Historical information can be helpful when projecting probabilities.
- The focus is with preceding small grinder days (with, odd price action) and the following PA after the run.
1) October of 2019 ran for 92 daily bars & 31% Gain. Most of which were small nibble days (Grinders).
2) COVID, Feb/Mar 2020 ran 23 daily bars & 32% Loss. Many Limit down Futures (overnight) and big down Open Session days.
3) July of 2020 ran for 25 daily bars & 22% Gain. Most of which were small nibble days (grinders).
4) September of 2020 ran 15 daily bars & 15% Loss.
5) May of 2021 ran for 36 daily bars & 14% Gain, again most Grinders. (Sell in May and Go Away, is not working).
6) July of 2021, we shall see.
The point is that the Grinder Type days will add up big gains ( over time & how long, ?? ) and usually lead to a big or bigger decline that will not resemble the Grinder, at all.
Buy the dip's of Grinder days (best play) and short post Grinder declining days. It is hard to NOT want to short these tiny narrow days. Better to wait and just buy dip's until big down moves show up.
We are due for some (big down moves), the question is when? Look at the end of 2019, the run was for 92 sessions and we are at 36 as of 7/2/21.
I hope this helps, I personally struggle with wanting to short when not the best move. Grinders are not good to short, better buy dip.
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The Grinder run of multiple weak days, gives way for the correction to near previous Grinder top.
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