NQ/QQQ Weekly Levels (Nov14-18)
The Nasdaq closed the week up 8.79% after trading a in a massive range of 1077 points. Price closed at the high of the week above 9/21/55 emas and the Oct 25th pivot high. The Nasdaq has also broke out of the 1.5 month range and is well above the June 16th low putting the longer term downward trendline and the 200 sma into play. Below are few points I am considering.
• Coming off massive +8.79% weekly gain
• Above 9/21/55 ema
• Broke out of 1.5 month consolidation above Oct 25th pivot high
• Key driver is declining CPI data
• Historically bullish period of the year
• DXY & 10 year bond yields have pulled back significantly
• 200 sma now price magnet
• Bullish price action remains in the context of a longer term down trend
• Watch for Fed Head walk back (Hawkish commentary to dampen market euphoria)
• High number of Fed Heads making speeches this week
• Major retailers WMT, TGT, HD & LOW report this week + big China names BABA & JD
WEEKLY EVENTS
Monday Fed’s William’s & Brainard Speak
Tuesday US PPI & NY Fed Manufacturing + Fed’s Cook, Harker & Elderson Speak
Wednesday US Retail Sales, BoC CPI & US Industrial Production
Thursday Fed’s Bostic, Bullard, Jefferson & Kashkari speak + US Initial Jobless Claims & Housing Starts
Friday US Existing Home Sales
NOTABLE EARNINGS
Monday SNDL, TSN,
Tuesday AAP, BHP, HD, SE, WMT, DNUT
Wednesday CSCO, LOW, NVDA, SONO, TGT, YY, TJX, GLBE
Thursday AMAT, BJ, GPS, M, PANW, BABA, WB, FTCH,
Friday FL, JD
BULLISH NOTES
Coming off massive 10% bullish reversal
Above 9/21/55 EMAs
Above 1.5-month consolidation
CPI data shows reduced inflation
DXY & 10y have pulled back
200 SMA magnet
Bullish period for stocks
Momentum Funds will be flipping bullish on technicals
BEARISH NOTES
Market short term overbought
Pull back to breakout point & EMAs possible
Potential hawkish commentary from Fed Heads
Potential fall out/contagion from Crypto plunge (FTX)
Potential Russian/Ukraine shock event (TNW)
Potential spike in Oil due to Russia & SPR drain
• Coming off massive +8.79% weekly gain
• Above 9/21/55 ema
• Broke out of 1.5 month consolidation above Oct 25th pivot high
• Key driver is declining CPI data
• Historically bullish period of the year
• DXY & 10 year bond yields have pulled back significantly
• 200 sma now price magnet
• Bullish price action remains in the context of a longer term down trend
• Watch for Fed Head walk back (Hawkish commentary to dampen market euphoria)
• High number of Fed Heads making speeches this week
• Major retailers WMT, TGT, HD & LOW report this week + big China names BABA & JD
WEEKLY EVENTS
Monday Fed’s William’s & Brainard Speak
Tuesday US PPI & NY Fed Manufacturing + Fed’s Cook, Harker & Elderson Speak
Wednesday US Retail Sales, BoC CPI & US Industrial Production
Thursday Fed’s Bostic, Bullard, Jefferson & Kashkari speak + US Initial Jobless Claims & Housing Starts
Friday US Existing Home Sales
NOTABLE EARNINGS
Monday SNDL, TSN,
Tuesday AAP, BHP, HD, SE, WMT, DNUT
Wednesday CSCO, LOW, NVDA, SONO, TGT, YY, TJX, GLBE
Thursday AMAT, BJ, GPS, M, PANW, BABA, WB, FTCH,
Friday FL, JD
BULLISH NOTES
Coming off massive 10% bullish reversal
Above 9/21/55 EMAs
Above 1.5-month consolidation
CPI data shows reduced inflation
DXY & 10y have pulled back
200 SMA magnet
Bullish period for stocks
Momentum Funds will be flipping bullish on technicals
BEARISH NOTES
Market short term overbought
Pull back to breakout point & EMAs possible
Potential hawkish commentary from Fed Heads
Potential fall out/contagion from Crypto plunge (FTX)
Potential Russian/Ukraine shock event (TNW)
Potential spike in Oil due to Russia & SPR drain
Comment:
Bullish start to the week, but rejected late in the day at the 1.13 Fib X. Price is currently in the false breakout zone. A move above the 1.13 Fib X increases the odds of bullish continuation. Treat the level as resistance until its not. PCI data due out tomorrow.
Comment:
Volatile price moves but respecting the levels. Broke out of the False breakouts zone above the 1.13 Fib X and made it to the 1.272 Fib X and was rejected. On a move below the 1.13 expect a move back to the 55 ema. Above the 1.272 expect a move up to the 618 Fib or higher. .
Comment:
Could not reclaim the 1.13 FibX and has pulled back over night into the 55 ema and the 9 ema. Looking for support in the green box between the 382 fib and 21 ema.
Comment:
NQ never dipped lower yesterday after selling into the 382 fib. I was expecting a deep move into the 21 ema, but buyer came in early. So far bullish continuation this morning. Upside target is 1.272 ( 12104). Above that the 618 Fib RT. Remember this is monthly OPEX so price can get pinned in a zone depending on where most of the call/put premium sits.
