NQ/QQQ Weekend Look (Oct 11-15)

Here is a refreshed chart heading into the second week of Oct. Best to keep it simple this week. Currently price has fallen back below the neutral zone, remains below the 50sma and has tested the key 15000 level one more time and has been rejected. Until price can work it way back above these areas I am expecting sideways to down price action. If the sell off resumes the green areas below and the 200sma would be areas to watch for a bounce or reversal. The bias is sideways price action going into next week. Most traders will be look ahead to 3rd quarter earning season.
10 year yield remains a concern along inflation and China's growing aggression toward Taiwan. Check back during the week as I up date these chart regularly.

Of Note:

Wed.. Fed minutes
Thurs... Jobless claims and Crude inventories
Fri... Retail sales

Comment:

Price made an early run back up to the neutral but was rejected immediately signaling that there was no appetite for continued buying. This morning price is bouncing again but so far without strong conviction. We are in a waiting mode right now heading into the beginning of bank earnings tomorrow and the FOMC minutes. Do not be surprised to see continued choppy price action until we get a solid catalyst.

Comment:

So far a positive reaction to the FOMC minutes despite the fact the minutes more or less confirmed that tapering would begin after the next meeting. The rally is is likely due to the a drop in the 10 year yield. Here is a chart showing the two key pivots (red dots) to watch tomorrow and Friday.

Comment:

Price has broken the key upper pivot (chart above) and sailed through the 15000. It is now at the downward trend line. Just above the trendline is the 618 fib (top of neutral) and the 55 daily sma. I would expect resistance in this area but keep in mind we may have a lot of short covering going on as many traders were likely trapped from shorts below. Also today is OPEX which can make for some unpredictable price movement.