Past 2 days have mostly been from off session PA, easy to move in a direction. Time for NAZ to get back in its BOX. Yellow arrow is EOD Tuesday target. NAZ should stall tonight, drop after Open, then sideways to lower by close. Get propped some by Monday Open, drop after Open and start to move back in Box deeper by Tuesday close. Or, they can erase 50% or a 7 month drop in 3-4 days. This would raise some eyebrows and who wants that.
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350 of 865 are Open Session points. Day 1 of bounce was because of why? And at a crucial zone. Said this could happen, just not so easily or quickly. When it has in the past (air pocket) it usually comes back down. And we still never saw any big limit down Overnights during a 7 month Bear, really.
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Check out my June 20th post's, still active. I should have used them, not joking. (Overtrading!)
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Asian markets are lower tonight, that is somewhat interesting.
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Bloomberg comment: This has been the best post Fed Decision market reaction in the history of Equity Markets. Things is started just after the Close on 7/26. Again, 60% of these gains have come in off session moves, The Fed Decision happens during Open Session Hours, correct? I feel a developing Air Pocket.
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Should the Rally continue, the following is a recent fact that did happen during this Bear. Be open minded to the idea or extreme of a huge rally that could fail and drop even deeper. The March 15th pop gave it all back and then some. We will see this, should the AH sessions continue to primarily move up.
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Upper Range
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Just woke up, IDS showing a Sell Signal with Target below. The High was the Low of March 15th.
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Diagonal TL, have not seen one of these in awhile. The NAZ usually struggles with these. Yellow line below is IDS Target.
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BL Chart, 12585 is now Support and Most Likely the NAZ will retest this over the next few days.
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If you area a Scalper and use IDS, you Buy on Red Bars when NAZ is above/near White Line and Short on whites when NAZ is under/near Red Line. Very time intensive but can pay off. IDS 27 is below, I use 20,27 & 50 Range Bars.
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IDS 20/27, 27 left/20 right. Yellow Vert is 20 signal / Red Vert is 27 confirm of Short. Yellow Line on 27 Stoch is Divergence Signal, then the NAZ did drop. Here you expect a retrace to 12894, if shorting stop would be above that. On both, you see a potential Long developing here.
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Long at 12850 For 50 point take profit.
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Stop at 12835
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Stopped on news break -15, should try for near 12880 ish for test.
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Long at 12815
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Stop at 12800, target 12850 take profit
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This is what I am trying to play. Stepping away for 1 hour. The Diag TL may be a problem all day. You can view previous Posts that will show this many many times.
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You can see the idea of Trade, IDS left is 840 and near long target, Also the Short trade. This is what I meant by very time intensive. Stoped out on last trade, but 10 points off on reversal.
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Today, Diag TL is your friend with Shorting until it is not.
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Couple Signals on Long
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Back to Diag TL, start Shorting with stop.
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Hard to trade when the NAZ does not move, then moves like a currency with Blast Pops. Scalping will be key if you are not sold on this Pop. ML/BOA warned on fading Bear Market Rally. NAZ still under O/N High, may approach, stall and drop. No Drop today near High, look long and Trail up, stepping away. Flat, prior comment above was not an actual call, just note. When I make a call I will state so with BUY/SHORT price, target and stop.
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Box is all AH PA, Open did test low and now at high, look for range play.
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I have never seen the NAZ Not Move, this is bazaar.
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Short should play out under Top of 1st 30M.
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Back to Top of 1st 30M, NAZ is still only inside AH Range and Nothing new after Open.
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Normally this would be a Hook Short, may try for Range Top should pass Top 1st 30M.
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No Trade zone as we are in Mid Range, sideways to late rally higher is likely. Propping Sunday into Monday. NAZ needs to get to AH in order to get gains. You can look short, doubt that we see any major low into Box. NAZ Bounced off Box Top three times. Hook Short to Box Top Bounce is also likely.
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You can see Divergence set up on Short, Yellow Lines.
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No decision Level, twice. No way to know next move.
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We have the toughest job, won't buy in like the FOMO Dip Buyer (who has been wrong for 8-9 months) and tough to short since we know the intraday PA is not normal at all, mystery moves come out of left field. Need to sleep in AH and know that is the most likely time the good movement (original) happens. As I type this, Hook Short did not happen and NAZ is floating back to top of range. Still in AH Range of play and nothing is new with gains. True buying would continue from AH high and push it higher. Watch the PA at Range high, it was almost stationary last time.
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Price Action on drops is much easier to see and has some strength behind it. The Longs just seem to Float Up with very little strength. Hard for me to take the melt ups, they constantly look like they are about to fall. In normal Bull Days, the Longs look much better and look more like the Short in this example.
Trade closed manually:
NAZ only gained 20 points above ON High, not real strong. Weekend Prop to follow.
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The Yellow arrow will show the Short Signal, Do not go Short unless you see the Yellow Line.
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IDS 20 and 27, 20 will show early signal. Many times the 20 is false. Wait for both and use 20 as warning. Yellow should be under Red Simple Line with Price.