Yesterday, the March PPI data was released before the market opened at 8:30 am. Producer price inflation unexpectedly slides M/M in March. March Producer Price Index: -0.5% vs. +0.1% consensus and 0.0% in February (revised from -0.1%). The slump came as the index for final demand fell 0.5%, driven by a 1.0% decrease in prices for final demand goods after a 11.7% drop in prices for gasoline. Final demand services index fell 0.3%, marking the largest decline since April 2020, led by a 7.3% decrease in margins for machinery and vehicle wholesaling. On a year-over-year basis, PPI rose 2.7% vs. +3.0% expected and +4.9% prior (revised from +4.6%).Core PPI: -0.1% vs. +0.3% expected and +0.2% prior.+3.4% Y/Y vs. +3.4% expected and +4.8% prior (revised from +4.4%). The index for final demand less foods, energy, and trade services inched up 0.1% from a month ago and 3.6% Y/Y.
Boosted by the positive PPI data, NDX opened high and continued to rise throughout the day, closing with a large bullish candle. Currently, the daily chart still shows a range-bound market.
Looking at the one hour chart, NASDAQ 100 Futures reached the upper boundary of the range-bound market. Although there was a breakthrough yesterday, the momentum was not strong enough, and the price returned to the range. There is still significant selling pressure above.
Today, retail sales data will be released at 8:30 am, which will determine the direction of the market. If retail sales data is better than expected, it will boost the stock market and continue to break through upwards. If the data is lower than expected, it is likely to return to the lower boundary of the range, confirming whether the support is effective.
The market generally expects the data to continue its downward trend, recording a decline of 0.4%. Bank of America predicts that it will be "very pessimistic." This week's decline in both US CPI and PPI confirms the cooling of inflation, and this morning's retail sales data may further strengthen expectations that the Fed's interest rate hike cycle is nearing its end.
Boosted by the positive PPI data, NDX opened high and continued to rise throughout the day, closing with a large bullish candle. Currently, the daily chart still shows a range-bound market.
Today, retail sales data will be released at 8:30 am, which will determine the direction of the market. If retail sales data is better than expected, it will boost the stock market and continue to break through upwards. If the data is lower than expected, it is likely to return to the lower boundary of the range, confirming whether the support is effective.
The market generally expects the data to continue its downward trend, recording a decline of 0.4%. Bank of America predicts that it will be "very pessimistic." This week's decline in both US CPI and PPI confirms the cooling of inflation, and this morning's retail sales data may further strengthen expectations that the Fed's interest rate hike cycle is nearing its end.