quarter, so get ready for the opposite. They are usually wrong and live in the future with very little actual specifics with timing of calls. Left part off the runner on the table. The only Open Runner of the day. Never again.
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Man 930 has a rocket in up direction, damn. Anyway, review the Trading Time Zone post (TTZ's), this is so typical. I strongly think we are going back to O/N propping next year, we still have not seen a huge limit down O/N session this 12 month Bear (and we won't at this point). Games are on and here to stay.
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Pissed
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Couple good books I just picked up:
The Market Makers Matrix, Christopher
The Mental Game of Trading, Tendler
I read the 1st one and on the 2nd. These will help with things like today. KL's are the best and trade near these. The mental side is all on us, this is our biggest obstacle and getting the 2 sides of our brains on the same page is the key to peaceful trading.
Pissed.
The Market Makers Matrix, Christopher
The Mental Game of Trading, Tendler
I read the 1st one and on the 2nd. These will help with things like today. KL's are the best and trade near these. The mental side is all on us, this is our biggest obstacle and getting the 2 sides of our brains on the same page is the key to peaceful trading.
Pissed.