NQ/QQQ Weekly Levels (Oct24-28)
NQ finish the week up 5.72% after trading in a range of 700 points. The move featured a Monday rally from below the Jun 16th low, a pull back for the next 3 days and then another rally to close the week at the highs. Price is now back above the 9/21 emas, the June 15th low and has broken the recent downward trend line. The weekly close was bullish, but in the context of the higher time frame the NQ still sits precariously on the edge of the June 16th pivot low. Heavy week of earning ahead with reports from the key mega cap stocks. Below are a few points I am considering this week.
• Coming off +5.72% Weekly gain
• Above 9/21 emas & June 16th low
• Broke downward trendline
• Heavy week of earnings ahead
• Canadian & ECB rate decisions are key economic events
• Strong seasonal period for tech has begun
• Strong seasonal period for S&P begins next week
• Watch for follow through pull back in bond yield & DXY
• Market still waiting on panic market flush with VIX spike above 40
• AMZN, AAPL, META, MSFT, GOOG report this week
WEEKLY EVENTS
Monday US S&P PMI Flash
Tuesday US CB Consumer Confidence & Fed Waller Speaks
Wednesday BoC Rate Decision, US New Home Sales & US EIA Crude
Thursday ECB Rate Decision, US Initial Jobs Claims & Durable Goods
Friday Canadian GDP, US Consumer Confidence & University Mich. Sentiment
NOTABLE EARNINGS
Monday BOH, CLS, DFS, LOGI
Tuesday MMM, ADM, BIIB, CNC, CLF, KO, CLW, GE, GM, HAL, JBLU, KMB, RTX, UPS, GOOG, ENPH, MAT, MSFT, SPOT, TXN, UHS, V
Wednesday AVY, BA, BSX, BMY, HOG, HLT, KHC, OTIS, STX, WM, CP, CLR, F, LC, META, NOW, SAVE, TDOC, URI, WFC
Thursday MO< BUD, AN, CCJ, CAT, CMCSA, HTZ, HON, KDP, MA, MCD, MRK, NOC, BTU, RCL, SHOP, LUV, SWK, TWTR, WDC, XEL, AMZN, AAPL, FSLR, PINS, SGEN, TMUS, X
Friday ABBV, CVX, CL, XOM, FTS, GWW,
BULLISH NOTES
Above 9/21 emas
Above June 16th low
Broke downward trendline
Potential for more short covering
Potential positive reactions to heavy earnings week
Potential pull back in bond yields and USD
Light week for economic data and Fed head talks
BEARISH NOTES
NQ still sitting on the edge of key Jun 16th pivot
Below 55 ema
Potential negative reaction to heavy earnings week
Potential continued move higher in bond yields & USD
Escalation of Ukraine war
Potential hawkish commentary by fed
• Coming off +5.72% Weekly gain
• Above 9/21 emas & June 16th low
• Broke downward trendline
• Heavy week of earnings ahead
• Canadian & ECB rate decisions are key economic events
• Strong seasonal period for tech has begun
• Strong seasonal period for S&P begins next week
• Watch for follow through pull back in bond yield & DXY
• Market still waiting on panic market flush with VIX spike above 40
• AMZN, AAPL, META, MSFT, GOOG report this week
WEEKLY EVENTS
Monday US S&P PMI Flash
Tuesday US CB Consumer Confidence & Fed Waller Speaks
Wednesday BoC Rate Decision, US New Home Sales & US EIA Crude
Thursday ECB Rate Decision, US Initial Jobs Claims & Durable Goods
Friday Canadian GDP, US Consumer Confidence & University Mich. Sentiment
NOTABLE EARNINGS
Monday BOH, CLS, DFS, LOGI
Tuesday MMM, ADM, BIIB, CNC, CLF, KO, CLW, GE, GM, HAL, JBLU, KMB, RTX, UPS, GOOG, ENPH, MAT, MSFT, SPOT, TXN, UHS, V
Wednesday AVY, BA, BSX, BMY, HOG, HLT, KHC, OTIS, STX, WM, CP, CLR, F, LC, META, NOW, SAVE, TDOC, URI, WFC
Thursday MO< BUD, AN, CCJ, CAT, CMCSA, HTZ, HON, KDP, MA, MCD, MRK, NOC, BTU, RCL, SHOP, LUV, SWK, TWTR, WDC, XEL, AMZN, AAPL, FSLR, PINS, SGEN, TMUS, X
Friday ABBV, CVX, CL, XOM, FTS, GWW,
BULLISH NOTES
Above 9/21 emas
Above June 16th low
Broke downward trendline
Potential for more short covering
Potential positive reactions to heavy earnings week
Potential pull back in bond yields and USD
Light week for economic data and Fed head talks
BEARISH NOTES
NQ still sitting on the edge of key Jun 16th pivot
Below 55 ema
Potential negative reaction to heavy earnings week
Potential continued move higher in bond yields & USD
Escalation of Ukraine war
Potential hawkish commentary by fed
Comment:
Late update as I have been away for a few days missing the the 330 point rally leading into mega cap earnings. The rally pushed through the 382 Fib and stopped at the Oct 5th pivot high. Post GOOG/MSFT earnings NQ gave back 230 point quickly. Price now sits between the 21 ema and the 55 ema. Price will need to reclaim the 382 Fib to continue the upward momentum.
Comment:
Attempted to reclaim the 382 Fib this morning but was rejected after a strong push up. 21 ema remains key support below. The recent high is key resistance above.
Comment:
Pull back overnight into the 21 ema has happened. Got a bounce back into previous days open on the GDP data. 21 ema will be my bull/bear line today. So far price is holding above it.
Comment:
Feels like a stop hunting flush below 21 ema right to upward trendline. A red to green move would be bullish with the 21 as downside risk.
Comment:
Never got the red to green move and price failed to hold the 21 ema and the trendline crashing back down to the June 16th low. Volatile and difficult price action to trade. The June 16th low continues to be a support key level. A move below it would be very bearish. Above the 21 ema and the downward trend line are now resistance.
