NAZ looking weak and currently at yesterday low, looking for NAZ to test 14967 and then below at 14765. Expect a slight bounce in Overnight and then decline at Open. NAZ will most likely test the 7/27 low 14765, not sure on exact movement. At some point, I would expect a bounce as "dip buyers" will come in. Blue line at 14920 may see some bouncing between it and 14967. No pass at 14967 will most likely target lower level at 14765. We will see what the Dip Buyers feel about the dip? Remember that tomorrow is Month end, could get extra whippy.
Comment:
Updated call with 2 TL's, PB support at 14832. NAZ should follow one of TL's to the Close and may switch between the upper and lower:
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14910 20 may present some resistance on way up, under look to Short back to 14840.
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14874 is Mid point and 14876 is 23% retrace, this may be 1st bounce test for NAZ as we look at Dip Buyers reaction.
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Look for the range 14836 to 14906 to be major range of action. Short at upper and Long at lower.
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1st bounce test hit 14878, look to pass 14906 to confirm direction and under stay short or short rallies.
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Testing 14870, 1st trade Short from 14900 to 14875, take profit or leave.
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14906 to 14836 is good, NAZ went from 14906 to 14845 as Short and is bouncing, Buy at lower and sell at upper until failure. You should be long at 14845 or 50, take to 74 and place Stop at buy in.
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NAZ may produce DB at 14845 for better bounce up to 14900 at 14863 now. let move to 45 and see if bigger Long move develops, stop to 40 or 45.
Comment:
14850 Long got to 72, Take profit and re buy at dip on DB or leave
Comment:
NAZ hitting Mid point at 75, targeting Top if stays above mid point. Stepping away for a few hours.
Comment:
NAZ Long from 50 DB to 14906 +56, Short o6 to 80 +26, Long from 85 to 14920 +35, NAZ may rollover here at 14940
Comment:
NAZ having trouble at 14967, Short under. sideways for a bit.
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14940 is Rollover area watch level and wait for Dow, SP and Russell to go lower. NAZ may lead these lower by EOD. Month end selling may step in.
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Rolling over and may follow yellow arrow.
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Caution, NAZ may start to sell rallies. Look for under 14967. Selling rallies vs buying dips, higher probability for now.
Comment:
stay short under 40.
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selling is weakening.
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Blue Line at 18 is now support.
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Look at 18 Long retrace trade
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18 Long should hit 40
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EU close, should see pop, target at 40 hit, +22 May hold for 80, your call.
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Day total +145 vs negative 85 day
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Dip buying is still very active, the Close will validate. We may see drop in final hour, otherwise Look to Long side. Caution, think of all buyers yesterday that bought at 15080 as we get closer they would be wanting to sell out.
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On Long, Unlikely but NAZ could be targeting 15009. I would think that 14967 area (give or take 15 points) will hold NAZ to declining by EOD. No Trade here just forecast.
Comment:
See if this plays out, M forming on 30M:
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Original note regarding the Blue Line and 14067 having bouncing activity has been an all day channel. A break above or below will run further. Seeing high negative ticks, betting to downside and Amazon has not rebound at all. Not sure what is lifting the NAZ, FNG1 is also down 1.25%.
Comment:
M formation dropped to near Blue Line and bounced, fast. Careful on Shorting, every dip gets bought quickly. Could be market makers and speculators propping? We will see by the close (if big sell off).
Comment:
Interesting note at 2:27 at 14946, Equilibrium is at 14942 and ave close price is 14888, lets see why discrepancy or where NAZ closes.
Trade closed manually:
Mild close and 1 minute after, the NAZ gets pushed pass or above trouble level of 14967. We will continue to see dips gets bought, most likely back to recent top, should be easy trading back up. Go long next trade or on any drop.