NQ/QQQ Weekly Levels & Trade Prep (Aug28-Sep1)

SUMMARY

• NQ finished the week with a gain of 1.55% after trading in a range of 692 pts.
  
• NQ is trading below the Mar 29th high & 9/21/55 emas.
  
• First support is still the 236 Fib RT
  
• Price is still above the HTF 618 Fib and Aug16th high
  
• Sectors finished mixed with XLK & XLY leading and XLE pulling back. However XLE still showing near term relative strength.
  
• Catalyst for continued sell off is rising bond yields.
  
• Still in a seasonally weak period of the year.
  
• Long term bias remains bullish but deeper pull back to the lower trendline is still posible.
  
• If price breaks below the lower trendline a full compound correction to the Aug 16t th high is possible.
  
• Watching 10 yields as they test the 2008 high at 4.27 %
  
• Earning season finishes up with reports from CRM, CRWD, LULU and NIO.
  

ECONOMIC EVENTS

• MON Fed's Barr speaks
  
• TUES US CB Consumer Confidence, US JOLTS Job Openings & Fed's Barr speaks
  
• WED US ADP Employment Change, US GDP & EIA Crude Oil Inventories
  
• THUR US PCE, US Jobless Claims & Fed's Collins speaks
  
• FRI US Employment Rate, Non Farm Payrolls, CAD GDP, US S&P Manufacturing & Fed's Mester speaks
  

EARNINGS

• MON Nothing notable
  
• TUES BBY, BMO, BNS, BOX, HPE, NIO, SJM
  
• WED CRM, CRWD, OKTA, PSTG, VEEV
  
• THUR CIEN, CM, CPB, DG, ESTG, LULU
  
• FRI Nothing notable
  

BULLISH NOTES

• Starting week above 236 Fib RT / 100 SMA support
  
• Potential bounce off lower trendline and Aug 16th high
  
• NQ remains in the long term bull zone. Above high time frame 618 Fib RT.
  
• Up trend remains in place if pull back stays above 50% Fib RT
  
• Potential positive reaction to Non Farm Payrolls
  
• Potential drop in bond yields.
  

BEARISH NOTES

• Price rejected at the Mar 29th high
  
• Trading below 9, 21 & 55 emas
  
• Seasonally weak period of the year for stocks
  
• NQ may need to test the Aug 16th high & lower trendline
  
• A move below the Aug 16h high would drop price out of the bull zone.
  
• Potential negative reaction to Non Farm Payrolls
  
• Potential 10 year yield move above 4.27%
  
• 200 SMA is now a potential downside magnet
  
• VIX is rising
  

Comment:

$NQ_F started the week consolidated just above the daily 55 and just below the daily 21 ema. Price has now broken above the 21 putting last Wed high in play. So first upside target is 15400. The Wed high represents the right shoulder of the large Head & Shoulders topping pattern ppl are watching. A break above the Wed high would negate the H&S.

Comment:

Here's a look at the H&S pattern everyone is watching. I believe the right shoulder actually peaked on Thurs not Wed.

Comment:

Today's upside target of 15400 has been achieved. Now looking for price to establish support above 15417. If it can find support there a move back to the Mar 29th high is possible. A hard rejection at the 15400 level could send prices back down to recent lows, however, as we have seen many full reversals this year. Best to focus on the key levels and trade above and below them.

Comment:

$NQ_F Price has worked its way back above the Jun 16th pivot which is bullish. Close today will be key today as it is the last day of Aug going into a long weekend. I will remain bullish above the June 16th high. If price drops back below the level a retest of the daily 21 ema is possible.