NAS/QQQ Weekend Levels (July 11-15)
Here is a look at the levels for the Nasdaq going into the week of July11 -15. Some key data coming out this week as well as the start of earnings season. Below are some key points I am watching.
• Current bias BEARISH ==> Neutral
• Coming off a 4.6% rally
• The downward trendline was broken to the upside and trading above 9/21 ema cloud
• 55 ema now an upside target
• Yields have been dropping along with oil . Many talking peak inflation
• Inflation coming down, but recession worries still top of mind
• Week ahead is data heavy with CPI & PPI data released
• Earnings season begins again with reports from the big US banks
• Rally last week can not be trusted until we see daily close above the June 27th pivot .
• Nasdaq may still need to re-test the 21 ema before going higher
• Indexes are attempting to base but no confirmation of a new uptrend yet.
WEEKLY EVENTS
Monday Fed’s Williams Speaks & OPEC Monthly Report (22:00pst)
Tuesday Fed’s Barkin Speaks
Wednesday CPI Data, Bank of Canada Rate Decision & EIA Crude Inventories
Thursday US Initial Jobless claims, US PPI data & Fed’s Waller Speaks
Friday US Retail Sales, US industrial Production, University of Mich Sentiment
NOTABLE EARNINGS
Monday PEP , PSMT
Tuesday
Wednesday DAL, FAST
Thursday JPM , MS , TSM , AOUT
Friday BLK , C, USB , UNH , WFC
BULLISH NOTES
Positive price momentum
Earnings momentum
Still oversold conditions
Yields pulling back
Reduced inflation
Trading above 9/21 ema cloud on daily
BEARISH NOTES
Potential earning recession
Still in down trend
Potential high CPI reading
High risk of outlier event (Taiwan invasion?)
Most market participants expect at least one leg lower
Nasdaq likely to retest 21 ema
• Current bias BEARISH ==> Neutral
• Coming off a 4.6% rally
• The downward trendline was broken to the upside and trading above 9/21 ema cloud
• 55 ema now an upside target
• Yields have been dropping along with oil . Many talking peak inflation
• Inflation coming down, but recession worries still top of mind
• Week ahead is data heavy with CPI & PPI data released
• Earnings season begins again with reports from the big US banks
• Rally last week can not be trusted until we see daily close above the June 27th pivot .
• Nasdaq may still need to re-test the 21 ema before going higher
• Indexes are attempting to base but no confirmation of a new uptrend yet.
WEEKLY EVENTS
Monday Fed’s Williams Speaks & OPEC Monthly Report (22:00pst)
Tuesday Fed’s Barkin Speaks
Wednesday CPI Data, Bank of Canada Rate Decision & EIA Crude Inventories
Thursday US Initial Jobless claims, US PPI data & Fed’s Waller Speaks
Friday US Retail Sales, US industrial Production, University of Mich Sentiment
NOTABLE EARNINGS
Monday PEP , PSMT
Tuesday
Wednesday DAL, FAST
Thursday JPM , MS , TSM , AOUT
Friday BLK , C, USB , UNH , WFC
BULLISH NOTES
Positive price momentum
Earnings momentum
Still oversold conditions
Yields pulling back
Reduced inflation
Trading above 9/21 ema cloud on daily
BEARISH NOTES
Potential earning recession
Still in down trend
Potential high CPI reading
High risk of outlier event (Taiwan invasion?)
Most market participants expect at least one leg lower
Nasdaq likely to retest 21 ema
Comment:
Pulling back into the EMA cloud. Watching for a lower time frame reversal pattern in the green box. Below the green box I would feel much more bearish. Above the June 27th pivot more bullish.
Comment:
I've been away so less updates this week. The price action on Wed/Thur was volatile with the data drops and Fed head speeches. Despite disappointing data, however the closes the past two days have been bullish. The trendline was recovered and price is trading above the 11690 level which I see as bullish. Currently price has run back into the 21 ema. If the 21 ema can be broken there is a good chance we see a move up to the 55 ema. A move back below the white ascending trendline would be bearish. Keep in mind Friday is OPEX which can lead to price getting locked at an level where max premium will be lost.
Comment:
Price stuck in a range to close out the week after a positive. Open with OPEX today I would not be surprised to see it close out somewhere in the box where max premium expires worthless. Lets see how it plays out.
Comment:
